Building on the strong track record of Gateway House in research and international outreach on G20 through the T20 channel, the virtual Panel Discussion (14 January 2021) on “G20’s Future: Italy, Indonesia, India” was designed to raise awareness about the Italian presidency and its possible synergy with the two subsequent presidencies. It revolved around three key themes: macro view of G20’s role; sectoral questions ranging from health to economy, sustainable development and more; and specific country perspectives of the present and future Chairs.

G20’s role: Faced with a grave crisis created by the pandemic, G20, which held two virtual summits during 2020, performed quite well. Its tangible achievements included G20 Action Plan, Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and incremental progress on other important matters. The forum’s contribution may be measured by imagining as to the likely chaos and damage to the world economy if there were no G20. What G20 does is to develop a policy framework on global commons and ensure high-level coordination in cross-cutting sectors of economic development. So viewed, the forum performed quite well. It is, therefore, unfair to view it as “a talk shop.”

Multilateralism: The world needs more, not less, multilateral cooperation to resolve a host of challenges it faces. Multilateralism offers the best and perhaps the only path to international peace, security and prosperity. D10, the British-proposed grouping of democracies (as an expansion of G7), may have a useful role to play, but it cannot replace G20. The latter is free of ideological bias, and the presence of China gives it considerable weight.

Sectoral focus: G20 has been focussing on economy, health and sustainable development, with a special focus given to MSME by the B20 sub-forum.

Economy - A G20 success: Credit rating system has developed country bias, with norms created after the 2008 financial crisis. The 2020 pandemic needed different responses. Credit ratings of countries took a hit, forcing banks to set aside more capital to cover for the shock, rather than increase lending to ease the shock. Specialized bodies like the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and Financial Stability Board (FSB) saw this issue with an academic lens; but the G20, with its cross-functional structure and capacity, took a more practical, realistic view. The G20 members persuaded the BIS and FSB to review and reconsider the norms, and new norms are now in the Action Plan for change.

Health and Sustainable development: Germany began the Health Track in Hamburg in 2017, and Italy will re-emphasise it this year. The B20 Italy will focus on life science and global emergencies, learnings from the pandemic to prepare for what may come in the future, such as desertification, climate change, water issues. It will develop policy formulations so that business will be more aware and inclusive. The pandemic and the decoupling of the U.S. and China offer a common platform and opportunity for the G20 to be more effective on global macro policy. A prudent fiscal policy is needed to alleviate the immediate crisis relating to health, social assistance and support to small enterprises.

Focus of the B20: “Level playing field is a chimera. Business wants action, solutions with impact”, stressed Italy’s B20 Sherpa Marco Felisati. Focus will be on the MSME sector, which has contracted. Italy is “the land of the MSME” and will lead efforts in the G20 to create the policy tools and boost access to export credit and insurance to MSMEs. They must find their ways to international markets, and be innovative in making the best use of stimulus packages. New trade and investment commitments will be discussed at WTO. Regional value chains bring benefit in the short term, but for the long term, global value chains and foreign investment are necessary. Pandemic showed that there is not enough cooperation between customs authorities worldwide.

Country perspectives - Role of the three “I”s in the G20 2021-23: The three panelists representing Italy, Indonesia and India offered perspectives that largely matched with each other.

Italian presidency is driven by its guiding mantra of “three Ps” – ‘People, Planet, and Prosperity.’ Italy’s focus will be on a specific set of themes: health and prevention of future pandemics, economic recovery with MSMEs making a decisive contribution, cyber security, access to water, and climate change.

Indonesia may accord priority to three goals: combatting inequalities, ensuring sustainability – both financial and environmental, and increasing people’s access to benefits of digital technology.

India, sharing the Italian and Indonesian perspectives to a considerable extent, shall continue its intense combat against Covid-19, stabilise and expand economic growth making it more inclusive, and promote global cooperation and purposeful multilateralism as its chief instrument to assist the world community and assert its global leadership.