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Roadmap of Reciprocal Steps for a Limited De-escalation between Belarus and the EU

An Expert View

During the year 2025 the Belarusian regime has pursued an active diplomatic outreach toward the United States. This process has included high-level contacts, group releases (and deportations) of political prisoners, and the first precedent easing of the U.S. sanctions since 2020.

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However, the diplomatic track aimed at overcoming the humanitarian crisis in Belarus and ending Minsk’s hostile actions toward its neighbours cannot be complete without the involvement of the European Union, with its leverage and its own requirements for the Belarusian authorities.
 

The authors of this strategic paper, supported by KAS Belarus, share in it their concept of how a mutual, step-by-step process of limited de-escalation between Minsk and the European Union could be structured:
 

  • Where such a process should start,
  • On what principles reciprocal steps should be based, and
  • Which mechanisms for guaranteeing and verifying interim progress should be built into the design of the negotiations.

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