Russia and the Politics of Fear

Fear can become an instrument of political coercion. Airspace violations, incidents near borders and attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure create insecurity that can be exploited to weaken support for Ukraine and confidence in Moldova’s European path. In this policy paper, Daniel Vodă examines how this pressure affects Moldova, Romania, Poland and the Baltic states, while distinguishing clearly attributed Russian operations from the broader spillover effects of the war and cases where responsibility remains uncertain. The paper pays particular attention to Moldova’s preparedness for winter 2026–2027, including energy security, contingency planning for possible additional arrivals from Ukraine and the need to sustain solidarity between refugees and host communities. It argues that practical protection and credible public communication must work together through faster warnings, shared incident assessments, reliable essential services, prepared reception capacity and evidence-based communication. The central message: fear loses its political power when citizens can see that institutions are capable of protecting them. European integration becomes more credible when European cooperation delivers greater security in everyday life.