The reaction of the Gulf States to US President Trump’s Peace to Prosperity Plan – also known as the deal of the century – can be summarised in one sentence: the Gulf States support peace between the Palestinians and Israelis, but not the Peace Plan proposed. However, because the Plan is widely believed to have been put forth in the context of increased ties between Israel and the Gulf States – of which, mainly, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Oman – there is a belief that these states might exert pressure on the Palestinians to accept the Plan. Furthermore, there is a belief that the Gulf States are actively working to normalise relations with Israel.

This analysis will focus primarily on the evolution of the relations between Israel and both the UAE and KSA in order to advance three main arguments. The first is that the Gulf States will not accept a Plan that is rejected by the Palestinians. Further, any pressure they might impose on the Palestinians related to this Plan will be time-bound to the period of Trump’s presidency. The second argument is related to the widespread belief that the UAE and KSA need Israel for a host of reasons including its mighty army and technological advancement so as to counter Iran’s influence in the region. Against this conviction, this article argues that the two countries need Israel mainly because they believe it can influence the trajectory of US foreign policy in the region. If Israel continue to lose this leverage, as it did during Obama’s presidency, it also loses its attraction to the UAE and KSA. Finally, this article argues that the KSA and UAE are aware that they lose more than they gain from stronger ties to Israel, which makes them both, and the KSA in particular, very careful and cautious with regard to a potential amplification of such relations.

This article shall first explain Trump’s plan and the positions of the Gulf States with regard to it. The reasons for, and constraints upon, a rapprochement between Israel and both the UAE and KSA shall then be detailed.The financial leverage the UAE and KSA have on the Palestinians should they chose to pressure the Palestinians to accept Trump’s plan shall then be illustrated. The article concludes by emphasising the central importance of US regional policies on the future of relations between Israel and both the UAE and KSA.