A new Policy Brief by the Institute for Development and Social Market in Belarus and Eastern Europe (IDSMBEE), prepared in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s Belarus Country Office, challenges conventional assumptions. Drawing on expert discussions from Belarusian and Russian specialists, it reveals how the Union State functions not as a dysfunctional relic—but as a flexible and effective framework for authoritarian consolidation.
Key insights include:
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Why the Union State’s institutional ambiguity is its greatest strength
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How Belarus operates as an “offshore” hub for sanctions circumvention
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The hidden costs—and strategic benefits—of deepening asymmetry between Minsk and Moscow
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The growing security risks for Ukraine and the wider region
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Why current sanctions approaches may be reinforcing dependency rather than reducing it
This brief offers a critical rethinking of how policymakers should approach the Union State—highlighting the urgent need to target its operational core without further isolating Belarusian society.