Between nuclear threats and diplomatic initiatives: The Zapad 2025 military exercise in Belarus
Even after the military exercises, the country remains a Russian staging area
The active phase of the Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2025, held from September 12 to 16, 2025, ended—just as expected—without major incidents. However, in recent weeks, the threat to countries bordering Belarus has reached a new level. On September 10, at least 19 Russian drones, mostly flying over Belarus, penetrated deep into NATO member Poland. According to security experts, Russia likely intended to test NATO’s defensive response. In reaction, NATO announced Operation "Eastern Sentry" to strengthen defense along its eastern flank. Although only 8,000 troops (including just 2,000 Russian soldiers) were deployed in Belarus this time, with an estimated 30,000 more stationed in Russia, the exercise brought back grim memories of Zapad 2021, after which Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Back then, however, 200,000 troops participated in the drills. This year’s joint exercises were meant to demonstrate just how closely Belarus and Russia now cooperate militarily. It was also a show of force aimed at the West, with Russian leader Putin maintaining a firm grip on his junior partner, Lukashenko.
