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9 — DP Vol. 05

Regional Security Dilemma: Trends, Directions, and Illusion

The hot stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war has been tormenting the world for almost 4 months. While the army, which was considered to be the world’s second strongest, has failed to gain any achievement that the autocratic regime could call a victory in order to start thinking of ceasing hostilities, the embattled nation is determined to defend every inch of its territory, and this determination is widely supported by the majority of countries in the world. The developments we have seen throughout these last 4 months allow for the prediction that there is no visible end of the war in sight if the aggressor still hopes to achieve tangible gains from this brutal violation of international law.

Yet, as the hostilities take place in far-away Europe, why should the ASEAN care?

On June 3, 2022 the UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres stated: “The conflict has already taken thousands of lives, caused untold destruction, displaced millions of people, resulted in unacceptable violations of human rights and is inflaming a three- dimensional global crisis – food, energy and finance – that is pummelling the most vulnerable people, countries and economies”. He also drew attention to the dangers and long-term implications of continued fighting and the potential escalation of hostilities for Ukraine, the wider region and the world.

The UN General Secretary mentioned only the economic consequences, among which the reper- cussions for agricultural and food markets are the most vital, especially for some ASEAN countries with vulnerable population groups that depend on imports of food, feed, fertilizers, and more.

The unravelling global food crisis is of an artificial nature - it has been provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine. The war is a primary reason for the ensuing food crisis, and it will be the end of the war, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian fields, the unblocking of Ukrainian sea-ports and finally the holding of Russia accountable – that solves the food crisis.

In order to ensure the long-term stability of agricultural markets in the ASEAN region and the world, in addition to coordinated inter-regional decisions on mitigating the negative impact of food trade disruption, collective effort should be made to end the current crisis and prevent a recurrence of such aggressive wars in the future.

Along with accountability in international economic relations, another pillar of the global security system is represented by the responsible attitude of nucle- ar-weapon states to their commitments under the

Nataliya Zhynkina is the Ukrainian Deputy Ambassador and Political Counsellor of the Embassy of Ukraine in Vietnam (with accreditation to Cambodia). Zhynkina was previously Chargé d’Affaires of Ukraine in Vietnam for two and a half years until April 2022, and has previously served at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Embassy of Ukraine in Singapore. Zhynkina speaks Ukrainian, Russian, English and Vietnamese, and holds a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and Master’s Degree in International Economics from the Volodymyr Dal East Ukrainian National University.