IVAN POPOV, HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

The EU 2050

In my view, the European Union is a unique system nowadays. I assume so because it is the only “over national” system which is pointed at permanent evolving of political, economic, social and cultural spheres of European community. I guess that this direction to build better life is the most important basis of the EU. It differs a lot from various political blocks of the 20th century according to the fact that their aims were to keep the peace and to show power to their opponents. The EU is absolutely different example. It uses non-fore methods in order to evolve and prosper. What is more, the EU does it in efficient way that is why I believe that it is a unique story. Besides I am absolutely sure that the EU is both Russian geographical neighbor and due to that our main partner. Consequently, it is extremely important for Russia and Russian citizens to understand how the EU and our relations will transform in the future.

I offer to divide the essay into three parts like it is parted in the topic. What will change in the EU? This is the trickiest part of the essay. 30 years is a long period of time especially in our modern conditions. In my view, the most important basis of the EU will be always constant. Under this basement I mean the respect of human rights and implementation the substance of the Treaty of Rome, the Treaty of Lisbon and the European Convention on Human Rights into reality. It is essential and I may repeat it many times. My point of view is that the EU will try to find better and more effective ways for the exercise of its own politics. As all voluntary and depended on membership unions the EU needs a very high level of political culture from all participants. They all should take into consideration and try to implement both binding and non-binding acts from the European legal entities. However, as we see, some members just wish to get the financial aid and they use less power to observe duties. I think this understanding has been realizing by “locomotives of the EU” in the last years, so I suggest that this comprehension might create a barrier for accepting new candidates into the EU. This idea becomes more actual in the scope that all perspective candidates are not very successful at economic and social spheres, in particular. I assume that the main goal of the EU is to inoculate to the whole population the culture “What is to be a European citizen”. In my opinion, it means high level of self-responsibility and absolute level of respect civil rights of others. That is the way which was chosen by Europe, that is the way which it should continue to follow. The necessity to absorb thousands of immigrants from all over the world and the necessity to demonstrate them the power of European ideals and values are urgent, in my view; but I really consider that the EU citizens are capable of to get success because they show wonderful willing to abide by liberal paths and it, of course, forms attractive attitude towards people of Europe. My idea is that people should get the point that they rule the world neither the politicians nor some several countries. And I am absolutely sure that the EU is exactly about it. It is about the powerful civil society which have all opportunities to make its will real. As the result, the EU depending on great and forceful civil institutions is going to solve all urgent problems such as migration crisis, terrorist attacks and economic instability of some regions. Besides, I guess the EU will be a great example of creating nature friendly and person friendly society because very important steps has been already done in this direction. Some of these steps are the second/third sexual revolution, creating the system of sustainable energy, marvelous support of civil rights.

As I has mentioned, I think that changes will happen in political sphere because of increasing the understanding by people the role of the EU and increasing of involvement simple citizens in the European political life. What will remain? Well, all best sides of the EU will be safe, I am confident about that. However, as so powerful and great unity the EU will continue to face with tremendous problems like the theory of balance declares. In my view, I guess the main advantage of the EU is that it does not need any external allies. Our world is going to pay for mistakes which have been done in the near future. And the EU is not the exception. We still have fundamental problems with relations between the West and the East; our international world system is in crisis because there is no two camps system and, in my view, countries, unions still can not find the best solution how to function in new conditions; ecological problems; diversities between the consuming society and the producing society; and etc. In my view, we have not solved these problems yet, so I have reason for saying that these problems will take place in the 2050s. The trouble is that the effect will be more perceived. Why I am pretty sure that the EU will face these challenges with dignity and preparedness? Because we have been seeing it during the Brexit. We have seen it during economic shocks in Greece, Iceland, Italy and Spain. The appearance of right-directed parties and their popularity will not affect the idea of the EU. Half of the EU and its population are already involved in processes taking place around the whole Europe. These connections plus globalization cement the EU for centuries. The EU is an ally for itself, so it has all resources to solve any rising challenge and it should not depend on the USA or Russia or China in order to safe its own interests.

I want to pay more attention for the question about Russia’s place in the EU of 2050. In my opinion, the case of Crimea has opened a new chapter in Russia-EU history. This situation has put the European community in controversial situation. Europeans should decide what is more important: legal principles, on which the EU is based, the principle of sovereignty in particular, or Russia as powerful economic partner? It seems that almost all Europeans have chosen the first variant and I respect their choice in any case. As the result, Crimea became the curse of our cooperation. I understand why Europeans are so furious about this case, but, in my view, they also should understand that, fortunately or unfortunately, Crimea as a piece of territory will be not returned to Ukraine. Even the most famous opposite politicians in Russia try to avoid this topic because they understand the consequences of such declarations: they will not get needed support. There is a famous phrase in Russia: «The time cures». I really believe that the moment of changing Russian political elite will some day happen. I guess it would be exactly the time of 2040s-2050s. Russian people will force a lot more challenges at this period especially the internal ones. I think it might a type of reload in this partnership because people who are responsible for that will not make decisions anymore.

If we exclude the topic Crimea from the answer I should say that Europe and Russia have enormous historical and cultural background. We have always been partners and neighbors and our seminars have just proved this view. I hope that we will come to the conclusion that the dominant factor in our relations should not be based on politics and propaganda. When people get this message their views on Russia-EU problems will differ. The mankind is on very important stage of its existence. Obviously Russia and the EU are the main forces in Europe – in the cradle of modern world, so we just must find compromises because global problems need global answers.

To sum up, I would like to say that the main idea of my essay is that everything in Russia-EU relations is based on common people, on us. We always should remember that history has already had terrifying examples of our conflicts, now we have to provide history with examples based on respect, tolerance and understanding each other. As for me, I have already realized that my mission as patriot of my country is to communicate with people from all Europe and to show them that the main desire of Russian people is to create fair-minded state on the basis of human rights. My main fear is that all events in neat future like 2050 will have irreversible effect on the whole mankind. We should keep our minds clear and pacific.

All in all, the EU is a radically new chapter in the history of Europe. It has all chances to become something pure and absolute which has no analogues in the world now, but this opportunity needs rational and wise decisions from legal bodies, support of all Europeans and sincere belief in ideals of the European Union.