On the background of a seismic and geopolitical shift, the economic Cedar Conference was held on April 6, 2018, ushering new arrangements in the region and inside Lebanon which jeopardize chances to implement the roadmap it has outlined. Lebanon is mired in a long running political crisis mirroring regional conflicts, especially the Syrian war raging on its borders. Three months after the dust has settled in its parliamentary elections, the formation of a new government is still stymied by continuous stalemates among political players, which have been re-elected, although in different weights; a government that will return some measure of predictability to the country’s constitutional institutions. If the formation of a new government is a first prerequisite step for donors at Cedar Conference to enforce its outcome, it will surely not be the last. To unlock pledged investments and soft loans, the tiny country is urged to move swiftly on political and economic reforms. These reforms are stalled by the country’s disrupted social contract, deeply engulfed in sectarian shackles.

The policy paper analyses the geopolitical situation of Lebanon, highlighting events and actors, like Rafic Hariri, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the US, that shaped the political and economic landscape of Lebanon. Against this background, the author discusses the Cedar conference and its impact, while offering an outlook on the upcoming challenges.

The study is available in English and Arabic.