Negotiating a Peace Settlement with Yemen’s Houthi Rebels

The US administration now realizes that winding down the Yemen conflict requires more than simply cutting off arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Bringing the Houthis to roundtable talks is necessary in order to end the multifaceted war through a solution that allows all the major Yemeni groups to be secure and dignified. Yet with the Houthis having much power on the ground, convincing these Iran-backed rebels that negotiations, rather than continued warfare, best advances their interests will remain challenging.

Co-creating our future:

Civil society roles in silencing the guns and setting the agenda for more inclusive political settlements

As Yemenis struggle to end their six-years of war and achieve sustained peace, UN’s Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen Martin Griffiths is seeking to facilitate agreement between the Yemeni parties on a nationwide ceasefire, humanitarian and economic relief and a comprehensive and inclusive political negotiation process. While engaging those who are the primary parties in the fighting is essential, they alone are unable to create a path towards a more transformative peace process. Diverse elements of Yemini society will also need to be actively involved. This paper was intended to spark discussion at a workshop on this challenge. After setting forth several basic orienting points on the centrality of civil society roles in sustainable war-to-peace transitions, this paper then outlines five key challenges where their involvement can be crucial to cultivating transformative peace processes and more inclusive, responsive and capable states.

Pragmatische Giganten

Zur Entwicklungspolitik der Golfstaaten: Motive, Schwerpunkte und Kooperationspotenziale

„Neue Akteure“ der Entwicklungspolitik sind die Golfstaaten schon lange nicht mehr. Die Art und Weise, wie sie Entwicklungshilfe ausüben und welche Motive sie dabei antreiben, unterscheiden sie jedoch von westlichen Akteuren. Nichtsdestotrotz gibt es Anknüpfungspunkte, die eine Zusammenarbeit mit den „Giganten“ vom Golf möglich machen.

Bottom-up ceasefires and everyday peace

Everyday peace at localised level can disrupt dominant conflict narrative

Most academic and policy discussion of ceasefires concentrates on top-down, formal ceasefires. But can we conceive of bottom-up ceasefires? Certainly there are many examples of highly-localised ceasefires that are not mandated by superior bodies. Often they rely on the everyday peace skills of individuals and communities to spot opportunities and have the bravery to disrupt the dominant conflict narrative.

The Uphill Economic Recovery from Covid-19 in the Gulf Cooperation Council

GCC governments should spend in areas where it can make a long-term impact on productivity growth

The future of economic growth in the GCC is looking better than some analysts expected in the depths of the downturn in 2020. What may be different in this recovery compared to previous economic crises in the Gulf is a more limited fiscal policy space, and more variance among GCC countries in their ability to rebound with smart stimulus. As the global economic recovery now strengthens oil demand, taking advantage of this interim period of the global energy transition will mean accelerating government spending in areas where it can make a long-term impact on productivity growth and increased labor force participation among citizens in the private sector, especially women. Some governments will be able to accelerate productivity, including using highly skilled foreign labor and favorable long-term residency regimes, and others will be simply treading water to satisfy immediate demands of their populations.

German companies recognize GCC-wide opportunities

Faster regional economic integration would be a strong accelerator for economic diversification

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ current top priority lies in the transformation into diversified and knowledge-based economies led by the public and the private sector alike. Its mem-ber countries are making laudable efforts to attract foreign investment and to become a global business hub beyond the oil and gas industry. The transition towards renewable energy, such as solar and hydrogen, and investments in the manufacturing and industrial sector will drive innova-tion and employment. German companies, which are highly respected in the region, can expect to benefit from these developments, not only as suppliers of technology and know-how, but also as participants in a deeper regional economic integration. However, companies also face multiple challenges complying with the respective initiatives, espe-cially the countries’ individual programs to foster localization and national employment. While re-ducing youth unemployment and the development of local talent are both indisputable and desira-ble objectives, various regulations about employment quotas, localization processes and less-than-perfectly harmonized regulations across the GCC countries could curb the desired process of eco-nomic change and regional integration.

Civil society and ceasefire monitoring

Evidence from Nepal

So far, we know little about how ceasefire monitoring mechanisms support ceasefire compliance and peace processes in civil wars and of the role of domestic civil society in such mechanisms. This paper suggests that this is an important area of focus. Based on evidence from the conflict between Maoist insurgents and the government of Nepal, it shows that civil society monitors’ presence can effectively deter conflict parties from major ceasefire violations, especially in contexts where the parties are looking to access political power. Yet, key issues limit their effectiveness, notably the parties’ political will for the process, the monitors’ ability to remain detached from their political affiliations and ambitions and the design of the mechanisms.

Economic Diversification in the Gulf States

Challenges and Opportunities

The Regional Program Gulf States at Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, together with the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) and Doha Institute for Graduate Studies held a two-day workshop on May 25th & 26th entitled “Economic Diversification in the Gulf States: Challenges and Opportunities.” The workshop, which brought virtually together scholars from Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Germany discussed fiscal policies in Oman and Kuwait, the role of the private sector and MSE as economic vehicles toward economic diversification, the level of women participation in the private sector in Kuwait, Germany’s FDI and private companies in the Gulf States, and the opportunities for closer European-Gulf cooperation in terms of economic transformation. In their opening remarks, Mr. Fabian Blumberg, regional representative to the Gulf States, Dr. Haider Saeed, director of the research department at ACRPC, and Dr. Hamid Ali, dean of the School of Public Administration and Development Economics welcomed the distinguished speakers and underlined the importance of the theme of the workshop for the Gulf States. The workshop was well attended and diffused live on the social media of the ACRPC.

Saudi Arabia and Iran

From Bitter Confrontation to Bilateral Talks

In this policy report, the authors trace Saudi Arabia and Iran’s attempts to resume bilateral talks since 2016. They also discuss the motivations and the prospects of the recent talks between the two countries that are taking place in Iraq since last April. The authors argue that in order for the two parties to arrive at an agreement on a new regional security arrangement that serves their interests, this dialogue should be institutionalized, and trust-building steps should also be taken. This, the authors contend, could be done by establishing a permanent forum where the Gulf States and Iran can talk and cooperate on issues such as energy, maritime security, environment, and tourism before moving ahead to discuss the hard issues that are related to security.

Präsidentschaftswahl im Iran 2021

Von Wächterrat, Wahlboykott und Wettbewerbsverzerrung

Am 18. Juni wird im Iran ein neuer Präsident gewählt. In dem Bestreben, die Macht des Establishments zu stärken, hat die Wahlaufsicht des Regimes Kandidaten aus den Reihen der Moderaten und Reformkräfte disqualifiziert, was zu breiten Boykottaufrufen geführt hat. Der Wahlsieg des als Establishment-Spitzenkandidat gehandelten Ebrahim Raisi, der dem Obersten Führer Ali Khamenei nahesteht, scheint sicher. Eine Änderung der allgemeinen politischen Ausrichtung des Regimes wird nicht erwartet.