Publications

Energy Rent as the Limit of Integration

According to a closed working report by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus prepared for the Council of Ministers, Minsk and Moscow have reached the final stage of agreeing a framework medium-term plan — the “Main Directions for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State” for 2027–2029. The final stage is likely to be difficult and will clearly demonstrate the limits of integration rapprochement.

Dzmitry Pantus and the Transformation of Belarus's Defence Industry

An overview of Dzmitry Pantus’s career and the transformation of Belarus’s defence industry under his leadership, including its growing integration with Russia, military modernisation, sanctions and international arms trade.

Russian “Deathonomics” and Belarus’s Economic Vulnerability

Policy Brief

How are Russia’s war economy, sanctions circumvention, and Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Moscow reshaping the region — and what policy options remain for the European Union and Belarusian democratic actors?

The essay “The USSR as Cradle and Grave” by Sviatlana Kurs (Eva Vežnavec)

Written in 2021 for a literary project of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the text is available to read and download in Belarusian and German.

Religion, Church and State in Belarus and Russia

Policy Brief

How do the regimes in Minsk and Moscow use religious institutions, and religious rhetoric for ideological mobilisation, political legitimisation, and external influence?

Belarus and Russia under war and sanctions: social attitudes for the EU and democratic forces

Policy Brief

How do societies in Belarus and Russia adapt to prolonged war, repression and economic pressure—and why does fatigue not translate into political change?

Is an entry of Belarus into the war against Ukraine looming?

For weeks, Ukrainian President Zelensky has been warning that Russia is attempting to openly draw Belarus into the war.

Ukrainian intelligence services have reportedly registered the construction of roads leading toward the Ukrainian border as well as the preparation of artillery positions in Belarus. According to the Ukrainian side, Russia is considering offensive scenarios launched from Belarus toward Chernihiv and Kyiv. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the Russian General Staff is examining offensive operations from the north in order to stretch the front line. However, according to the prevailing assessment of independent Belarusian analysts, no troop movements have so far been observed that would clearly substantiate these scenarios. A direct Belarusian entry into the war remains rather unlikely. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense given the country’s close military alignment with Russia and its high degree of militarization. Most recently, Russia and Belarus conducted joint exercises with a nuclear dimension, thereby creating a clear posture of intimidation. On 25 May, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leading representative of the democratic Belarusian opposition, arrived in Kyiv — an important political signal from Ukraine that Ukrainian Belarusian relations are to be oriented more strongly toward the democratic opposition and distanced from dictator Lukashenka.

BELARUS AFTER A POTENTIAL PEACE SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE:

scenarios, risks and opportunities for the EU

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Belarus has become deeply embedded in the war's military, logistical and political infrastructure, despite not being a full-fledged participant. The war's future course, including the prospect of a peace settlement, will directly impact Belarus's military, political and economic reliance on Russia, its relations with the West and Ukraine, the sustainability of sanctions, the trajectory of the regime and its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy. This paper assumes that for Belarus, it is not only important whether the war continues, but also the regional environment that will emerge from any given outcome. Three potential paths that the war could take are introduced here, each of which would create qualitatively different conditions for Minsk.

THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA: A LABORATORY FOR THE CONSOLIDATION OF AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES

Policy Brief

How should we really understand the Union State — failed integration project or something far more consequential?

Update Belarus: “Release” of Political Prisoners — December 13, 2025

Newsletter of 16th December

Top news in the period under review: Following negotiations with Trump’s Special Envoy in Belarus Coale on December 12 and 13, the Belarusian ruler released 123 prisoners on December 13 to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. 114 were deported to Ukraine, including 104 Belarusians and  five Ukrainian citizens. The rest including the Belarusian Nobel Prize laureate Ales Bialatski were deported to Lithuania. Among the released are prominent human rights defenders and Viasna members Ales Bialiatski and Uladzimir Labkovich, as well as key opposition figures, such as Maryia Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka and lawyer Maksim Znak, co-chairman of the BCD party Paval Seviarynets.