New Policy Brief Assesses the Implications of Russia’s War Economy and Belarus’s Increasing Economic Dependence
This policy brief summarises the findings of an expert discussion involving Belarusian and Russian experts on the economic consequences of war, sanctions, and regional integration. It examines Russia’s transition towards a military-capitalist economic model, Belarus’s deepening dependence on Russia, sanctions circumvention, the growing role of China, and policy options for the European Union and Belarusian democratic actors.
The publication argues that Belarus faces a strategic risk distinct from Russia’s wartime militarisation: the gradual accumulation of economic dependencies that could further limit its room for manoeuvre. It therefore calls for a strategy of “pressure combined with preservation”: maintaining pressure on Russia’s war economy while safeguarding legitimate civilian, economic, educational, and technological channels for Belarusian society and private actors.
Download the policy brief: Russian “Deathonomics” and Belarus’s Economic Vulnerability
A more detailed overview of the expert discussion on which the policy brief is based is available in the Russian-language synopsis: “Российская «смертономика» и её последствия для Беларуси и региона”