Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll June 2014

Israelis and Palestinians still hope negotiations will resume

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Despite the halt in Israeli Palestinian negotiations, 66% of the Palestinians and 52% of the Israelis think that these negotiations will resume. At the same time each side continues to view the intentions of the other as posing an existential threat. Regarding conflict resolution: consistent with previous results – 62% of Israelis and 54% of Palestinians support a two-state solution.

These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

  • Given the halt in Israeli Palestinian negotiations, 14% of the Israelis and 36% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will soon return to negotiations. 38% of the Israelis and 30% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed attacks will take place. By contrast, 28% of the Israelis and 16% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place. 7% of the Israelis and 13% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks.
  • At the same time, each side perceives the other side as constituting a threat to its very existence. 55% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals in the long run are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens. 26% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. 31% of the Israelis think that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel; 20% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel.
  • Regarding conflict resolution – consistent with previous results: 62% of Israelis and 54% of Palestinians support a two-state solution.

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between June 5 and 7, 2014. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 605 adult Israelis interviewed in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between June 8 and 15, 2014. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Ifat Maoz, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, and the Department of Communication, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof. Khalil Shikaki, at email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Prof. Ifat Maoz at email msifat@mscc.huji.ac.il.

MAIN FINDINGS

(A) Conflict management and threat perceptions

  • Given the halt in Israeli Palestinian negotiations, we asked both sides about their expectations for the future: 14% of the Israelis and 36% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will soon return to negotiations. 38% of the Israelis and 30% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed attacks will take place. 28% of the Israelis and 16% of the Palestinians think that some armed attacks will take place and the two sides will not return to negotiations. Finally, 7% of the Israelis and 13% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks.
  • Among Israelis, 51% are worried and 47% are not worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life. Among Palestinians, 77% are worried and 23% are not worried that they or a member of their family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished.
  • The level of threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other side in the long run is very high. 55% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 26% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. The modal category among Israelis is that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel (31%); 20% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. Only 18% of the Palestinians think Israel’s aspirations in the long run are to withdraw from part (11%) or all (7%) of the territories occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security. 41% of Israelis think the aspirations of the Palestinians are to regain all (23%) or some (18%) of the territories conquered in 1967.
  • At the same time: 14% of the Israelis say the aspirations of Israel are to withdraw to the 1967 borders after guaranteeing Israel’s security. 35% say they are to withdraw from parts of the territories after guaranteeing Israel’s security. 15% say they are to annex the West Bank without granting political rights to the Palestinians living there. 13% say they are to annex the West Bank and expel the Palestinians living there.
  • Among the Palestinians 40% say that the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO are to regain some of the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 25% say they are to regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 16% say they are to conquer the State of Israel and regain control over the pre 1948 Palestine. 12% say they are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel.

(B) NEGOTIATION TRACKS ON THE AGENDA

The Saudi Plan

  • 29% of the Israelis and 50% of the Palestinians support the Saudi peace plan, 64% of the Israelis and 46% of the Palestinians oppose it. In December 2013, 47% of the Palestinians supported the Saudi plan and 50% opposed it, while 33% of the Israelis supported and 64% opposed it. The plan calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugee problem will be resolved through negotiations in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with Israel and establish normal diplomatic relations.

The Israeli-Palestinian Track

  • Dismantling settlements: 44% of the Israelis support and 51% oppose the dismantling of most of the settlements in the West Bank as part of a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
  • Mutual Recognition: As we do periodically in our joint polls, we asked Israelis and Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition as part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows that 52% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual recognition and 38% oppose it. Among Palestinians, 40% support and 59% oppose this step. In December 2013, 58% of the Israelis supported and 34% opposed this mutual recognition; among Palestinians, the corresponding figures were similar to the current poll (43% support and 56% oppose).
  • Palestinian state alongside Israel: 62% of Israelis and 54% of Palestinians support the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, known as the two-state solution and 34% of Israelis and 46% of Palestinians oppose it. In December 2013, 63% of Israelis and 53% of Palestinians supported a two-state solution and 32% of Israelis and 46% of Palestinians opposed it.

published

Israel, June 30, 2014