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Cover: The Socio-Economic Implications of Syrian Refugees on Jordan

The Socio-Economic Implications of Syrian Refugees on Jordan

A Cost-Benefit Framwork

By Khaled Wazani

Berlin, May 22, 2014

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With the Syrian conflict entering its fourth year, Jordan increasingly faces the challenge to cope with the influx of Syrian refugees. The need for deeper understanding of the refugee crisis in the public prompted KAS Jordan to examine the socio-economic impacts of the current refugee situation in Jordan more precisely together with Issnaad Consulting.


The study “The Socio-Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan – A Cost-Benefit Framework” by Dr. Khalid Al-Wazani, Chief Economist and Chairman/CEO of Issnaad Consulting, illuminates the costs of the refugee crisis for Jordan, but does not keep the economic benefits of the refugee crisis secret.


5 | List of Acronyms

7 | Introduction

9 | Acknowledgement

11 | Preface

13 | Chapter I: Jordan’s Economy – An Overwies on the Eve and Through the Crisis, 2010-2013

14 | 1. Overwiew of Jordan’s Economy on the Eve of the Crisis

21 | 2. Jordan’s Economy During the Crisis (2011-2013)

28 | 3. Jordan: International Commitments towards the Refugee Crisis

31 | Chapter II: The Syrian Economy: An Overview

32 | 1. The Syrian Economy before the Crisis

40 | 2. Syria’s Economy in the Crisis: Determinants and Challenges

51 | Chapter III: Developments of the Syrian Refugee Crisis with Specific Reference to Jordan

52 | 1. Jordan and Refugees: A Historical Review

54 | 2. The Present Problem of Syrian Refugees in Jordan: Facts and Figures

62 | 3. International Constraints on Refugees

63 | 4. Facts and Figures for Syrian Refugees across the Region

67 | Chapter IV: The Implications of the Crisis on Host Communities in Irbid and Mafraq – A Socio-Economic Perspective

68 | 1. Overview of Mafraq and Irbid Governorates

77 | 2. Challenges Imposed by the Crisis on Host Communities in Mafraq and Irbid

85 | Chapter V: A Matrix to Measure Socio-Economic Impacts of Syrian Refugees on Jordan’s Economy

87 | 1. Analysis and Estimation Method

93 | 2. Estimates of the Benefits of the Syrian Crisis for Jordan’s Economy on the Macroeconomic and Sectorial Levels

99 | 3. Estimated Costs Incurred by the Syrian Refugees Crisis on Jordan’s Macroeconomic and Sectorial Levels

111 | 4. The Final Trial Balance: Benefit-Cost Matrix

112 | 5. Key Social Impacts of the Crisis: Non-Quality Estimates

115 | Concluding Remarks


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