Einzelpublikationen

Energy Rent as the Limit of Integration

According to a closed working report by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus prepared for the Council of Ministers, Minsk and Moscow have reached the final stage of agreeing a framework medium-term plan — the “Main Directions for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State” for 2027–2029. The final stage is likely to be difficult and will clearly demonstrate the limits of integration rapprochement.

Dzmitry Pantus and the Transformation of Belarus's Defence Industry

An overview of Dzmitry Pantus’s career and the transformation of Belarus’s defence industry under his leadership, including its growing integration with Russia, military modernisation, sanctions and international arms trade.

Russian “Deathonomics” and Belarus’s Economic Vulnerability

Policy Brief

How are Russia’s war economy, sanctions circumvention, and Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Moscow reshaping the region — and what policy options remain for the European Union and Belarusian democratic actors?

The essay “The USSR as Cradle and Grave” by Sviatlana Kurs (Eva Vežnavec)

Written in 2021 for a literary project of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the text is available to read and download in Belarusian and German.

Religion, Church and State in Belarus and Russia

Policy Brief

How do the regimes in Minsk and Moscow use religious institutions, and religious rhetoric for ideological mobilisation, political legitimisation, and external influence?

Belarus and Russia under war and sanctions: social attitudes for the EU and democratic forces

Policy Brief

How do societies in Belarus and Russia adapt to prolonged war, repression and economic pressure—and why does fatigue not translate into political change?

BELARUS AFTER A POTENTIAL PEACE SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE:

scenarios, risks and opportunities for the EU

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Belarus has become deeply embedded in the war's military, logistical and political infrastructure, despite not being a full-fledged participant. The war's future course, including the prospect of a peace settlement, will directly impact Belarus's military, political and economic reliance on Russia, its relations with the West and Ukraine, the sustainability of sanctions, the trajectory of the regime and its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy. This paper assumes that for Belarus, it is not only important whether the war continues, but also the regional environment that will emerge from any given outcome. Three potential paths that the war could take are introduced here, each of which would create qualitatively different conditions for Minsk.

THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA: A LABORATORY FOR THE CONSOLIDATION OF AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES

Policy Brief

How should we really understand the Union State — failed integration project or something far more consequential?