With the introduction of Iraq's new electoral system, the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV), the outcome of the upcoming October elections remains largely unpredictable. Moreover, the division of the provinces into several electoral districts promises to reinforce ethno-sectarian segregation rather than the overhaul of the ethno-sectarian power-sharing system as desired by many Iraqis, who took part in the large-scale protests in 2019. The disputed city of Kirkuk, accommodating Iraqi Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Turkmen, can therefore be understood as a magnifying glass, and, thus, serves as an example for this analysis.

Since Kirkuk is now divided into three electoral districts, each dominated by one of the ethnic groups, the election battles, which have always been heated, are taken to another level. This paper illustrates how the competition of the ethnic groups against each other has also turned into a competition with each other, with each group focusing on its dominant sector and trying to win all the seats it desires in it. To this end, the main candidates running independently, for parties or in coalitions will be presented, and their chances and the associated expected distribution of seats will be analyzed.