Demographic Development in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Consequences of the Significant Decrease and Aging of the Population

The shrinking population is not a novelty in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Political and economic shortcomings are the main reasons driving emigration, especially of qualified workforce. The Bosnian-Herzegovinian diaspora (citizens living abroad) is proportionally one of the largest in the world. Additionally, an aging population due to declining birth rates is a growing concern. These two factors together have led to an estimated decline in the population by an average of 25,000 people per year during the period 2013 - 2020. The last census in 2013 counted around 3.5 million residents. Projections suggest a 55% population decline by 2070. The remaining approximately 1.56 million people are likely to face a drastically changed societal structure. This poses significant challenges to the labor market and social systems, particularly the pension, healthcare, and education systems. Addressing these challenges effectively requires sustained political will over an extended period to secure Bosnia and Herzegovina's future in the face of the expected drastic demographic changes. Initial steps in this direction have been taken, and more are planned. However, successful mitigation of the challenges of demographic change requires both the implementation of planned measures and the adoption of additional far-reaching actions.

Government formations in Bosnia and Herzegovina through new coalitions

New parties taking responsibilty in the government

208 days after the elections on October 2, 2022, the governments in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) are in office at the state level and in the entities Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and Republika Srpska (RS). While the process of forming a government in the state as a whole and in the RS ran smoothly, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt had to make use of the so-called "Bonn Powers" again, after using them for the electoral law change on election night, to break the blockade in the appointment of the Prime Minister of the FBiH and end his government.

On October 02, 2022, the voters elected the three-member state presidency, a chamber of the state parliament (House of Representatives), the president and the national assembly of the entity Republika Srpska and the second chamber of the entity parliament as well as the assemblies of the ten cantons in the entity FBiH and in the self-governing district of Brčko. From now on Denis Bećirović (SDP), Željko Komšić (DF) and Željka Cvijanović (SNSD) form the state presidency. Bećirović and Cvijanović were elected to the state presidency for the first time. The formation and election of the members of the second chamber (House of Nations) of the parliament of the FBiH took place only after the elections by the parliaments of the 10 cantons. This is what the electoral law change implemented by the High Representative referred to. The Central Election Commission (CIK) provides a detailed overview of all election results on the Internet.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political and Social Impact One Year After the Start of Russia's War of Aggression against Ukraine

The Western Balkans State in the Sights of Russian Politics

For years Russian actions of disruption and destabilization of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be observed. The War in Ukraine sheds new light on this interference since it serves also the interest of Republika Srpska´s President Milorad Dodik.

Rechtsstaatsentwicklungen im Überblick: Turbulentes Wahljahr in Bosnien und Herzegowina

Rettungsversuche des gestörten Rechtssystems und wesentliche Entscheidungen des Hohen Repräsentanten Christian Schmidt

Bosnien und Herzegowina (BiH) durchlebt seit Mitte 2021 eine tiefe verfassungsrechtliche und politische Krise. Nachdem 2021 mehrere Entscheidungen des Verfassungsgerichts von BiH (VerfG BiH) und eine wichtige Entscheidung des Hohen Repräsentanten für BiH (HR BiH) zur Frage des Staatseigentums und der Kompetenzen des Staates BiH ergangen waren, hat es auf der gesamtstaatlichen Ebene keine nennenswerte gesetzgeberische Aktivität gegeben. Damit sind das Parlament und die Regierung von BiH ihren gesetzlichen Aufgaben nicht nachgekommen und haben faktisch weiter an Bedeutung verloren. Die Schwächung des Zentralstaates nützt indessen den Sezessionisten in BiH, die den Staat zunehmend destabilisieren. Das VerfG BiH und der HR mussten im Jahr 2022 mehrere bedeutende Entscheidungen treffen. Diese Entscheidungen und die unter diesen schwierigen Rahmenbedingungen am 2. Oktober 2022 erfolgreich abgehaltenen Wahlen lassen hoffen, dass die Organe des Gesamtstaates gefestigt werden. Die Verleihung des Status eines EU-Beitrittskandidaten am 15.12.2022 könnte zudem zum Momentum für eine dringend notwendige Verbesserung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit in BiH werden.

Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

First woman elected to the Presidency

On October 02, 2022, elections took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina for all democratic offices at the national, entity and cantonal level. 7,258 women and men stood for election. Around 3.3 million voters had the right to vote. The parliamentary elections took place for the ninth time and presidential elections for the eighth time. Željko Komšić and Denis Bećirović were elected to the seat of the Croatian and Bosniak member of the Presidency, whereas the Serbian seat was won by Željka Cvijanović. This was the first time that a woman was elected member of the Presidency. She will succeed Milorad Dodik, who has attracted attention due to his separatist rhetoric and who ran for president of Republika Srpska (RS) during these elections. At the moment of writing of this report, the counting of the votes for the election of members of parliaments and president and deputy president of RS is still ongoing. Shortly after the closing of the polling stations, the High Representative announced several reforms. Christian Schmidt amended the Electoral Law in the part related to the House of Peoples of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and adapted procedural provisions in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), which, according to him, aims at resolving the institutional deadlock that had been in place for years. The Embassy of the United States of America and the Embassy of United Kingdom reacted positively to Schmidt's decisions, while the Delegation of the European Union (EU) clearly distanced itself from them in a statement.

Der Russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine – Reaktionen auf dem Westbalkan

Der russische Angriff auf die Ukraine am 24. Februar 2022 hat in Europa, dem breiteren Westen aber auch weltweit für starke Reaktionen gesorgt – gerade letzteres zeigte sich in einer Resolution der Vollversammlung der Vereinten Nationen vom 2. März, als diese das russische Vorgehen mit einer überwältigenden Mehrheit von 141 gegen 5 bei 35 Enthaltungen verurteilte. Alle Länder des Westbalkan stimmten in New York für die Resolution – jedoch unterhält die Region komplizierte historische, politische, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Beziehun-gen zu Russland, aber auch zur Ukraine. Wie also haben die Menschen und politischen Institutionen der Region das Handeln Russlands aufgefasst? Welche Narrative herrschen vor? Und was ist für die Zukunft zu erwarten? Die Auslandsmitarbeiter der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Belgrad, Sarajevo, Tirana, Skopje und Zagreb berichten.

''My heart will beat for this region even when…''

Continuation of partnership policy is expected

Without the influence and experience of Angela Merkel as the Head of Government of the EU's most populous country, the European Union faces new challenges.

Gute Nachrichten aus Mostar

Nach 12 Jahren ohne Kommunalwahlen in Mostar nahmen 52.865 Wählerinnen und Wähler ihr Wahlrecht wahr. Die Wahlbeteiligung der Wahlen am 20. Dezember 2020 lag damit bei 55 %. Mit der Wahl von Bürgermeister Dr. Mario Kordić durch den Stadtrat ist die Stadtspitze von Mostar vollständig. Tatsache ist, dass die Wahlen erst nach starkem Druck der internationalen Gemeinschaft und Gerichtsentscheidungen möglich wurden.

''Future as a duty'' – the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina

A new High Representative will assume office in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the coming months. Valentin Inzko, an Austrian, has been holding this position since 2009. He made repeated efforts to maintain a diplomatic and fair relationship with the key political actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. An important pre-requisite for the work of a High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina includes vast political experience and support by the international community. An important step for the second pre-requisite has been made with the inauguration of the US President Joe Biden: It is expected that the United States of America and the European Union will again closely coordinate their political engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the neighbouring countries.

Images from Bosnia: Why is there no improvement?

Images from Bosnia point to the detrimental situation of migrants. In the midst of winter, some do not live in fortified camps or shelters, but in improvised tents in the forests near the Croatian border – an EU external border. The closure of the Lipa tent camp by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) due to the camp's insufficient standards has raised questions. After all, in the past three years the European Union has invested more than 88 million euro in improving the migrants’ conditions. Individual EU states, such as Germany, have also supported the authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and important international aid organizations, such as the IOM, are active in the country. Nevertheless, the problem does not seem to have been resolved, and the migrants’ situation not to have improved. Why?