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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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Smarterpix/ Ale_Mi

Perceptions of Jordanian Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity

Surveys show shifts in foreign policy priorities and partnerships while maintaining the basic orientation of Jordanian foreign policy

In the context of regional instability, Jordanian foreign policy remains shaped by a pragmatic approach and a focus on maintaining security and stability. At the same time, economic challenges are leading to an increasing public expectation for specific foreign policy results for Jordan’s economy. While the US and Saudi Arabia continue to lead the field of Jordan’s partner countries, confidence in the US’s stabilizing role in the region is shrinking. The image of Germany is recovering compared to the previous year, despite criticism in the context of the Gaza war.

Veronika Ertl, Laura Schranz
February 17, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Anadolu Agency

Energy as a Strategic Factor: Türkiye’s Growing Importance for Germany and Europe

Successes and potential of Turkish energy policy

Following the EU's import ban on Russian gas, Europe will have to seek alternatives. In this context, Türkiye could become even more important than before. It is continuously diversifying its energy sources and suppliers, while also looking for energy reserves within its own borders. This is gradually making it more independent. Türkiye is already a key energy transit country. Despite its existing dependencies, particularly on Russia, it is expected to become an increasingly attractive energy partner and potentially an energy trader for Germany and Europe in the future. Cooperation in renewable energy holds potential for both sides. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 31) in November in Antalya will provide further insights into how energy and climate policy goals can be aligned.

Dr. Markus Hildebrand
February 16, 2026
Country reports
CC0 1.0 Universell

Vance in Armenia – A Tailwind for Yerevan?

As the first U.S. Vice President, JD Vance visits Armenia– TRIPP, defense cooperation, and new momentum in the peace process.

For the first time, a U.S. Vice President visited Armenia — arriving not only with investment pledges, but with a broader geopolitical offer. TRIPP, nuclear cooperation, and new arms agreements signal a qualitative deepening of relations between Washington and Yerevan. For Prime Minister Pashinyan, this provides momentum in an election year; for Russia and Iran, it marks a further shift in the regional balance of power. The EU, in turn, faces the question of whether and how it can play an active role in shaping this emerging dynamic in the years ahead.

Florian Binder, Marlon Husmann, Jakob Wöllenstein
February 13, 2026
Country reports
KI M365 CoPilot

Rule of Law in Southeast Europe 2025

A Region at the Crossroads: Progress, Stagnation, and Decline

At the end of 2025, the World Justice Project (WJP) has published the newest index on the Rule of Law developments worldwide. The data helps to draw a picture of the situation in the countries under scrutiny and present a broad range of information. This regional report synthesizes data from the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2025, the European Commission country assessments, and our own examination to provide an overview of judicial independence, corruption, government constraints, and fundamental rights across ten Southeast European nations. The region presents a complex landscape of diverging rule of law trajectories in 2025. While Croatia and Romania are regional leaders in the WJP Rule of Law Index, Serbia has become one of the countries with the sharpest decline worldwide. Bulgaria and Moldova have shown weaknesses, and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have undergone difficult developments. Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania are showing some improvements in their rule of law. Finally, corruption remains a universal challenge in the region.

Dr. Pavel Usvatov, Dr. Mahir Muharemović
February 11, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Munich as a Stage for Beijing?

China ahead of the Munich Security Conference 2026

At the leading security forum in Munich, Beijing is able to capitalize on the diplomatic self-weakening of the United States, using the opportunities to advance new partnership and its own agenda; yet despite these advantages, China remains unable to position itself as a genuine alternative for the European Union.

Tobias Knörich, Johann C. Fuhrmann
February 9, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Thailand vor den Wahlen

Richtungswechsel oder Status Quo?

Am 8. Februar 2026 wird in Thailand eine neue Regierung gewählt, weniger als drei Jahre seit dem letzten regulären Urnengang. Notwendig wurden die vorgezogenen Neuwahlen durch die Amtsenthebung von Premierministerin Paetongtarn Shinawatra im August 2025, in deren Folge eine Minderheitsregierung unter Anutin Charnvirakul, dem dritten Premierminister seit 2023, geschäftsführend und befristet die Geschicke übernahm. Diese Zeit geht nun zu Ende – am 12. Dezember 2025 wurde das Parlament aufgelöst, im Januar der Wahltermin bekannt gegeben. Zudem findet am selben Tag ein Referendum zum Für und Wider einer Verfassungsreform statt, die über die grundsätzliche politische Architektur des Landes langfristig entscheidet. Was steht auf dem Spiel, welche Szenarien zeichnen sich ab und was bedeutet das für die Zukunft des Landes? Ein Überblick.

Dr. Angelika Klein
February 6, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Bashir Daher

New Yemen, new Gulf

The war in Yemen and the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi

In the wake of the dramatic events in the Yemeni civil war at the turn of the year, the cards have been reshuffled between the regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The military offensive by Emirati-backed separatists and the counterattack by the Yemeni government allied with Saudi Arabia are more than just another chapter in the war – they have caused tensions between the two Gulf monarchies to boil over. Not only has the long-simmering animosity between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi fully come to surface, but the conflict also makes another round of confrontations in the Gulf more likely. Moreover, it raises fundamental questions about stability in the Middle East, for which the Gulf states were in fact considered guarantors. In the Gulf, a new phase of politics could be dawning, with two opposing poles of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pursuing conflicting regional visions with the help of different coalition partners. Likewise, the breakdown of the former Saudi-UAE alliance is not without consequences for Europe's foreign policy in the Middle East, which so far relied on both protagonists as anchors of stability.

Philipp Dienstbier, Nicolas Reeves
February 5, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / Zoonar

Mexico Outlook 2026

Mexico under stress: threat of US intervention, erosion of democracy and fragile security

ince the US military intervention in Venezuela, possible US operations in Mexico are no longer considered mere threats. Announcements from Washington are now also perceived in Mexico as a real political risk scenario, presenting President Sheinbaum with a foreign and domestic policy test. At the same time, the country is undergoing a period of profound institutional upheaval. Following the far-reaching weakening of constitutional structures in 2025, the announced electoral reform could also bring the legislature under the de facto control of the ruling party in 2026. If this plan is implemented, it would further substantially damage the already fragile democratic balance. At the same time, the security situation presents a mixed picture. While the number of registered homicides is declining, the number of disappearances continues to rise. At the same time, the population's sense of insecurity remains high.

Hans-Hartwig Blomeier, Nikolaus Rischbieter
February 5, 2026
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Local elections in France in 2026

A barometer for the presidential elections

In March 2026, six years after the last election, local representatives will be re-elected in France. As the last nationwide direct elections before the 2027 presidential election, the parties attach particular importance to this vote, even though local election results traditionally only reflect national sentiment to a limited extent. However, given the unstable national political situation in which this year's local elections will take place, this trend could change. Since the dissolution of the National Assembly in 2024, political control at the state level has been weakened, parliamentary majorities remain unstable and confidence in national institutions is under great pressure. It therefore seems that the political significance of the local elections could have a greater impact at the national level this time or be influenced by it. Accordingly, the focus is shifting to the local authorities: in 2026, they will become key touchstones of political credibility, capacity to act and organisation.

Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Nele Katharina Wissmann
February 5, 2026
Country reports
KAS/Althusmann

Is a ‘world order in upheaval’ leading Canada into a new leadershiprole?

Why geopolitical upheavals will redefine Canada's role in the international world order and in the transatlantic alliance

The ongoing trade war with the United States remains one of the country’s greatest challenges. Canada therefore intends to further expand its partnerships with Europe and the Indo‑Pacific region. As early as November 2025, Carney spoke of an epochal rupture and a shift toward a new world order that may be shaped by serious conflicts and a closer alignment among middle powers. The anticipated withdrawal of the United States could herald profound changes to the “old NATO” and necessitate a new security architecture. Canada will now have to demonstrate its readiness to assume greater responsibility and leadership as a middle power. However, the challenges facing the incumbent Carney government remain enormous—particularly on the domestic front. High unemployment, especially among younger generations, a shortage of affordable housing, and substantial defence spending require clear answers and a decisive political course. Prime Minister Carney and his minority government must deliver.

Dr. Bernd Althusmann, Marie Yamada
February 5, 2026
Country reports

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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.