Mr C V Subba Rao, President, MMA delivered the welcome address. He focused on the development that India has achieved, its advantageous geography and the possibility of it developing into a global power.
Mr Peter Rimmele, Resident Representative of KAS to India in his opening remarks traced the challenges to multilateralism as emanating from countries like China and Russia. Due to the continuing conflict between US and China, despite the change of government in the US, liberal order is under strain, he said. He stressed the need for like-minded and democratic nations to come together to present a united front and tackle the challenges that the world is facing.

Mr Peter Rimmele also batted for cooperation between EU and India to uphold democratic values, strengthen the rule of law and human rights and to ensure effective federalism in the emerging world order. He strongly advocated that only through multilateralism and cooperation that India can address the challenges posed by the geo-political landscape.

Group Captain R Vijayakumar VSM (Retd), Executive Director, MMA released the December 2021 edition of MMA’s state-of-the-art digital magazine ‘Business Mandate’ in the presence of the panelists and dignitaries. He highlighted the features of the magazine including embedded videos and easy-to-read-andshare format.

Mr M K Narayanan, Former National Security Advisor of India (NSA) and former Governor of West Bengal delivered the key note address.

In his opinion, the rule based world order hardly existed. He asserted that the 21st century appeared adrift, in deep contrast to the last decade of 20th century. He compared the various respective attributes and said that today there is neither a bipolar nor a multipolar world, with the geopolitics center of gravity having shifted to Asia. He noted that the foremost challenge to the world order is the Chinese quest for global hegemony on all fronts- geo economic, geographic and geo political. Even the West Asia seems to have become a maneuvering ground for gaining influence by China, Russia and the nations of the region- the Abraham accords being the only positive, though ineffective development.

He advised India to seize the leadership of a world adrift and to revive its leadership of its non-aligned group of nations while not shying away from taking hard decisions regarding China and Pakistan to address the underlying tensions. The enemy is at the gates and India needed to enforce the adherence of the agreements on border issues with China and reopen lines of communication with Pakistan, in spite of its perfidious behavior. India also should work harder to revitalize relations with Russia; and South as well as West Asian countries, he added.

Mr Narayanan pointed out that India - US relations were never as vibrant as they are today. However, he cautioned that India must maintain its strategic autonomy. India and Europe have a natural congruence of purpose, not limited to trade. What is needed is a vision with regard to future cooperation. Dr. Angela Merkel’s leadership has been a defining factor of the world order. Many more such leaders are needed in the current context, he said.

Dr Stanly Johny, International Affairs Editor, The Hindu moderated a panel discussion. The distinguished panelists who participated in the discussions were:

• Prof Dr Heribert Dieter, Senior Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
• Dr. Gudrun Wacker, Senior Fellow, Asia Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
• Prof Dr Carlo Masala, Professor at the Universitat at Bunderwehr Munchen
• Ambassador P S Raghavan, Former Chairman, National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to Russia

Prof Dr Heribert Dieter focused on the economic dimension. He saw the global economic governance return to a new economic iron curtain, with China being deprived of sensitive technology like the semi-conductor manufacturing equipment’s and aircraft engine and control systems; and that politics of economics has assumed a new importance.

WTO, he said, had design problems. He pointed out that in China, labour costs are now high, the work force has shrunk by 25%, productivity is decreasing and Communist Party’s interference is increasing. This has become a deterrent for investments in new supply chains in China, while in India, the situation is quite to the contrary. India has a golden opportunity, he said.

Dr. Gudrun Wacker said that for China, things changed after the financial crisis of 2008. “They thought that their time of waiting was over and under the leadership of Xi Jinping, it has become aggressive in its approach with a toolbox full of sticks and also, some carrots. Their wolf warrior diplomacy has caused a geoeconomics and geopolitical shift and the world is looking to lower its dependency on China,” she observed.

Prof Dr Carlo Masala agreed with Ms. Wacker that the world was in transition and was shifting from a unipolar to a bipolar structure but this transition phase was the phase of world disorder, characterized by revisionist powers- Russia and China. While Russia is ruthless, China is cleverer and rising. They are in a partnership of convenience. Multilateral institutions have become dysfunctional and new forms of cooperation are advisable, he suggested.

He further enunciated that Asia is the new epicenter where the new world order will be decided. He remarked that how the US deals with the Taiwan situation will send a critical message to the rest of the world. He argued that India cannot remain neutral for long and it needs to align itself to one side. According to him, Germany and India must be on the side of the US.

He observed that the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) was never neutral and historically it was closer to one pole than the other. Massive military build-up here could easily spiral into a conflict and with 5 nuclear powers in the region, the need for confidence building measures is paramount.

While we talk of rules-based world order, we need to ask the question: Whose rules do we refer to? “Countries having like-interests coming together is more important than like- minded countries coming together,” he said.

Ambassador P S Raghavan opined that we are moving towards a bipolarity with multi polar characteristics, unlike the older template. He agreed with Mr M K Narayanan on recalibrating the relations in the neighbourhood, but noted that the management of relations with China is critical.

According to him, taking sides between US and China is a no-brainer, as the relationship with US on all levels has been great but the fact remained that India has a physical border with China and the 2005 agreement between India and China is an innovative as well as important one in many senses. The problem arises when India is asked to take a side between US and Russia. Also a RussiaChina nexus against India is something that India definitely does not need, he said.

Ambassador Raghavan also said that a template has to be created wherein the challenges to Indian interests in the extended neighborhood need to be addressed. Any talk of a rules-based order becomes complicated for any country which is not a part of the process of framing rules.

He remarked that Indo-Pacific is a geography defined differently by different countries and Asia- pacific, of which India is not a part, is more a political concept. India must see the world from its own vantage point and define its role in the new world order, he remarked.

In the Q&A session, the panel members answered a number of questions, which were moderated by Dr Stanly Johny. On the future of globalization, Prof. Dieter pointed out that globalisation benefitted the world including China and that a huge chunk of people had been lifted out of poverty. So such a concept would evolve to suit the current circumstances. He said that economic debate was more about competition than about harmony.

Asked if China will succeed in altering the rules of multilateralism, Dr Wacker opined that China has already started doing that. With the US abdicating its leadership, China has been quickly occupying that space and succeeding. It has captured the north-south narrative quite effectively. The whole process was very stealthy and by the time it was noticed, it was already too late, she added.

In the debate on the legitimacy of the Chinese versus democratic system, she remarked that the problem was that the democracies rested on the laurels of the victory of democratic nations in WWII and since then, they were not able to send a message about the efficiency and achievements of democracy while in China, the narrative has been controlled by the state.

Asked if the new geopolitical competition is a new cold war, Prof Masala said that if power is the primary deciding factor, then yes, this is a new cold war and that tensions are as high now as they were in the two instances of high tensions in the old cold war.

India is facing an aggressive China. The US wants India to play an important role while leaving India with more challenges on the continental Asia. Asked how India must tackle these challenges, Ambassador Raghavan said that protecting India’s continental flank is important and it must find its own solutions. India’s dominance in the region is important to the USA too, he said.

The US Capitalism and Globalization had obituaries written many times for them as had the Chinese system of governance but they are here, evolved and vibrant. Is non-capitalism with Chinese characteristics or capitalism by the State as Dr. Wacker put it, an alternative model? We will find out soon enough, perhaps even in this decade!

Mr Pankaj Madan, Deputy Head-India Office & Head Programmes, KAS delivered the concluding remarks. He summed up the entire proceedings of the conclave and noted that the ‘China factor’ dominated the discussions.

Group Captain R Vijayakumar VSM (Retd), Executive Director, MMA proposed the vote of thanks. The session which started at 5.15 pm ended at 8.00 pm, followed by a dinner. Over 170 participants attended the event at Hotel Leela Palace and several others watched the programme live on various social media platforms.

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