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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

“Election” in Belarus

Ruler Lukashenko Grants Himself Another Five Years

The result of the “presidential election” in Belarus on January 26th, with 86.82 percent for the 70-year-old Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, and 8.83 percent for the four “alternative” candidates, is completely fictitious. Experts assume that Lukashenko might realistically achieve 40-50 percent of the vote due to the country's hopeless situation in Russia's stranglehold and the lack of alternatives. However, this cannot be verified. OSCE observers were not allowed to attend the “election,” and candidates from opposition parties or independent civilian election observers were not even given a chance to stand. The “election” should actually have taken place in July but was brought forward to January 26th during a visit by Lukashenko to Russia in October last year. The active phase of the election campaign thus fell in the coldest month of the year, with many public holidays, which reduced the likelihood of street protests. The slowdown in economic growth by mid-2025 would also have had a more significant impact on the population's prosperity. In the event of peace negotiations in Ukraine after Donald Trump’s inauguration, Lukashenko wanted to legitimize himself early on with a renewed mandate as the real incumbent to participate in these negotiations. Since the protests against the election fraud in 2020 were brutally suppressed, Belarus has been on the path to becoming a totalitarian state, with close ties to Russia and isolated from the West by extensive sanctions.

National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria

Political crisis in Bulgaria resolved for now?

GERB forms government with three partners under Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov

The political crisis in Bulgaria, which has been ongoing for several years with constantly changing governments and frequent new elections, could be over for the time being. On 16 January 2025, the Bulgarian parliament elected a coalition government consisting of several parties and party coalitions: ‘Citizens for a European Development of Bulgaria - Union of Democratic Forces’ (GERB-SDS, both EPP), ‘Bulgarian Socialist Party - United Left’ (BSP-OL), the party ‘There Is Such a People’ (ITN) and the ‘Alliance for Rights and Freedoms’ (APS), which may show a way out of the vicious circle in which the country finds itself.

IMAGO / UPI Photo

The Political Landscape in the United Kingdom

A Review Six Months After the Change of Government

Europe is shifting politically to the right. Across the continent, right-wing populist parties are gaining influence or are already part of governing coalitions. At first glance, the United Kingdom seems to be an exception. Six months ago, Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to power with a supermajority. However, a closer look at public opinion and current polling reveals that the British public has not shifted to the left—quite the opposite. It is steadily moving to the right—on various issues and at different speeds, but increasingly away from Labour. Over the past six months, the proportion of voters supporting the right-wing political bloc has risen from 38 per cent to nearly 50 per cent. The political landscape of Britain is undergoing significant change.

IMAGO / Steinsiek.ch

Presidential Election in Croatia 2025

Milanović Secures a Decisive Victory, Highlighting Political Divisions and Tensions with the Government

On January 12, 2025, the second round of Croatia's presidential election took place. With a voter turnout of 44.18 %, incumbent President Zoran Milanović, supported by the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), secured 74.68 % of the votes, defeating his opponent Dragan Primorac, backed by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). Milanović, president since 2020 and former prime minister (2011-2016), led a polarizing campaign that heavily criticized the government and his rival, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. His decisive victory underscores the continuation of his strategy to attract protest voters.

IMAGO / Newscom World

The Team for “America First”

Trump Relies on Experienced Foreign Policy Experts and Loyal Ideologues

Donald Trump's second term as U.S. President is highly anticipated around the world. His announcements are expected to have a global impact: mass expulsions, territorial claims, intensified confrontation with China, and a possible withdrawal from multilateral organizations. But who are the experienced foreign policy experts and loyal ideologues the 47th US President will rely on to help implement his plans? We take a look at his closest advisors on foreign, security, and economic policy.

IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

The Turkestan Islamic Party Takes Aim at China

What’s behind the threats from Uighur Islamists in Damascus?

The escalating rhetoric of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) highlights their ambition to expand their fight beyond Syria and target China directly. With increasing propaganda and connections to global terrorist networks, the TIP presents a growing challenge to Beijing’s security and its strategic interests, particularly in Xinjiang and along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Rights, Representation and Reform: The Political Struggles of Persons with Disabilities in Malaysia

Country Report with a Difference: Malaysia

The report highlights the challenges faced by persons with disabilities in Malaysia’s political sphere. Despite making up 15% of the population, persons with disabilities encounter barriers such as inaccessible polling stations, a lack of braille ballots and sign language interpreters, and insufficient representation. Since 2007, only four senators with disabilities have been appointed to the 70-seat Dewan Negara. This representation (or lack thereof) remains inadequate for such a significant demographic. Although Malaysia has ratified the CRPD and enacted the Persons with Disabilities Act 2008, enforcement remains weak. The ASEAN Enabling Masterplan 2025 provides a framework for inclusion, but more progress is needed. As Malaysia chairs ASEAN in 2025, it must lead efforts to ensure full political inclusion for persons with disabilities. As a young and developing democracy, Malaysia has the potential to lead the region in inclusivity, demonstrating that every voice—regardless of ability—counts in building a just and equitable society.

IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

A new president for Lebanon in crisis

After more than two years of deadlock, the office of president has been filled again. The first step on a long road to state renewal?

Lebanon has a new president. With 99 out of 128 votes, Joseph Aoun, the former military commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army (LAF), was elected as the country's 14th president by the Lebanese parliament on 9 January. This was preceded by intensive international mediation efforts, diplomatic pressure and internal Lebanese debates on how and with whom the two-year-long vacancy in the presidential palace could be ended.

IMAGO / IP3press

Another new government in France: renewal through continuity?

On 23rd December 2024 the Prime Minister François Bayrou presented his government. After the Borne, Attal and Barnier governments, it was the fourth government in France in 2024.

On 13 December 2024, Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou, the leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) party, a loyal ally of the Macron governments, as the new Prime Minister to succeed Michel Barnier in a further attempt to restore political stability in France. Bayrou's government is relying on continuity with a bourgeois-conservative cabinet and experienced figures from previous governments, but this casts doubt on its capacity for political renewal. Bayrou's centrist legacy and controversial compromises also raise questions about the coherence and strategic direction of his team. Bayrou has not succeeded in integrating the left-wing camp into a government alliance during the nominations, and the influence of the Rassemblement National on political decisions still appears to be strong. Whether his government is therefore more capable of taking action than the Barnier government remains questionable.

IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

South Africa's new government of national unity: progress or stagnation for the country?

An analysis of the first coalition in South Africa in almost thirty years

On 29 May 2024 historic elections took place in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa’s former first democratically elected president Mandela, lost its absolute majority – for the first time since the end of apartheid thirty years ago. A coalition government had to be formed – a very unusual step in a country used to a previously dominating ANC. So how did the “Government of National Unity” come about and how can its work be judged until now? Is it functioning well or are the risks to this 10-party-coalition too great for the challenges facing the rainbow nation?

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About this series

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.