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IMAGO / Xinhua

Familiar Faces, New Priorities

Government Formation and Priority Setting in Ireland after the 2024 Parliamentary Elections

The fastest coalition negotiations in recent Irish history have concluded. A process that previously took nearly six months was completed in just six weeks. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and independent TDs have formed a center-right coalition that secures a majority in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of parliament. Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil) will initially serve as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and alternate with Simon Harris (Fine Gael). While governing parties in many European countries have faced significant losses, Ireland's political landscape has remained stable. The government program, "Securing Ireland's Future," focuses on economic stability, infrastructure investment, and cautious reforms. However, social inequality and rising rents remain two of the many unresolved issues. Whether Ireland’s economic success will reach the broader population is the central challenge for the new coalition.

Dr. Canan Atilgan, Lukas Wick
January 28, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

“Election” in Belarus

Ruler Lukashenko Grants Himself Another Five Years

The result of the “presidential election” in Belarus on January 26th, with 86.82 percent for the 70-year-old Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, and 8.83 percent for the four “alternative” candidates, is completely fictitious. Experts assume that Lukashenko might realistically achieve 40-50 percent of the vote due to the country's hopeless situation in Russia's stranglehold and the lack of alternatives. However, this cannot be verified. OSCE observers were not allowed to attend the “election,” and candidates from opposition parties or independent civilian election observers were not even given a chance to stand. The “election” should actually have taken place in July but was brought forward to January 26th during a visit by Lukashenko to Russia in October last year. The active phase of the election campaign thus fell in the coldest month of the year, with many public holidays, which reduced the likelihood of street protests. The slowdown in economic growth by mid-2025 would also have had a more significant impact on the population's prosperity. In the event of peace negotiations in Ukraine after Donald Trump’s inauguration, Lukashenko wanted to legitimize himself early on with a renewed mandate as the real incumbent to participate in these negotiations. Since the protests against the election fraud in 2020 were brutally suppressed, Belarus has been on the path to becoming a totalitarian state, with close ties to Russia and isolated from the West by extensive sanctions.

Gabriele Baumann
January 27, 2025
Country reports
National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria

Political crisis in Bulgaria resolved for now?

GERB forms government with three partners under Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov

The political crisis in Bulgaria, which has been ongoing for several years with constantly changing governments and frequent new elections, could be over for the time being. On 16 January 2025, the Bulgarian parliament elected a coalition government consisting of several parties and party coalitions: ‘Citizens for a European Development of Bulgaria - Union of Democratic Forces’ (GERB-SDS, both EPP), ‘Bulgarian Socialist Party - United Left’ (BSP-OL), the party ‘There Is Such a People’ (ITN) and the ‘Alliance for Rights and Freedoms’ (APS), which may show a way out of the vicious circle in which the country finds itself.

Norbert Beckmann-Dierkes, Borislaw Wankow
January 24, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / UPI Photo

The Political Landscape in the United Kingdom

A Review Six Months After the Change of Government

Europe is shifting politically to the right. Across the continent, right-wing populist parties are gaining influence or are already part of governing coalitions. At first glance, the United Kingdom seems to be an exception. Six months ago, Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to power with a supermajority. However, a closer look at public opinion and current polling reveals that the British public has not shifted to the left—quite the opposite. It is steadily moving to the right—on various issues and at different speeds, but increasingly away from Labour. Over the past six months, the proportion of voters supporting the right-wing political bloc has risen from 38 per cent to nearly 50 per cent. The political landscape of Britain is undergoing significant change.

Dr. Canan Atilgan
January 22, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Steinsiek.ch

Presidential Election in Croatia 2025

Milanović Secures a Decisive Victory, Highlighting Political Divisions and Tensions with the Government

On January 12, 2025, the second round of Croatia's presidential election took place. With a voter turnout of 44.18 %, incumbent President Zoran Milanović, supported by the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), secured 74.68 % of the votes, defeating his opponent Dragan Primorac, backed by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). Milanović, president since 2020 and former prime minister (2011-2016), led a polarizing campaign that heavily criticized the government and his rival, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. His decisive victory underscores the continuation of his strategy to attract protest voters.

Jakov Devčić, Marko Prusina, Juro Avgustinović, Björn Emig
January 21, 2025
Country reports
Adobe Stock/Sergey Ilin

Will QUAD change the security architecture in the Indo-Pacific?

Diplomatic dialogue and practical cooperation on security challenges in the Indo-Pacific

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India is a flexible cooperative forum that responds to growing geopolitical challenges in the Indo-Pacific. With initiatives in areas such as maritime security, technology and climate change, QUAD aims to promote a rules-based order and counter China's influence. Through close cooperation between the four democracies, QUAD could have a lasting impact on the region's security architecture.

Jan Senkyr
January 16, 2025
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / Newscom World

The Team for “America First”

Trump Relies on Experienced Foreign Policy Experts and Loyal Ideologues

Donald Trump's second term as U.S. President is highly anticipated around the world. His announcements are expected to have a global impact: mass expulsions, territorial claims, intensified confrontation with China, and a possible withdrawal from multilateral organizations. But who are the experienced foreign policy experts and loyal ideologues the 47th US President will rely on to help implement his plans? We take a look at his closest advisors on foreign, security, and economic policy.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
January 16, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

The Turkestan Islamic Party Takes Aim at China

What’s behind the threats from Uighur Islamists in Damascus?

The escalating rhetoric of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) highlights their ambition to expand their fight beyond Syria and target China directly. With increasing propaganda and connections to global terrorist networks, the TIP presents a growing challenge to Beijing’s security and its strategic interests, particularly in Xinjiang and along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Johann C. Fuhrmann
January 15, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

A new president for Lebanon in crisis

After more than two years of deadlock, the office of president has been filled again. The first step on a long road to state renewal?

Lebanon has a new president. With 99 out of 128 votes, Joseph Aoun, the former military commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army (LAF), was elected as the country's 14th president by the Lebanese parliament on 9 January. This was preceded by intensive international mediation efforts, diplomatic pressure and internal Lebanese debates on how and with whom the two-year-long vacancy in the presidential palace could be ended.

Michael Bauer
January 10, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / IP3press

Another new government in France: renewal through continuity?

On 23rd December 2024 the Prime Minister François Bayrou presented his government. After the Borne, Attal and Barnier governments, it was the fourth government in France in 2024.

On 13 December 2024, Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou, the leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) party, a loyal ally of the Macron governments, as the new Prime Minister to succeed Michel Barnier in a further attempt to restore political stability in France. Bayrou's government is relying on continuity with a bourgeois-conservative cabinet and experienced figures from previous governments, but this casts doubt on its capacity for political renewal. Bayrou's centrist legacy and controversial compromises also raise questions about the coherence and strategic direction of his team. Bayrou has not succeeded in integrating the left-wing camp into a government alliance during the nominations, and the influence of the Rassemblement National on political decisions still appears to be strong. Whether his government is therefore more capable of taking action than the Barnier government remains questionable.

Anja Czymmeck, Max Willem Fricke, Marine Vadelorge
January 6, 2025
Country reports
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