Escalation in the Red Sea

The military dimension, the deployment of the Bundeswehr and the calculus of regional players

The deployment of the frigate Hessen to the Red Sea was described in advance as the most dangerous deployment of the German navy in the history of the Bundeswehr and is aimed at protecting funda-mental national interests. This naval mission fundamentally challenges central assumptions and plans of Germany’s defence policy of the past two decades. A return of the Bundeswehr to East Africa was long considered just as unlikely as an air defence scenario against a non-state armed group. Now the Yemeni Houthi militia is confronting the US naval forces with a primarily Iranian arsenal of weapons that is clearly superior in quality to that of many other non-state armed groups. While in terms of de-fence policy, Europe is almost completely tied down along NATO's eastern flank, it is becoming appar-ent that the conflict-ridden region around the Red Sea could pose an additional security challenge in the long term and require additional commitment and resources. After all, the maritime trade route between the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab and access to the Indo-Pacific region are of key economic and security importance for Germany and Europe.

Kuwait Before a Generational Change

A new era might dawn after the death of Emir Nawaf

Following the death of the Emir of Kuwait, a new ruler of almost the same age takes power in the Gulf emirate. The late Sheikh Nawaf ruled only briefly and will go down in history for his reconciliatory efforts with the opposition. The term of his successor Mishal is slated to mark a transition. After it, Kuwait will see a shift that could overcome years of political standstill: the passing of power to a new, younger generation of rulers, which has already taken place elsewhere in the Gulf. Thus, all eyes are already on the selection of the next crown prince. With the sons of the former and new emirs, two promising candidates are in the starting blocks - or will a third one win the race in the end?

The Gulf goes BRICS

Gulf states form the core of the latest BRICS expansion

In a surprising expansion, three states from the Gulf region are now part of the BRICS group of states. The inclusion of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is not a watershed event, but follows an already familiar pattern: middle powers in the Gulf and elsewhere strengthen their international position in the context of global great power rivalries. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seek to diversify their foreign policy relations, the regime in Tehran is once again trying to break through its international isolation. All three Gulf states are hoping for economic stimulus as well as a gain in power. The traditional BRICS agenda of establishing an alternative global financial and monetary system could also gain new momentum with three important energy exporters as new members.

Saudi Arabia: After Iran, now Israel?

New Conditions for a Saudi-Israeli Rapprochement

It would be the deal of the century - but so far it is still a long way off. An agreement between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States on the recognition of the Jewish state by the guardian of Islam's holiest sites would be a political earthquake in the region and beyond. Not only could it transform the already existing unofficial cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia into a new regional political alliance while also complicating the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It might also cement the decades-old alliance between Riyadh and Washington and counter current trends in international geopolitics, particularly the Gulf states' strategic orientation toward China. But while U.S. policymakers are already dreaming of a foreign policy coup, major hurdles to rapprochement remain: Riyadh wants advanced weapons, a civilian nuclear program and security guarantees from the United States. And last but not least, concessions from Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians.

Global Energy Markets and a Strategic Shift in the Gulf

Global energy shortages as an instrument of power

Since Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the oil- and gas-rich Gulf states have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the global energy shortages caused by the halt in Russian oil and gas supplies to most Western countries. In the absence of alternative producers, the Gulf states have come back into focus as strategically important energy exporters. This has not only increased the geopolitical relevance of the oil and gas suppliers of the Arabian Peninsula, it has also provided them with considerable profits due to exploding energy prices and thus strengthened the financial influence of the Gulf states.

Diplomatic Thaw in the Gulf?

The Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, implications for the region, and China's newfound role as a Middle East mediator

After more than seven years without diplomatic relations, Iran and Saudi Arabia surprisingly announced a foreign policy rapprochement in Beijing. Is this a turning point in the Iranian-Saudi rivalry, which has broad repercussions in the region from Iraq to Lebanon to Yemen? The agreement between the two Gulf adversaries is an attempt by Iran to break its international isolation and the result of a changing Saudi foreign policy. Meanwhile, China is challenging the U.S. for its influence as the traditional dominant power in the Gulf.

Präsidentschaftswahl im Iran 2021

Von Wächterrat, Wahlboykott und Wettbewerbsverzerrung

Am 18. Juni wird im Iran ein neuer Präsident gewählt. In dem Bestreben, die Macht des Establishments zu stärken, hat die Wahlaufsicht des Regimes Kandidaten aus den Reihen der Moderaten und Reformkräfte disqualifiziert, was zu breiten Boykottaufrufen geführt hat. Der Wahlsieg des als Establishment-Spitzenkandidat gehandelten Ebrahim Raisi, der dem Obersten Führer Ali Khamenei nahesteht, scheint sicher. Eine Änderung der allgemeinen politischen Ausrichtung des Regimes wird nicht erwartet.

"This war has to end"

100 Tage Biden und Perspektiven für eine Konfliktlösung im Jemen

Ein Ende des Krieges im Jemen – das ist die klare Forderung des neuen US-Präsidenten Joe Biden. Dies markiert eine Wende in der amerikanischen Außenpolitik, die mit einem neuen Kurs auch gegenüber Saudi-Arabien und dem saudisch-iranischen Verhältnis einhergeht. Durch die proaktive Initiative der neuen US-Regierung ergeben sich zum ersten Mal seit langer Zeit Perspektiven für eine Konflikt- und Kriegsbeilegung im Jemen. Viele zentrale Fragen bleiben jedoch noch ungeklärt.

Ein Ende der Golf-Krise?

Zur Wiederannäherung zwischen Katar und seinen Nachbarn

Mehr als drei Jahre nach Beginn der Blockade gegen das Emirat Katar zeichnet sich eine Aussöhnung zwischen den Golf-Staaten, insbesondere Saudi-Arabien und Katar, ab. Das erste Mal seit 2017 nahm der katarische Emir Anfang Januar wieder beim Treffen des Golf-Kooperationsrats in der saudischen Wüstenstadt Al-Ula teil, auf welchem die Mitgliedsstaaten ein Abkommen über „Solidarität und Stabilität“ unterzeichneten. Unter Vermittlung insbesondere der USA und Kuwaits ist es gelungen, dass sich Katar und seine Nachbarn wieder annähern. Damit könnten sich Perspektiven für einen geeinten Golf-Kooperationsrat, regionale Stabilität und wirtschaftliche Prosperität ergeben.

Jemen - Entwicklungen im Schatten von Corona

112.000 Tote - so lauten Schätzungen zu Opferzahlen des Krieges im Jemen, der seit sechs Jahren anhält. Das ohnehin arme und von mehreren Krisen erschütterte Land steht für die schlimmste humanitäre Katastrophe unserer Zeit. Trotz der katastrophalen humanitären Lage und dem zusätzlichen Druck durch COVID-19 stagniert die internationale Hilfe. Derweil ist es trotz zahlreicher Bemühungen bis heute nicht gelungen, die militärische Eskalation zu beenden. Den nationalen Dialog zu fördern und lokale und nationale Strukturen zu stärken bzw. aufzubauen, könnten Elemente sein, um politische Verhandlungen und eine nachhaltige Konfliktlösung zu unterstützen.