Publications

Belarusian Yearbook 2026

The Belarusian Yearbook 2026 examines the events and developments of 2025, from the political system and the election to Belarus’s international relations, economy, media and social landscape

Coale’s Visit and the Release of Political Prisoners in Belarus

The September 2026 release of political prisoners in Belarus and visit to Minsk by President Trump’s Special Envoy for Belarus, John Coal, suggest that the Belarus-US channel remains one of the few functioning diplomatic tracks between Belarus and the West. More importantly, the negotiations reveal a shift from expectations of a broader strategic rapprochement towards a highly transactional model in which political prisoners, sanctions relief, financial assets and regional security considerations are increasingly treated as elements of a step-by-step bargaining process. Understanding the logic of this emerging “small reciprocal steps” framework is essential, as it offers an indication of both the opportunities and the hard limits of engagement with Minsk, the role of regional actors such as Lithuania and Latvia, and the prospects for further releases of political prisoners in the months ahead.

Alyaksandr Valfovich: Chief Inspector of the Security Vertical

The article argues that Alyaksandr Valfovich (Alexander Volfovich) has become a key coordinator of Belarus’s security state and a potential transition figure, trusted by both Lukashenka and the Kremlin. It particularly emphasizes that Moscow views him as a reliable, pro-Russian security official who could help ensure continuity of Belarus’s alliance with Russia and prevent political unpredictability in the event of a future transfer of power.

Energy Rent as the Limit of Integration

According to a closed working report by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus prepared for the Council of Ministers, Minsk and Moscow have reached the final stage of agreeing a framework medium-term plan — the “Main Directions for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State” for 2027–2029. The final stage is likely to be difficult and will clearly demonstrate the limits of integration rapprochement.

Dzmitry Pantus and the Transformation of Belarus's Defence Industry

An overview of Dzmitry Pantus’s career and the transformation of Belarus’s defence industry under his leadership, including its growing integration with Russia, military modernisation, sanctions and international arms trade.

Russian “Deathonomics” and Belarus’s Economic Vulnerability

Policy Brief

How are Russia’s war economy, sanctions circumvention, and Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Moscow reshaping the region — and what policy options remain for the European Union and Belarusian democratic actors?

The essay “The USSR as Cradle and Grave” by Sviatlana Kurs (Eva Vežnavec)

Written in 2021 for a literary project of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the text is available to read and download in Belarusian and German.

Religion, Church and State in Belarus and Russia

Policy Brief

How do the regimes in Minsk and Moscow use religious institutions, and religious rhetoric for ideological mobilisation, political legitimisation, and external influence?

Belarus and Russia under war and sanctions: social attitudes for the EU and democratic forces

Policy Brief

How do societies in Belarus and Russia adapt to prolonged war, repression and economic pressure—and why does fatigue not translate into political change?

Is an entry of Belarus into the war against Ukraine looming?

For weeks, Ukrainian President Zelensky has been warning that Russia is attempting to openly draw Belarus into the war.

Ukrainian intelligence services have reportedly registered the construction of roads leading toward the Ukrainian border as well as the preparation of artillery positions in Belarus. According to the Ukrainian side, Russia is considering offensive scenarios launched from Belarus toward Chernihiv and Kyiv. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the Russian General Staff is examining offensive operations from the north in order to stretch the front line. However, according to the prevailing assessment of independent Belarusian analysts, no troop movements have so far been observed that would clearly substantiate these scenarios. A direct Belarusian entry into the war remains rather unlikely. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense given the country’s close military alignment with Russia and its high degree of militarization. Most recently, Russia and Belarus conducted joint exercises with a nuclear dimension, thereby creating a clear posture of intimidation. On 25 May, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leading representative of the democratic Belarusian opposition, arrived in Kyiv — an important political signal from Ukraine that Ukrainian Belarusian relations are to be oriented more strongly toward the democratic opposition and distanced from dictator Lukashenka.