From Middle to Major Power

Eight decades of Pax Americana allowed countries like Canada to, sometimes, take Washington’s defence and economic umbrella for granted. However, today we face an inwardly focused United States – a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic – and, simultaneously, a rising and aggressive People’s Republic of China and a revanchist Russia. As a result, the rulesbased international order has come under increasing threat in this emerging multipolar era. It falls on countries such as Canada, Australia, and Germany to ensure this order endures. Designing a foreign policy that takes Canada from middle to an emerging major power requires coming to grips with the geopolitical shifts and key socio-economic and technological trends, including China’s rise and Russia’s resurgence, populism and economic nationalism, and authoritarian regimes’ use of digital technology to undermine our shared norms and values. For Canadian policy-makers, this means rethinking outdated Cold War era approaches. Ottawa needs bold ideas on how to navigate these new currents and not get swept away.