From Situation Analysis to Foresight

The 1st expert seminar within the frames of the joint project with WMCES

The first expert seminar according to the methodology of situational analysis/scenario planning was organised on April 13 in Minsk by the Minsk Dialogue initiative in cooperation with Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies and Belarus Office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

The event entitled «Cold War 2.0? To what extend are the historic parallels relevant to the world and countries of Eastern Europe?» gathered more than 10 experts from Belarus, Russia, United States and European union.

The participants discussed the issues of structural characteristics, similarities and differences between the Cold War and today’s conflict between Russia and the West; lacunae in international security regimes and potential risks; the main interests of key players; possible mechanisms to de-escalate tensions and build a stable and predictable international system as well as strategies and tactics of in-between countries.

As a result of these discussions the experts have defined key factors (internal and external) that can affect the international security situation as well as critical uncertainties which form a matrix of future possible scenarios. These scenarios will be described in details in a final analytical report of the seminar.

Cold War 2