NVDB005_-_CH_3.005_U.S.-China_Competition_-_Sovinda_Po-2

35 — DP Vol. 05

Regional Security Dilemma: Trends, Directions, and Illusion

It is undeniable that the US and China have competed quite dynamically in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in Southeast Asia, over the course of more than a decade.

For various US administrations, from Barack Obama to Joe Biden, China has remained a strategic rival in Asia. President Obama launched the “Pivot to Asia” policy in 2012, President Trump initiated the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” in 2017, and President Biden recently announced the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” in 2022. In the Mekong region, the US has also upgraded the “Lower Mekong Initiative” to the “Mekong-US Partnership” in 2020. All of these initia- tives were designed with the main aim of countering China’s growing regional influence. Moreover, the US also imposed various sanctions on the country, such as high trade tariffs, ban on the global telecommu- nications company Huawei, and targeted sanctions on certain Chinese officials accused of violating human rights in Xinjiang. US government officials, congressmen and senators all seem to have formed a unified view that China has truly become a strategic peer competitor.

In the eyes of Chinese ruling elites since President Jiang Zemin, the US has been attempting to contain the country’s economic and military rise. But China does not have much leverage to prevent a US strategy of containment. What it can do is to protect its interests and influence by cultivating and enhancing its relationship with Southeast Asia. When Chinese President Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, China launched various grand initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2016, and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation in 2016. China has also upgraded its relationship with ASEAN to the status of the “China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in October 2021. China also signed a free

trade agreement with ASEAN in 2002.

It is worth noting that the US and China have repeatedly stated support for ASEAN in terms of maintaining and enhancing its centrality. However, one should not take this statement at face value. A deeper assessment is needed. From an optimistic perspective, US-China competition over the past 10 years has demonstrated that such a rivalry is necessary for the maintenance of peace and prosperity in the region.

First, most Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia, in fact welcome stronger US engagements in the security realm so as to balance a growing Chinese military presence and expansion in the South China Sea (SCS). For these countries, the US represents a stabilizing force for peace and stability in the region.

Second, the increasing volume of economic initia- tives by both the US and China to engage Southeast Asia is beneficial for local economic growth. So far, Southeast Asian countries have expressed support for and engaged with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) quite enthusiastically. Rhetoric from government officials in Southeast Asian countries suggests they are willing to engage the US as much as possible on the economic front should the US wish to do so.

Even with that said, it is concerning that ASEAN has been facing pressures from both the US and China to choose sides. Even though there is rhetoric from the ruling elites and scholars in Southeast Asian countries that their respective states are not going to choose between the two superpowers, it is becoming increas- ingly evident that the room to maneuver between these superpowers is narrowing. ASEAN therefore faces the immediate challenge of avoiding a zero-sum scenario.

Po Sovinda is a PhD candidate in International Relations at Griffith University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace. His research agenda evolves the relationship between China and mainland Southeast Asia and the strategic use of minilateral institutions by both major powers and small states. His journal articles have appeared in Australian Journal of International Affairs, Asian Studies Review, Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, European Journal of East Asian Studies, Southeast Asian Affairs, Journal of Greater Mekong Studies, Explorations: A Graduate Student Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, and UC Occasional Paper Series. His op-eds have appeared in the Diplomat, East Asia Forum, New Mandala, the Interpreter, ASEANFocus, IPP Review and Australian Outlook. He is often quoted in the Phnom Penh Post, and the South China Morning Post, and also is interviewed by the Wire (Australia), the Voice of America and the Radio Free Asia.