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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / ZUMA Press

Slow, Agonizing - and Unstoppable: the End of the Trudeau Era is Approaching

The Prime Minister and his difficult farewell to power

Canada in the summer of 2024: the government's run of bad luck - critics would say ongoing poor performance - has continued for almost 20 months. Hardly a week goes by without a new piece of bad news hitting the media. In the face of this misery, however, the head of government appears outwardly unimpressed - for now.

Dr. Norbert Eschborn
July 31, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Peking's Reach for the Sea of Japan

China's Geopolitics and Russia's Concessions

While Western media continues to speculate about China's role in Russia's war of aggression, Beijing is focused on maximizing its benefits. China aims to exploit Moscow's dependence on the People's Republic and expand cooperation on its own terms, not just economically. Geopolitically, this involves China's access to the Sea of Japan and extends to the Arctic. A seemingly insignificant passage in a joint statement by Presidents Xi and Putin could have far-reaching geopolitical implications, posing a serious security challenge for Japan and South Korea.

Johann C. Fuhrmann
July 31, 2024
Country reports
UN Photo/Loey Felipe

2024 High-Level Political Forum: The SDGs Caught in Geopolitical Tensions

Seeing the visible signs of fragmentation on common issues in the UN’s foremost platform for advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The United Nations (UN) High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) on Sustainable Development is an annual forum under the auspices of ECOSOC for the review of progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This year, the Forum convened at UN Headquarters in New York from 8-17 July 2024. Taking place under the theme "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions”, this year's Forum reviewed 5 SDGs: SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 16 (peaceful institutions), SDG 17 (partnerships). While the HLPF does not tend to make global headlines in the same way that the UN General Assembly does every September, the Forum remains the UN's primary gathering for high-level representatives to draw global attention to their national and political commitment to the 2030 Agenda, and in turn, to the multilateral system. The Forum consisted of a three-day Ministerial segment with speeches from 115 Ministers, Vice-Ministers, Permanent Representatives and others. Further, more than 250 high-level special events, Voluntary National Review (VNR) labs, side events and exhibitions took place in person and online.

Thomas Tödtling, Erica Mumford
July 31, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / SNA

New Iron Curtain rising on the EU border with Belarus

"New EU-sanctions package against Belarus might backfire"

After introducing the latest EU sanctions package against the Republic of Belarus, the Baltic States Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania imposed an entrance ban for almost all passenger cars with Belarusian license plates. Belarusian cars currently present in these countries were given limited time to either leave or reregister locally. Aimed at closing loopholes in the sanctions which were introduced to punish the regimes in Minsk and Moscow for their aggressive behaviour and to strengthen border security at NATO’s eastern flank, the passenger car ban sparked strong negative reactions, also from the democratic community of Belarus. They warn that shutting the EU’s door for regular citizens, most of whom voted for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in 2020, will only further alienate the Belarusian population from the West. As trade with the Lukashenka regime continues, his propaganda machine will know how to use the “travel ban” to strengthen the pro-Russian narrative claiming that “nobody in the West wants you Belarusians”.

Jakob Wöllenstein
July 30, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / NurPhoto

Georgia Meloni caught in the middle

The positioning of the governing party ‘Fratelli d'Italia’ between the far-right and the bourgeois centre

‘Montagna Russa’ is what they call the rollercoaster in Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has had a political rollercoaster ride before she soon starts her summer holiday. Between the glamour of the summit and the pitfalls of Brussels, she tried to send out signals, for example with the surprising vote of her MEPs against Ursula von der Leyen. Has the head of government overplayed her hand? Where does she want to go strategically with her right-wing conservative party, which has become the dominant force in the centre-right camp in the third-largest EU member state? Many things seem confused at this point, the gun smoke has yet to clear. We try to reconstruct the events and look to the future.

Michael Feth, Dr. Nino Galetti
July 29, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

The Beijing Declaration: Palestinian truce or Chinese PR stunt?

An initial assessment of the Beijing Declaration between Hamas and Fatah, its background and possible implications

Palestinian factions, including rivals Hamas and Fatah, declared their willingness in Beijing in July to “end divisions and strengthen Palestinian unity” following reconciliation talks hosted by China in the latest attempt to resolve the long-standing Palestinian rivalry. Similar agreements have failed in the past, damping the prospects of success. Nevertheless, bringing together 14 Palestinian factions to agree on a common framework during times of war can be considered a diplomatic achievement – not least for the host of the mediations, the People’s Republic of China.

Simon Engelkes
July 26, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Panama Pictures

The election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission

An analysis after the 2024 European elections

The center holds” - this is what Ursula von der Leyen announced on the evening of June 9 after the first projections of the European election results from the 27 European member states came in. She was proved right - the center has held: Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected Commission President on July 18 with a comfortable majority of 401 votes, presumably made up of votes from the pro-European centrist groups, i.e. the European People's Party (EPP), the Social Democrats (S&D), the Liberals and also the Greens, in a secret ballot. Her “declaration” - a kind of candidacy speech to the plenary of the European Parliament - was based on political guidelines for the next European Commission 2024-2029, which had been published shortly before her speech

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Kai Gläser
July 25, 2024
Country reports
Adobe Stock / Shutter2U / Generated with AI

IBAR: The Interim Benchmark Assessment Report in the EU Accession Process

The role and significance of the IBAR as a milestone of European integration for Montenegro and other Southeast European states.

On June 25, 2024, the European Commission certified that Montenegro was the first country in the Western Balkans to clear the IBAR hurdle. The “Interim Benchmark Assessment Report”, an interim report on the rule of law, serves as a benchmark for the progress of an EU accession candidate in this area. A positive IBAR is a confirmation of the successful steps taken under negotiation chapters 23 (Justice and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) of the accession procedure and points the way for further reforms. The decision was perceived in Montenegro as a positive signal from Brussels and generally as a sign of the EU's growing willingness to accept new members. However, some experts expressed concerns about the standards applied in the reporting process and called for further reforms. But what does the IBAR mean for a country's future path into the EU? This report looks at its relevance in the EU accession process of the candidate countries Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and specifically Montenegro.

Dr. Mahir Muharemović, Dr. Pavel Usvatov
July 25, 2024
Country reports
KAS Genf

Geneva Telegram for the July session of the General Council of the World Trade Organisation (WTO)

The ‘Geneva Telegram’ discusses current deliberations in the Geneva-based multilateral organisations, in this case the July meeting of the General Council of the WTO

The telegram covers the proceedings of the General Council meeting of 22-23 July 2024, chaired by Petter Ølberg (Norway).

Dr. Anja Maria Rittner
July 25, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / IP3press

Constituent session of the National Assembly

Left-wing shift in the presidency and agreements

Thirty-nine days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, eleven days after the second round of the parliamentary elections, in which the presidential camp (Ensemble) suffered a defeat, the former Speaker of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet (Renaissance) was re-elected on 18 July. She prevailed in the third round of voting against the candidate of the left-wing electoral alliance New Popular Front, André Chassaigne (Parti communiste) and the candidate of the Rassemblement National, Sébastien Chenu. Although the election is secret, it is considered certain that Braun-Pivet was able to hold on thanks to the votes from the conservative centre-right camp. The left-wing populists of La France Insoumise described the election as stolen. In the meantime, they filed a complaint with the Constitutional Council against the fact that 17 former ministers who were still part of the caretaker government were also elected. However, one day after the defeat of the communist André Chassaigne in the election of the President of the National Assembly, the New Popular Front surprisingly won 12 out of 22 seats on the National Assembly's presidium. Rassemblement National, on the other hand, came away empty-handed: Marine Le Pen and the deputies of her parliamentary group were excluded from filling the posts in the Assembly's presidium; they were unable to provide any of the six vice-presidents, any of the three quaestor posts or even any of the twelve secretaries. The agreement between the presidential majority Ensemble and the conservative bourgeois camp also appears to have paid off when it came to filling the committee posts. Ensemble was able to retain the chairmanship of 6 of the 8 standing committees. However, the fact that the Macron camp no longer holds any of the key positions for budgetary decisions is considered a bitter setback: it lost the strategically important post of general rapporteur for the budget; the chairmanship of the finance committee remained in the hands of the left-wing camp. A new government is not expected to be formed before the end of the Olympic Games.

Anja Czymmeck, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 24, 2024
Country reports
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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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