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IMAGO / SNA

New Iron Curtain rising on the EU border with Belarus

"New EU-sanctions package against Belarus might backfire"

After introducing the latest EU sanctions package against the Republic of Belarus, the Baltic States Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania imposed an entrance ban for almost all passenger cars with Belarusian license plates. Belarusian cars currently present in these countries were given limited time to either leave or reregister locally. Aimed at closing loopholes in the sanctions which were introduced to punish the regimes in Minsk and Moscow for their aggressive behaviour and to strengthen border security at NATO’s eastern flank, the passenger car ban sparked strong negative reactions, also from the democratic community of Belarus. They warn that shutting the EU’s door for regular citizens, most of whom voted for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in 2020, will only further alienate the Belarusian population from the West. As trade with the Lukashenka regime continues, his propaganda machine will know how to use the “travel ban” to strengthen the pro-Russian narrative claiming that “nobody in the West wants you Belarusians”.

Jakob Wöllenstein
July 30, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / NurPhoto

Georgia Meloni caught in the middle

The positioning of the governing party ‘Fratelli d'Italia’ between the far-right and the bourgeois centre

‘Montagna Russa’ is what they call the rollercoaster in Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has had a political rollercoaster ride before she soon starts her summer holiday. Between the glamour of the summit and the pitfalls of Brussels, she tried to send out signals, for example with the surprising vote of her MEPs against Ursula von der Leyen. Has the head of government overplayed her hand? Where does she want to go strategically with her right-wing conservative party, which has become the dominant force in the centre-right camp in the third-largest EU member state? Many things seem confused at this point, the gun smoke has yet to clear. We try to reconstruct the events and look to the future.

Michael Feth, Dr. Nino Galetti
July 29, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

The Beijing Declaration: Palestinian truce or Chinese PR stunt?

An initial assessment of the Beijing Declaration between Hamas and Fatah, its background and possible implications

Palestinian factions, including rivals Hamas and Fatah, declared their willingness in Beijing in July to “end divisions and strengthen Palestinian unity” following reconciliation talks hosted by China in the latest attempt to resolve the long-standing Palestinian rivalry. Similar agreements have failed in the past, damping the prospects of success. Nevertheless, bringing together 14 Palestinian factions to agree on a common framework during times of war can be considered a diplomatic achievement – not least for the host of the mediations, the People’s Republic of China.

Simon Engelkes
July 26, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Panama Pictures

The election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission

An analysis after the 2024 European elections

The center holds” - this is what Ursula von der Leyen announced on the evening of June 9 after the first projections of the European election results from the 27 European member states came in. She was proved right - the center has held: Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected Commission President on July 18 with a comfortable majority of 401 votes, presumably made up of votes from the pro-European centrist groups, i.e. the European People's Party (EPP), the Social Democrats (S&D), the Liberals and also the Greens, in a secret ballot. Her “declaration” - a kind of candidacy speech to the plenary of the European Parliament - was based on political guidelines for the next European Commission 2024-2029, which had been published shortly before her speech

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Kai Gläser
July 25, 2024
Country reports
Adobe Stock / Shutter2U / Generated with AI

IBAR: The Interim Benchmark Assessment Report in the EU Accession Process

The role and significance of the IBAR as a milestone of European integration for Montenegro and other Southeast European states.

On June 25, 2024, the European Commission certified that Montenegro was the first country in the Western Balkans to clear the IBAR hurdle. The “Interim Benchmark Assessment Report”, an interim report on the rule of law, serves as a benchmark for the progress of an EU accession candidate in this area. A positive IBAR is a confirmation of the successful steps taken under negotiation chapters 23 (Justice and Fundamental Rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security) of the accession procedure and points the way for further reforms. The decision was perceived in Montenegro as a positive signal from Brussels and generally as a sign of the EU's growing willingness to accept new members. However, some experts expressed concerns about the standards applied in the reporting process and called for further reforms. But what does the IBAR mean for a country's future path into the EU? This report looks at its relevance in the EU accession process of the candidate countries Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and specifically Montenegro.

Dr. Mahir Muharemović, Dr. Pavel Usvatov
July 25, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / IP3press

Constituent session of the National Assembly

Left-wing shift in the presidency and agreements

Thirty-nine days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, eleven days after the second round of the parliamentary elections, in which the presidential camp (Ensemble) suffered a defeat, the former Speaker of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet (Renaissance) was re-elected on 18 July. She prevailed in the third round of voting against the candidate of the left-wing electoral alliance New Popular Front, André Chassaigne (Parti communiste) and the candidate of the Rassemblement National, Sébastien Chenu. Although the election is secret, it is considered certain that Braun-Pivet was able to hold on thanks to the votes from the conservative centre-right camp. The left-wing populists of La France Insoumise described the election as stolen. In the meantime, they filed a complaint with the Constitutional Council against the fact that 17 former ministers who were still part of the caretaker government were also elected. However, one day after the defeat of the communist André Chassaigne in the election of the President of the National Assembly, the New Popular Front surprisingly won 12 out of 22 seats on the National Assembly's presidium. Rassemblement National, on the other hand, came away empty-handed: Marine Le Pen and the deputies of her parliamentary group were excluded from filling the posts in the Assembly's presidium; they were unable to provide any of the six vice-presidents, any of the three quaestor posts or even any of the twelve secretaries. The agreement between the presidential majority Ensemble and the conservative bourgeois camp also appears to have paid off when it came to filling the committee posts. Ensemble was able to retain the chairmanship of 6 of the 8 standing committees. However, the fact that the Macron camp no longer holds any of the key positions for budgetary decisions is considered a bitter setback: it lost the strategically important post of general rapporteur for the budget; the chairmanship of the finance committee remained in the hands of the left-wing camp. A new government is not expected to be formed before the end of the Olympic Games.

Anja Czymmeck, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 24, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

Sudden surprises: Biden's withdrawal and the US election campaign

President Biden's withdrawal fundamentally changes the race for the White House

For a long time, it seemed that the U.S. presidential election would resemble the one from four years ago: Joe Biden versus Donald Trump. That has changed now: After a weak performance in a televised debate and an increasingly intense debate within the Democratic Party, President Biden has bowed out of the race.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
July 23, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Scanpix

Michal for Kallas

A win-win for Kallas and Estonia

In the wake of the 2024 European elections, the Estonian government is not only still facing ongoing discussions about its budget, but is also changing its leadership.

Oliver Morwinsky, Sveta Pääru
July 23, 2024
Country reports
U.S. Mission / Eric Bridiers / flickr / CC BY-ND 2.0

Geneva Telegram on the 10th meeting of the negotiating body on the pandemic agreement

The "Geneva Telegram" deals with events in Geneva's multilateral organizations on a current topic, this time the 10th meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body on the Pandemic Agreement (INB10), which met in Geneva on 16 and 17 July 2024.

After the international community failed to agree on a binding pandemic agreement by the 77th World Health Assembly (WHA) from May 26 to June 1, 2024, a decision was made to continue the negotiation process beyond the May 2024 deadline. On July 16 and 17, 2024, the intergovernmental negotiating body, comprising all member states, reconvened. This two-day meeting had been planned as a purely organizational session back in May, so the focus was on further work planning to conclude the negotiations.

Dr. Anja Maria Rittner
July 19, 2024
Country reports
KAS

Gateway to Armenia, key to peace?

The history of the South Caucasus could be rewritten from Meghri in southern Armenia - a political travel report

In October 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan presented his government's ‘Crossroads of Peace’ initiative at a conference in Tbilisi. This envisages the opening of borders, the restoration of transport routes - road and rail - and the revitalisation of political and cultural connections in the South Caucasus. The initiative is a positive vision for a region that has been characterised by wars and conflicts for three decades. In Meghri, on Armenia's border with Iran, there are glimpses of what a peaceful South Caucasus could look like. But there is still a long way to go, and political will is needed above all. Europe could play a constructive role here.

Stephan Malerius
July 19, 2024
Country reports

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