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Imago / Xinhua

Escalation in the Middle East intensifies

Is a regional war inevitable?

• In just over a month, we will mark the first anniversary of the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Since then, Israel has been at war with attacks from several fronts.
• The situation dramatically peaked over the summer months. Twelve children were killed in a Hezbollah rocket attack. The Israeli army (IDF) then took out a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut with a targeted airstrike. A few hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyya was killed in Tehran. Although not officially confirmed, the attack is attributed to Israel.
• Iran and its proxies vowed retaliation and announced to attack Israel. The IDF and Israeli security services have been on high alert ever since. On August 25, 2024, an imminent Hezbollah attack was repelled by a pre-emptive strike. Over 100 Israeli fighter jets attacked numerous targets in Lebanon and destroyed over 6,000 Hezbollah missiles and drones.
• At the end of August representatives of the Israeli government announced that the war aims will be extended so that the evacuated inhabitants of northern Israel could return to their homes.
• Negotiations on an agreement between Israel and Hamas to free the Israeli hostages abducted on October 7th and a ceasefire appear to have reached an impasse. Since August 28, 2024, Israel has also been conducting a major military operation in the West Bank with the aim of preventing further attacks from there.

Dr. Michael Rimmel, Johannes Sosada
September 2, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Democratic National Convention Seals Change of Candidates

New Start, New Momentum

The Democratic National Convention has officially confirmed Kamala Harris as the party’s candidate for the presidential election. This marks the first time since 1968 that the candidacy has not been decided by voters in the primaries, following President Biden’s announcement of his withdrawal after the primaries. Just over a week after the convention in Chicago, polls indicate that Harris is gaining momentum and has shifted public opinion in favor of the Democrats in many states. Whether this will last until November depends on various factors. It is already clear that the race for the White House will be close.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
September 2, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / NurPhoto

Mexico's democracy at a crossroads

Change of government with turbulences

The elections of last June 2 have produced a clear result and give the election winner Claudia Sheinbaum an extensive mandate for her six-year term of office, which begins on October 1. However, this does not seem to be accompanied by a strengthening of democracy in Mexico, but rather reminiscent of the times of de facto one-party rule by the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) in the 1970s and 80s, which Mario Vargas Llosa described as the "perfect dictatorship" at the time. The majority in Congress with the possibility of constitutional amendments, the drastic judicial reform that calls into question the independence of the judiciary, and the abolition of state control institutions are just some of the aspects that provoke the question of whether Mexican democracy is in a dangerous downward spiral after the correct and important developments since 2000.

Hans-Hartwig Blomeier
August 30, 2024
Country reports
adobe stock / Ramil

Parliamentary elections ahead of COP29

Despite many hurdles and a predictable outcome, independent candidates are challenging Aliyev's government.

Since 1995, the ruling party ‘New Azerbaijan’ has won every election with an overwhelming majority. The early parliamentary elections on 1 September are likely to be no exception. While the country has allowed Western election observation missions to take part in previous polls, this time only the OSCE has been invited. Chinese and Russian election observers are welcome. Despite major obstacles, independent candidates are also running. One of them is Shahriyar Majidzadeh, whose constituency of Tartar also includes parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. His slogan is: ‘Peace, climate protection, gender equality and education’.

Florian Binder, Stephan Malerius
August 27, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / SNA

From Titanium to Taurus

Ukrainian resources and european supply chain resilience in times of war

Ukraine has high reserves of raw materials, the extraction of which could significantly improve the economic situation and finance the reconstruction of the country. Some of these raw materials are essential for the production of weapon systems. Increased cooperation with the EU could integrate Ukraine into the European internal market and promote its own production of military technologies. However, it is crucial to minimize political challenges to enable necessary investments and not to lose the raw material reserves to Russia.

Jakob Kullik, Juliana Süß, Yilmaz Akkoyun
August 21, 2024
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / photothek

How much sun can be fed into the grid?

Challenges and opportunities of solar roof promotion in the context of Vietnam's energy transformation

Vietnam is one of the five countries most affected by climate change worldwide. At the same time, the energy demands of the high-consuming middle class are growing day by day. Vietnam wants to be climate-neutral by 2050. For that its industry needs to become greener, for which large-scale solar parks have been built to satisfy the new hunger for energy. But the solar boom appears to have exhausted itself. Now the focus is on non-commercial solutions: small systems on the roofs of households and offices. What opportunities does solar roof funding offer, and can we expect new impulses from it?

Peter Mayer
August 13, 2024
Country reports
Adobe Stock / Alexey Novikov

Cyber-Actors: Iran

How Attacks Strengthen the State

Iran has become a major player in the cyber and information space. Through events such as the Stuxnet attack 2010 and the organization of opposition groups through the Internet, the state has expanded its cyber capabilities. Today, Iranian cyber units have a wide range of operations at their disposal, including espionage, sabotage and influence operations. As an ally of the USA and Israel, Germany in particular is in focus of Iranian cyber operations and must be prepared for a wide range of threats.

Ferdinand Alexander Gehringer, Julia Kramer
August 2, 2024
Facts and Findings
IMAGO / ZUMA Press

Slow, Agonizing - and Unstoppable: the End of the Trudeau Era is Approaching

The Prime Minister and his difficult farewell to power

Canada in the summer of 2024: the government's run of bad luck - critics would say ongoing poor performance - has continued for almost 20 months. Hardly a week goes by without a new piece of bad news hitting the media. In the face of this misery, however, the head of government appears outwardly unimpressed - for now.

Dr. Norbert Eschborn
July 31, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Peking's Reach for the Sea of Japan

China's Geopolitics and Russia's Concessions

While Western media continues to speculate about China's role in Russia's war of aggression, Beijing is focused on maximizing its benefits. China aims to exploit Moscow's dependence on the People's Republic and expand cooperation on its own terms, not just economically. Geopolitically, this involves China's access to the Sea of Japan and extends to the Arctic. A seemingly insignificant passage in a joint statement by Presidents Xi and Putin could have far-reaching geopolitical implications, posing a serious security challenge for Japan and South Korea.

Johann C. Fuhrmann
July 31, 2024
Country reports
UN Photo/Loey Felipe

2024 High-Level Political Forum: The SDGs Caught in Geopolitical Tensions

Seeing the visible signs of fragmentation on common issues in the UN’s foremost platform for advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The United Nations (UN) High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) on Sustainable Development is an annual forum under the auspices of ECOSOC for the review of progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This year, the Forum convened at UN Headquarters in New York from 8-17 July 2024. Taking place under the theme "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions”, this year's Forum reviewed 5 SDGs: SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 16 (peaceful institutions), SDG 17 (partnerships). While the HLPF does not tend to make global headlines in the same way that the UN General Assembly does every September, the Forum remains the UN's primary gathering for high-level representatives to draw global attention to their national and political commitment to the 2030 Agenda, and in turn, to the multilateral system. The Forum consisted of a three-day Ministerial segment with speeches from 115 Ministers, Vice-Ministers, Permanent Representatives and others. Further, more than 250 high-level special events, Voluntary National Review (VNR) labs, side events and exhibitions took place in person and online.

Thomas Tödtling, Erica Mumford
July 31, 2024
Country reports

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