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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / UPI Photo

Historic Breakthrough for Peace in the South Caucasus?

Pashinyan and Aliyev sign groundbreaking agreements with Trump on peace and infrastructure projects between Armenia and Azerbaijan

On August 8, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for a “historic peace summit.” Both countries declared a permanent renunciation of war, endorsed 17 negotiated provisions of a future peace treaty, and formally withdrew from the OSCE Minsk Group. At the heart of the agreement lies the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), an infrastructure initiative in Armenia’s Syunik region encompassing railways, pipelines, and fiber-optic networks. In exchange, the United States receives exclusive development rights for 99 years, while Armenia retains formal sovereignty over the territory. The deal diminishes Russia’s regional influence, strengthens Turkey’s strategic position, and provokes discontent in Iran. For Armenia, the agreement opens up new trade opportunities but also entails risks due to the rupture with traditional partners and domestic political criticism. Azerbaijan gains a direct land corridor to Turkey, access to new markets, and enhanced international prestige. For the United States, the deal offers economic and security benefits as well as a boost in global political standing. The European Union sees potential for regional stabilization and new trade routes but must acknowledge its diminished role as a mediator compared to Washington. If successfully implemented, the agreements could mark a historic turning point for the South Caucasus.

Jakob Wöllenstein
August 11, 2025
Country reports
UN Photo/Manuel Elías

The Future of Sustainable Development in Flux

As the global development landscape reorganizes, multilateral cooperation must remain at its core

One decade after their adoption, the Sustainable Development Goals remain off track amid growing insecurity, dwindling financial commitment, and eroding trust in multilateralism. As time runs out for the 2030 Agenda, can the international community meet the moment with the urgency and unity needed?

Thomas Tödtling, Teresa Val
August 6, 2025
Country reports
European Union, 2025, CC BY 4.0

Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and EU Enables Further Transatlantic Cooperation

The Stakes Go Beyond Tariffs

The outcome is sobering: at the eleventh hour, the EU and the U.S. reached a trade agreement that imposes tariffs once considered unthinkable. Important transatlantic trade is paying the price for further transatlantic cooperation on security issues.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
July 31, 2025
Country reports
smarterpics / NewAfrica

Rule of Law Report 2025

The most important findings at a glance

In July 2025, the EU Commission published its Rule of Law Report for the year 2025. While some countries in south-eastern Europe were formally certified as having made progress, the reality on the ground is often more complex. Albania, for example, has completed initial judicial vetting and adopted a new justice strategy, yet faces persistent administrative backlogs, unfilled positions, and political interference that undermine these reforms. Similarly, Bulgaria experiences repeated legislative and constitutional deadlocks that obstruct essential judicial reforms, with continued disproportionate influence of the Prosecutor General and Parliament over the judiciary. Public and business perceptions of corruption remain high everywhere, with anti-corruption efforts yielding minimal high-level convictions despite institutional restructuring. Across the region, a critical perspective reveals that legislative changes often mask deeper, unresolved issues. In Croatia, public trust in the justice system remains low, despite active oversight bodies. Montenegro's judiciary has seen a significant plummet in public trust, alongside staffing gaps and growing case backlogs. North Macedonia's judicial reforms are hampered by poor coordination, funding, and staffing shortages, leading to low public trust and growing case backlogs. In Serbia, persistent political interference and staffing shortfalls fuel a lack of public confidence in the judiciary. Media freedom faces challenges, including concentrated ownership with political ties, lack of transparency in state advertising, and intimidation of journalists. For all these countries, progress is fragile and susceptible to reversal without deeper, consistent enforcement, and demonstrable improvements in judicial independence, media freedom, and institutional checks and balances.

Dr. Pavel Usvatov, Alina Monceanu, Dr. Mahir Muharemović
July 31, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Bernd Elmenthaler

Unilateral recognition

Motives and consequences of France's recognition of Palestine in the national, European and international context

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that France will recognise Palestine as a state. He published this announcement on Platform X in three languages: French, English and Arabic. Formal recognition is to take place in September during the next United Nations General Assembly in New York. Nevertheless, this step is already being seen as de facto recognition of Palestine. France will officially recognise Palestine as an independent state – i.e. as an autonomous entity under international law with a claim to sovereignty, probably based on the 1967 borders (West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem). Macron also published a letter to Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority. In this letter, Macron emphasises that Abbas had already made certain commitments to him at the beginning of June that made recognition possible – such as disarming Hamas and announcing elections next year.

Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 30, 2025
Country reports

Guatemala faces difficult times

Some light in the tunnel - but more than a sword of Damocles

Guatemala is in a complex stalemate that could jeopardize the country's governability. 18 months after the government of the Social Democrat Bernardo Arévalo (Semilla) took office, observers see some light in the tunnel after recent increasingly critical and future-sceptical assessments. The government has little time to convince. Otherwise, there is a risk of an institutional stalemate or even an ungovernability scenario, which could pave the way for an autocratic solution in the 2027 elections.

Prof. Dr. Stefan Jost
July 25, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO

25th EU-China Summit in Beijing

A Sobering Anniversary

The 25th EU-China Summit on 24 July in Beijing took place under difficult circum-stances: although it marked the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the EU and China, there was little sign of enthusiasm in the run-up to the event. The dif-ferences are too great – both in geopolitical terms and in economic and trade policy. As generally expected, no major breakthroughs were achieved on the numerous con-tentious issues. There were hardly any signs of a readjustment of relations, as desired by the EU. Nevertheless, both sides adopted a joint statement on climate issues and agreed to find a solution to the impact of Chinese export controls on rare earths.

Johann C. Fuhrmann, Dr. Olaf Wientzek, Jonas Nitschke
July 25, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Anadolu Agency

Japan: A resounding defeat for the government

For the first time in twelve years, the ruling coalition of LDP and Kōmeitō has lost its majority in Japan's Upper House

Japan is entering a phase of political uncertainty: following a clear defeat in the 2024 Lower House elections, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō has now also lost its majority in the Upper House. Rising living costs, an escalating trade conflict with the United States, and an increasingly polarized debate over immigration shaped the election campaign.

Paul Linnarz, Johanna Bieger
July 21, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Foiled Coup in Armenia? Conflict with Church Leadership Escalates

Yerevan reports the thwarting of a violent coup with Moscow's fingerprints

On the afternoon of June 27, 2025, dramatic scenes unfolded in Etchmiadzin, the seat of the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, located 20 km west of Yerevan. Special police units moved in to detain Mikael Ajapahyan. The archbishop, along with other church leaders, had openly opposed the government, but hundreds of people—including clergy and ordinary citizens—blocked the path until the uniformed officers withdrew. When the wanted man voluntarily turned himself in to the authorities later that evening, asserting his innocence, he became just one of fifteen high-profile arrests within a matter of days. Nikol Pashinyan’s government claims to have thwarted a violent coup attempt. Critics, however, accuse it of launching a politically motivated campaign against the Armenian Church and the opposition, and of betraying the country to its archrivals, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Societal divisions appear more entrenched than they have been in decades. One year ahead of the pivotal parliamentary elections in the summer of 2026, the current escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of an increasingly polarized debate over the country’s direction, as Armenia stands at a historic crossroads in its foreign policy.

Jakob Wöllenstein
July 18, 2025
Country reports

Polarisierung und Antisystem in der Slowakei

Neue Publikation des DEKK Instituts, 2025

Misstrauen gegenüber dem System und Polarisierung sind bis zu einem gewissen Grad gesunde Tendenzen, aber wenn sie ein bestimmtes Maß überschreiten, hat das Land ein Stabilitätsproblem und steht möglicherweise vor radikalen Veränderungen. Die Slowakei hat damit gute Erfahrungen gemacht und ein Großteil der Bevölkerung erinnert sich noch lebhaft daran - das Land erlebte 1989 einen radikalen Systemwandel. Das Ziel der Autoren ist es nicht, Menschen zu stigmatisieren, die dem System nicht vertrauen. Die Autoren sehen das Anwachsen von Polarisierung und Systemfeindlichkeit als Symptom für reale oder wahrgenommene Probleme des Systems, die untersucht und angegangen werden müssen. Mit diesem Ziel, und keinem anderen, wurde diese Studie erstellt.

Pavol Kosnáč, Hugo Gloss
July 17, 2025
Country reports

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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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