Overcoming the impasse of war and repressions

Scenarios for Belarus




Ever since Russia launched its massive attack on Ukraine through Belarusian territory with the logistical and propagandistic support of the Lukashenka regime, experts have been debating: Is Belarus a co-aggressor or just another victim of Moscow’s imperialism? Is the Belarusian army going to actively enter the hostilities or will Minsk find a way to reposition itself as a peace-broker like in 2014? What do Belarusians think about the war – do they fall for the synchronized propaganda? If not, what can Belarusians do to help Ukraine and is there still a chance for democratic changes in Belarus itself? Will Russia annex Belarus as a “consolation prize” if it gets pushed back in Ukraine? The answers to these questions matter a lot since the developments in Belarus will be key to security and stability in Eastern Europe as a whole. On our podium we want to discuss these and more topics, drawing from a scenario workshop that we conducted with international experts within the project “European Network for Belarus”.

18:00 – Welcome Remarks

18:05 – Preliminary Results of the Belarus Scenario Workshop


Dr Katerina Bornukova
Academic Director of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC)

Dr Tatsiana Chulitskaya
Research Fellow, Manchester Metropolitan University
and Vilnius University

Artyom Shraibman
Director of SENSE Analytics, Belarus

Jakob Wöllenstein
Director Belarus Office, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung



Olga Dryndova
Coordinator “European Network for Belarus”, Austausch e. V.
Editor “Belarus-Analysen”, Bremen University

19:10 – QnA and discussion with the audience

19:30 – Snacks and Opportunity to continue the debate

The discussion is organised within the project "European Network for Belarus” in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS). The project aims at developing a European Network of NGOs, experts, and political representatives to support the democracy movement in Belarus and is implemented in cooperation with seven partners operating in Belarus, Poland, Lithuania, and Germany. The Network should strengthen the exchange on Belarus-related topics and enhance the visibility of Belarus in the project partner countries as well as on EU level. The project is funded by the German Federal Foreign Office within the Programme “Expanding Cooperation with Civil Society in the EaP Countries and Russia” and the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF).  


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Akademie der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Tiergartenstr. 35,
10785 Berlin



  • Dr Katerina Bornukova
    • Dr Tatsiana Chulitskaya
      • Artyom Shraibman
        • Jakob Wöllenstein
          • Olga Dryndova