Belarus and the War
- ISW: Russian and Belarusian forces continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 15 and appear to be implementing some tactical lessons from Russia’s experience in Ukraine. Acc. to the Russian MoD, training exercises were conducted at the Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast and in Kaliningrad Oblast and the Barents Sea. Russian forces also conducted exercises in Russia’s Far East. The Russian MoD claimed *that Russian elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast; *that the nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching a missile strike against a naval target; *that elements of the Russian Northern Fleet practiced striking a mock enemy nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea; *that Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers patrolled ”the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours. The Belarusian MoD reported that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Turkey, observed Zapad-2025 exercises in Belarus. The ISW concludes that Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises to practice potential future kinetic provocations against neighboring NATO states. Previously, the ISW reported that Moscow and Minsk softened rhetoric around Zapad-2025.
- After the final play held within the framework of the Zapad 2025 exercise in the 227th combined-arms training area on September 16, Chief of the International Military Cooperation Department, Aide for International Military Cooperation to Lukashenka’s Defense Minister Valery Revenko reported on a complex of measures Belarus had taken to enable the transparency of Zapad 2025. He also stated that Belarus demanded that Poland clarify its military activity and a response was received. Revenko saw in the Polish response to the Belarusian request an opportunity for a constructive conversation.
- Lukashenka’s MoD Khrenin went to Russia to observe the Russian part of Zapad-2025.
- Commenting on Zapad-2025, the Chief of the General Staff - First Deputy MoD Pavel Muraveyko noted that the active phase of Zapad-2025 is ending. At the same time, the maneuvers will end when all units return to their deployment locations. Muraveyko noted that during the exercise, as announced, issues related to nuclear weapons and Oreshnik were worked out.
- In an interview with the Russian magazine Razvedchik, Lukashenka slammed the unfriendly policy of the West toward Belarus and Russia.
- iSANS published a study on calls for genocide of Ukrainians in Russian and Belarusian propaganda.
- Belarusian Investigative Center: Belarusian companies supply drones to Russia.
- On September 14, after the launch of Shahed-type attack drones from the Bryansk and Oryol regions of Russia, one of them invaded the airspace of Belarus.
- The Adler-Kaliningrad train arrived in Belarus six hours late after an explosion in the Russian Oryol region.
- On 10 September, Radio Svoboda (Ukrainian Service) published an investigation into the construction of military infrastructure in Belarus, including a new military facility in the Minsk region. Journalists stated that construction began in June 2024 on the site of the former military town No. 25 “Pavlovka,” in Slutsk district. It cannot be ruled out that the site is intended for deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile system, or alternatively for units of the so-called Southern Operational Command.
- iSANS issued a report on preparations and situation before the Zapad-2025 drills in Belarus.
Democratic Forces
- On September 12, Tsikhanouskaya made a statement on Zapad 2025, noting that the exercise doesn’t strengthen Belarus’ security. On the contrary, this exercise is about subordinating Belarus to Russia and dragging Belarusians into someone else’s war.
- Tsikhanouskaya met with the new Speaker of the Lithuanian Seimas, Juozas Olekas. Until recently, Mr. Olekas chaired the parliamentary group “For a Democratic Belarus”. The parties discussed key issues of Belarusian–Lithuanian cooperation.
- A press conference was held in the Lithuanian Seimas, attended by political prisoners Dzmitry Kuchuk, Mikola Dziadok, and Larisa Shchyrakova, who were released last week, as well as the Speaker of the Lithuanian Seimas, Juozas Olekas, and MPs of the "For a Democratic Belarus" group, Ruslanas Baranovas and Tomas Tomilinas.
- Tsikhanouskaya took part in a discussion on Belarus at the First European Forum for Freedom and Democracy, which is being held in Italy with the support of the European Parliament. The event is attended by journalists, scientists, politicians from EU countries, Nobel laureates and young activists.
- Political prisoners released! Weekly updates from Tsikhanouskaya’s Office: September 8–14.
- Latushka discussed the closure of the border with the Polish MFA. Latushka noted that the UTC supports enhancing the pressure on Lukashenka’s regime, including the economic one, to force the regime to change the internal repressive and foreign aggressive policy. At the same time, according to Latushka, it is important to preserve the possibility of traveling for Belarusians to the EU countries. Separately the parties discussed the problem of political prisoners in Belarus, the situation around Zapad 2025, as well as a recent violation of the airspace of Poland by Russian drones from Belarus.
- Political prisoners released on September 11 have begun to receive their first payments. The money collected during the emergency collection (almost 110 thousand euros) will be used to cover the costs associated with legalizing people, as well as their other needs.
- Belarusian NGOs met in Warsaw to coordinate support for political prisoners in case of mass releases.
- The Radio Svaboda media warned about the mass distribution of fake requests to democratic activists and organizations on behalf of the resource.
Repressions
- +9 political prisoners; a total of 1168 as of September 16.
- The KGB included the initiative "Platform 375" in the list of "extremist formations". The entry indicates that Kirill Poznyak is related to the "extremist formation". Reportedly, he was detained. In early September, the Ministry of Information added the pages of the Platform 375 project to the “Republican List of Extremist Materials”.
- The Ministry of Information once again updated the list of “extremist materials.” It was mainly replenished with Instagram accounts.
- The MoI added another 25 people to the list of persons “involved in extremist activities.”
- Journalist Ihar Ilyash was sentenced to four years in a penal colony for working with independent media.
- Dissidentby: at the end of August, political prisoner Nikita Zolotarev cut his veins in prison. "Nikita is alive, but his condition is a cause for serious concern.
- European Humanities University can be recognized as an "extremist organization."
- The Belarusian Helsinki Committee presented its analysis of the main trends in state policy affecting human rights for May to August 2025.
- Chronicle of political persecution on September 13-15.
The State
- Lukashenka is ready to participate in the development of the Russian-occupied territories of the Kherson region. He stated this while meeting with collaborator Vladimir Saldo, who is considered the governor of the region in Russia on September 15. Saldo proposed to Lukashenka to give Belarus part of the occupied Ukrainian coast for the construction of sanatoriums. The Ukrainian MFA commented on the meeting between Lukashenka and Saldo. It reminded Lukashenka of the nihility of deals with occupation regimes. In Minsk, Saldo visited the JSC BelOMO. BelOMO produces optical devices, including military ones, such as sights. The company is under EU sanctions for cooperation with Russia in the defense sector.
- On September 16, Lukashenka signed a decree pardoning 25 people convicted, among other things, of “extremist crimes.” It is reported that all those pardoned “admitted their guilt and repented of their actions, and pledged to lead a law-abiding life.”
- On September 16, on the eve of the so-called Day of people’s unity, Lukashenka presented state awards to outstanding representatives of various fields. On September 17, 1939, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union divided Poland between themselves.
- On September 12, the day of the start of Zapad-2025, Lukashenka attended the final of the XIV National Beauty Contest "Miss Belarus 2025". The winners of the contest often become employees of the so-called protocol service of Lukashenka.
- Lukashenka’s MPs adopted in the second reading a bill on amendments to the Criminal Code, the Code of Administrative Offenses and a number of others. The bill proposes the introduction of criminal liability for the import into Belarus, storage, circulation, manufacture and operation of civilian UAVs and aircraft models in violation of the requirements of the law.
- Lukashenka’s Investigative Committee signed a cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Public Security of China.
- Industrial production decreased by 0.8% in January-August.
- Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Roman Golovchenko expects that inflation this year will be higher than the target parameter of 5 %. In August the year on year inflation rate was 7.2 %.
- Belarus' gross external debt as of July 1, 2025, was USD 37.7 billion. It increased by USD2.7 billion in the first half of 2025. External debt to GDP was 46%, unchanged from January 1, 2025.
International Dimension
- After a deal between Trump’s envoy Coale and Lukashenka on September 10, 52 prisoners, 38 of them - Belarusians, 14 - foreigners, 40 - political prisoners, were released. 51 people were forcibly deported to Lithuania, at least 10 of them without passports. Politician Mikalay Statkevich refused to leave to Lithuania and returned to Belarus. His whereabouts was unknown until September 15, when an independent media reported that he was again imprisoned. The prison refuses to provide information about Statkevich. Statkevich's wife filed a police report on his disappearance. The democratic forces appealed to American partners with a request to clarify the situation with Statkevich. During a meeting with selected people on September 12, Lukashenka stated that he believes that he will be able to normalize relations with the US. On September 11, Lukashenka’s press service published a video of his meeting with the American delegation. The Reform News media identified who was present at this meeting along with Trump’s envoy Coale.
- On Lukashenka's TV, his Permanent Representative to the UN Valentin Rybakov talked about a letter written by Lukashenka to U.S. President Trump. Speaking about the latest negotiations with representatives of the USA in Minsk, Rybakov noted that the U.S. delegation had experienced a pleasant shock. According to him, “they admired the president’s conversation manner.”
- The UN Group of Independent Experts on the situation of human rights in Belarus published a report, “Closing the accountability gap for human rights violations and related crimes in Belarus.” The report notes that the independence and impartiality of the Belarusian judiciary is undermined by the president’s role in appointing judges and prosecutors. It also points to the persecution of lawyers. The report lists ways in which human rights violations may be prosecuted outside Belarus. UN experts call for international accountability for human rights violations in Belarus. UTC deputy head Latushka called for doing everything possible to ensure justice to be carried out using the mechanisms described in the document (an international special tribunal, the ICC and universal jurisdiction).
- Lithuanian PM Inga Ruginienė said that Vilnius remains adamant on the issue of banning the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers. "If we do not go further and do not put pressure on sanctions and a tough approach to the aggressor, it will be bad. Perhaps the US will put pressure, but I think we are adamant here."
- Lukashenka’s Chargé d'Affaires to the United Nations Artem Tozik complained to the UN Security Council about Poland closing its border. In his opinion, this threatens stability in the region. He also responded to Poland's accusations regarding violation of its airspace.
- Before the meeting with the Chinese FM Wang Yi, the Polish FM Sikorski stated that he hopes for understanding from China that “our border region is suffering, that Poland has already spent half a billion euros on a large, beautiful fence on the border, which must be maintained by the Border Guard, plus the police and army. All this costs us money. Therefore, if the border should be opened, there must be peace on both sides.” At the meeting with Wang Yi on September 15, Sikorski drew attention to Russia's actions in Ukraine and on the border with Belarus, emphasizing China's role in maintaining peace and international security. Sikorski and Wang Yi did not make any statements following the meeting. Reportedly, this decision was made at the request of the Chinese side. The press secretary of the Polish MFA stated that the Polish side hopes that Moscow and Minsk will encounter opposition from China.
- After a meeting of Wang Yi with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, a press release about the meeting was published by the Chinese MFA. According to the press release, Poland expressed its readiness to strengthen contacts and deepen cooperation, "promote further development of bilateral relations and jointly protect peace and security throughout the world."
- On September 15, during the visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Poland, a meeting of the China-Poland Intergovernmental Cooperation Committee was held. “The parties held a comprehensive and in-depth exchange of views on bilateral relations, as well as international and regional issues of common interest,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry reported. In particular, the parties discussed the development of the Eurasian transport corridor and the key role of Poland in this process.
- On September 16, the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration issued a statement regarding the closure of the border with Belarus. The operation of the checkpoints has been suspended since midnight on Friday, September 12. The statement notes that although the closure of the borders is related to the exercise, the decision is not made for a specific period. Traffic will be restored after border security is fully restored, as soon as this is confirmed by information provided by the services.
- Lukashenka received Vladimir Orlovsky, Chairman of the State Customs Committee, on September 15 with a report. Welcoming him, Lukashenka pretended not to understand what was happening on the border with Poland.
- On September 15, the Latvian Saeima National Security Committee reviewed a draft resolution on the complete closure of the borders with Russia and Belarus in connection with the Zapad-2025 exercises and decided not to forward the draft to the Saeima for further consideration.
- After the closure of the border with Belarus by Poland, Lithuania allows cars with Belarusian license plates to return to Belarus through its crossings on the border with Belarus.
- Lithuanian border guards noted a decrease in migration pressure against the backdrop of "Zapad-2025".
- An Afghan, who had wounded a soldier on the border of Poland with Belarus, last year was detained in Poland.
- On September 15, Lithuania recorded 0 attempts of illegal border crossing, Latvia - 0, Poland - 114 on September 14.