NVDB005_-_CH_3.013._Middle_Powers,_Strategic_Approaches_-_David_Gregosz-2

65 — DP Vol. 05

Regional Security Dilemma: Trends, Directions, and Illusion

David Gregosz, born 1983 in Leinefelde/Thuringia, studied Economics and Political Science at the Philipps University Marburg. Since September 2020 he heads the office of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) in Warsaw/Poland. From 2017-2020 he coordinated the global International Economic Policy work of KAS. Before that, from October 2013-2017, he managed an office of KAS in South America (Santiago/Chile).

Thomas Behrens, born 1976 in Bonn, studied law at the Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg and political science at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-University Bonn. In 2011, he wrote his master’s thesis under Prof. Gerd Langguth on the topic of power-political asymmetry in German-Polish relations since 1998. Since April 2021 he serves as project coordinator at the Foreign Office of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) in Poland. Previously, he worked for several years as an independent, project-related employee for KAS Poland, as well as various partners of KAS Poland (Institute for Public Affairs (ISP), Centre for International Relations (CSM), Bertelmann Stiftung, Kreisau Foundation for European Understanding, etc.) and private companies.

Russia‘s military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 marks the most significant turning point in security policy since the end of the Cold War in 1989/90 and constitutes a watershed moment in international relations. Russia‘s aggression against this sovereign neighbour, whose citizens in recent years have (in a broad majority and increasingly so) sought to join the democratic and economically prosperous West, is now the fifth major war 1 that the country under the leadership of Vladimir Putin has waged in its geostra- tegic neighbourhood since the 1990s. The attack on Ukraine also represents a (repeated) violation of international law. This significantly undermines the European and international security architecture and has evoked overwhelming rejection and condem- nation worldwide. Impressively, this is documented in the adoption of UN Resolution ES-11/1 2 by the United Nations General Assembly on March 02, 2022.

Due to the increasingly ruthless warfare of the Russian armed forces, comprehensive military support from the West to Ukraine in the form of weapons deliv- eries and stand-by options is currently being inten- sively discussed. A movement of refugees towards the West has already begun, which experts estimate could ultimately involve up to 10 million people, as experts stated in March this year. 3 More worryingly, the conflict could also be extended to neighbouring countries such as the Baltic states or Poland by the nuclear armed

1 In detail: 1999-2009: Second Chechen War; 2008: war in Georgia; 2014: invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea; since 2014: military support for pro-Russian forces in the war in eastern Ukraine; 2015: military intervention on the side of the Assad regime in the Syrian civil war; 2022: invasion of Ukraine.

2 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/unga-resolution- against-ukraine-invasion-full-text.

3 https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/swiat/ artykuly/8372742,gerald-knaus-migracja-z-ukrainy-z-powodu- wojny-moze-uciec-nawet-10-milionow-ludzi.html.

Russian state, as Vladamir Putin’s longer-term regional strategy remains unknown.

Given this background, which issues are gaining new or renewed relevance in international relations? One of them is certainly the foreign policy strategy assess- ments of medium-sized states.

What characterises a middle power? Can a different positioning of medium-sized states in Europe be identified? Are these strategies now being debated and re-evaluated in light of the war in Ukraine? And what is the situation in Poland, which in terms of population, territory, its positive economic dynamics and geostra- tegic position in the region is one of the most important members of the European Union, that now, with its borders with Ukraine, Belarus and Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast), is surely be one of the countries most affected by the war in the East? With this in mind, how should Poland‘s recent foreign policy be assessed? And what strategic conclusions can be drawn for middle powers in other regions of the world - such as Cambodia in the Indo-Pacific?

The Concept of the “Middle Power“ in International Politics

Political science differentiates states in terms of power and influence into “world powers”, “middle powers” and “small states”. The first category - initially known as „great powers“, and later, during the Cold War (with reference to the US and the Soviet Union) even labelled „superpowers“, includes states that, due to their economic, military, diplomatic and cultural dominance, have the ability to exercise global hegemony. They are in a position to simultaneously influence devel- opments in several regions of the world in line with their own interests or to achieve their goals globally by means of power projection. Middle powers, on the