Publikationen

Energy Rent as the Limit of Integration

According to a closed working report by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus prepared for the Council of Ministers, Minsk and Moscow have reached the final stage of agreeing a framework medium-term plan — the “Main Directions for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State” for 2027–2029. The final stage is likely to be difficult and will clearly demonstrate the limits of integration rapprochement.

Dzmitry Pantus and the Transformation of Belarus's Defence Industry

An overview of Dzmitry Pantus’s career and the transformation of Belarus’s defence industry under his leadership, including its growing integration with Russia, military modernisation, sanctions and international arms trade.

Russian “Deathonomics” and Belarus’s Economic Vulnerability

Policy Brief

How are Russia’s war economy, sanctions circumvention, and Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Moscow reshaping the region — and what policy options remain for the European Union and Belarusian democratic actors?

Der Essay von Sviatlana Kurs (Eva Vežnavec) „Die UdSSR als Wiege und Grab“.

Der Text entstand 2021 für ein Literaturprojekt der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung und kann auf Belarussisch sowie in deutscher Übersetzung gelesen und heruntergeladen werden.

Religion, Church and State in Belarus and Russia

Policy Brief

How do the regimes in Minsk and Moscow use religious institutions, and religious rhetoric for ideological mobilisation, political legitimisation, and external influence?

Belarus and Russia under war and sanctions: social attitudes for the EU and democratic forces

Policy Brief

How do societies in Belarus and Russia adapt to prolonged war, repression and economic pressure—and why does fatigue not translate into political change?

Steht ein unmittelbarer Kriegseintritt von Belarus gegen die Ukraine bevor?

Seit Wochen warnt der ukrainische Präsident Selenskyj, Russland versuche, Belarus offen in den Krieg hineinzuziehen.

Laut Präsident Selenskyj haben ukrainische Geheimdienste den Bau von Straßen in Richtung der ukrainischen Grenze sowie die Vorbereitung von Artilleriestellungen in Belarus registriert. Russland ziehe demnach offensive Szenarien aus Belarus in Richtung Tschernihiw und Kyjiw in Betracht. Der Oberbefehlshaber der ukrainischen Streitkräfte erklärte, der russische Generalstab prüfe Offensivoperationen aus dem Norden, um die Frontlinie zu strecken. Nach mehrheitlicher Einschätzung unabhängiger belarusischer Analysten sind bislang jedoch keine Truppenbewegungen zu beobachten, die diese Szenarien klar untermauern würden. Ein direkter belarusischer Kriegseintritt bleibt weiterhin wenig wahrscheinlich. Gleichwohl ist die Lage angesichts der engen militärischen Bindung an Russland und des hohen Militarisierungsgrades angespannt. Zuletzt führten Russland und Belarus gemeinsame Manöver mit nuklearer Dimension durch und bauten damit eine klare Drohkulisse auf. Am 25. Mai traf Sviatlana Tichanowskaja als führende Vertreterin der demokratischen belarusischen Opposition in Kyjiw ein – ein wichtiges politisches Signal der Ukraine, dass die ukrainisch-belarusischen Beziehungen stärker an der demokratischen Opposition ausgerichtet und von Machthaber Lukaschenko distanziert werden sollen.

BELARUS AFTER A POTENTIAL PEACE SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE:

scenarios, risks and opportunities for the EU

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Belarus has become deeply embedded in the war's military, logistical and political infrastructure, despite not being a full-fledged participant. The war's future course, including the prospect of a peace settlement, will directly impact Belarus's military, political and economic reliance on Russia, its relations with the West and Ukraine, the sustainability of sanctions, the trajectory of the regime and its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy. This paper assumes that for Belarus, it is not only important whether the war continues, but also the regional environment that will emerge from any given outcome. Three potential paths that the war could take are introduced here, each of which would create qualitatively different conditions for Minsk.

THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA: A LABORATORY FOR THE CONSOLIDATION OF AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES

Policy Brief

How should we really understand the Union State — failed integration project or something far more consequential?

Update Belarus: “Release” of Political Prisoners — December 13, 2025

Newsletter of 16th December

Top news in the period under review: Following negotiations with Trump’s Special Envoy in Belarus Coale on December 12 and 13, the Belarusian ruler released 123 prisoners on December 13 to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. 114 were deported to Ukraine, including 104 Belarusians and  five Ukrainian citizens. The rest including the Belarusian Nobel Prize laureate Ales Bialatski were deported to Lithuania. Among the released are prominent human rights defenders and Viasna members Ales Bialiatski and Uladzimir Labkovich, as well as key opposition figures, such as Maryia Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka and lawyer Maksim Znak, co-chairman of the BCD party Paval Seviarynets.