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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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Senegal in election mood

A path with hurdles

With a delay of one month, the presidential election in Senegal will now take place on 24 March 2024. The original date (25.02.2024) was annulled by decree by President Macky Sall just a few hours before the start of the election campaign. This brings not only a nerve-wracking process to a temporary end, but also one of the most serious domestic political crises the country has experienced in a long time. Amidst all the discussions about the election date, only one thing remained the same, namely the list of possible successors of Macky Sall. In its decision, the Constitutional Council stipulated that all originally validated candidates can stand for election. This report explains which are the most promising candidates and what political programme they stand for.

Portugal faces difficult formation of government

Results of the early parliamentary elections in Portugal

Change of power in Portugal: the centre-right electoral alliance Aliança Democrática (AD) wins by a small margin ahead of the Socialists, who have not only lost their absolute majority after losing a third of their seats but are now only the second strongest force in the Assembleia da República. The weakness of the Socialists directly benefited the right-wing populist Chega party, which quadrupled its result compared to the 2024 elections. Neither the right-wing nor the left-wing camp can unite a majority. The most likely option at present is the formation of a minority government under PSD leader Luis Montenegro.

IMAGO / Panama Pictures

France ahead of the European elections

Right-wing populists on the rise

On 9 March, President Macron's ruling Renaissance party officially launched its European election campaign. The election campaign kicked off under the impression of the current polls, which show significant gains for the right-wing populists in France. The question is whether this trend can still be reversed by the election date on 9 June 2024. Three months before the European elections, the French are particularly concerned about purchasing power and rising food prices. At 55% and 52% respectively, these two issues dominate the concerns of the French and will therefore be decisive for the 2024 European elections. This set of issues also includes the topic of agriculture, which has gained significant momentum with the farmers' protests at the beginning of 2024. Immigration and security are in third and fifth place respectively, which is likely to play into the hands of right-wing populist parties in particular. The war in Ukraine, which only concerned 18% of French people at the end of 2023, appears to have returned to the focus of the French population as a result of the Ukraine aid conference in Paris and the public disputes about France's involvement. In February 2024, 23% of respondents described the war in Ukraine as a key challenge and as significant for their own voting decision in the European elections.

KAS

Title: Digitalization as an opportunity for development

Status of the digitalization of the Mongolian administration

Volker Wissing, German Federal Minister for Digital Affairs and Transport (BMDV), visited Mongolia in early March 2024. It is noteworthy that Mr. Wissing is the first minister to prioritize digital over transport in his name. Although BMDV is not responsible for digitalization in Mongolia, the minister's trip presents an excellent opportunity to explore the topic of Mongolian administrative digitalization. Readers can decide for themselves whether the German administration has become "more digital and consistently citizen-oriented" since the government coalition took office.

EdvanKun

Volksabstimmung zwingt die Regierung zum Ausbau des Schweizer Sozialstaats -

Die 13. Monatsrente wird kommen

Die Schweizer Wählerinnen und Wähler haben am vergangenen Sonntag, den 03. März, über zwei Volksinitiativen abgestimmt. Dabei hat das linke Lager mit ihrer Vorlage für eine 13. AHV-Rente einen bemerkenswert Sieg eingefahren und 58,2% der Ja-Stimmen erhalten. Die Vorlage der Jungfreisinnigen (FDP) über eine Koppelung des Renteneintrittsalters an die durchschnittliche Lebenserwartung wurde dagegen mit 74,7% der Stimmen abgeschmettert. Die klaren Wahlergebnisse zwingen die Regierung nun zum schnellen Handeln, da die Frage nach der Finanzierung der 13. Monatsrente nicht geklärt ist.

KAS Genf

Ministerialerklärung in der Verlängerung

Ergebnisse und Einschätzungen der 13. Ministerkonferenz der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO)

Die "Genfer Depesche" geht auf Vorgänge in den Genfer multilateralen Organisationen zu einem aktuellen Thema ein. Dieses Mal steht die 13. Ministerkonferenz der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) im Fokus, die vom 26. Februar bis zum 01. März in Abu Dhabi, in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, stattfand.

IMAGO / USA TODAY Network

Biden and Trump: Unpopular and Unavoidable

The Trend of the U.S. Primaries Continues on “Super Tuesday”

The “Super Tuesday” of the U.S. primary elections is over: Party members and supporters in 16 states and one territory decided on their parties’ candidates for the presidential election. President Joe Biden and Donald Trump still have a good chance of becoming their parties’ candidates. But both have to deal with criticism from within the party - and poor poll ratings.

IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

Franco-German tensions and European pressure to act

Ukraine conference in Paris

On February 27, 2024, President Macron invited 20 heads of state and government, including 15 representatives of the EU member states as well as the UK, the USA and Canada, to a conference on Ukraine in Paris at very short notice. This took place under the impression of the extremely difficult situation on the Ukrainian front and the possible discontinuation of military aid from the USA to Ukraine. At the press conference for the meeting, Macron polarized with a statement on the possible deployment of ground troops in Ukraine, which was met with fierce criticism, particularly in Germany. He also sent several pointed remarks in the direction of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which reinforced the impression that tensions in Franco-German relations are currently immense, particularly in view of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. France itself is under pressure to act. The government has repeatedly denied the figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, according to which France is one of the worst performers in the European context in terms of military aid to Ukraine (see info panel). Macron, who attempted to maintain a dialogue with Vladimir Putin as the driving European force at the beginning of the invasion in 2022, now wants to become the geopolitical leader in Europe again. Whether he will succeed in this seems rather uncertain. The European partners immediately distanced themselves clearly from the scenario of a troop deployment in Ukraine. The French president may also have led himself up the garden path domestically. The opposition described Macron's proposal as risky and ill-considered. The right-wing populist camp in France in particular is likely to exploit the president's geopolitical move in order to use it against him in the upcoming European elections.

IMAGO / Manfred Segerer

Escalation in the Red Sea

The military dimension, the deployment of the Bundeswehr and the calculus of regional players

The deployment of the frigate Hessen to the Red Sea was described in advance as the most dangerous deployment of the German navy in the history of the Bundeswehr and is aimed at protecting funda-mental national interests. This naval mission fundamentally challenges central assumptions and plans of Germany’s defence policy of the past two decades. A return of the Bundeswehr to East Africa was long considered just as unlikely as an air defence scenario against a non-state armed group. Now the Yemeni Houthi militia is confronting the US naval forces with a primarily Iranian arsenal of weapons that is clearly superior in quality to that of many other non-state armed groups. While in terms of de-fence policy, Europe is almost completely tied down along NATO's eastern flank, it is becoming appar-ent that the conflict-ridden region around the Red Sea could pose an additional security challenge in the long term and require additional commitment and resources. After all, the maritime trade route between the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab and access to the Indo-Pacific region are of key economic and security importance for Germany and Europe.

IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Elections as a “special operation”

With Lukashenka’s “single voting day” only a coup by the democratic forces is surprising

On February 25, 2024, the “single voting day” for the national parliament and local councils took place in Belarus. This was likely the least free election in the history of the nation. Politically sterile, with no opposition on the ballot or in the election commissions, Lukashenka is ushering in a process that the democratic opposition calls a “special operation.” Strictly guarded by a massive contingent of his repressive apparatus, the system is now to be restructured in the spring with a new super-committee in order to secure his authoritarian rule and personal power. From his point of view, the people are above all a threat following the peaceful pro-democratic mass protests of 2020. An action led by democratic forces produced a surprise on the eve of “Election Day.”

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About this series

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.