Single title

Public Opinion Poll June 2005

Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Umfrage Nr. 16

Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Poll No. 16

13 June 2005

PRESS RELEASE

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

DESPITE NEGATIVE EVALUATION OF PALESTINIAN CONDITIONS SINCE THE ELECTION OF ABU MAZIN, AND DESPITE THE CONTINUED RISE IN THE POPULARITY OF HAMAS, EXPECTED ELECTIONS’ OUTCOME GIVES FATEH 44% AND HAMAS 33% OF THE SEATS OF THE NEXT PLC

9-11 June 2005

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between June 9-11, 2005. Total size of the sample is 1320 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

  1. Public Evaluation of Palestinian Conditions since the Election of Abu Mazin

    • From among eight major areas of public concern, a majority believes that things have either stayed the same or became worse in six areas and improved in one area, while the public is divided in half over one other area. Conditions are the same or worse in the following areas: settlements, economic conditions, democracy and human rights, enforcement of law and order, fight against corruption, and internal relations among Palestinian factions. The only area in which progress is seen is the release of prisoners by Israel. The area in which the public is divided is related to occupation measures such as closures and checkpoints.
    • Overall, only 3% believe that things in general have improved a lot since the election of Abu Mazin while 45% believe that things improved a little, 39% believe things remained the same, and 12% believe that things have worsened.
    • Despite this negative assessment, 60% are satisfied and 35% are unsatisfied with Abu Mazin’s performance since his election.
    • 39% believe Abu Mazin’s latest visit to Washington has been beneficial to Palestinian interests while the rest is divided between those who think it has not been useful (30%), neither useful nor un-useful (17%), and those with no opinion (14%).
    • 44% are satisfied and 46% are not satisfied with Abu Mazin’s decision to postpone legislative elections.

  2. Increase in the Popularity of Hamas and Fateh

    • Findings show continued increase in the popularity of Hamas standing today at 30%, compared to 25% last March and 18% last December. Hamas’ popularity is greater in the Gaza Strip (35%) compared to the West Bank (27%).
    • Fateh’s popularity stands at 41% compared to 36% last March and 40% last December. Fateh’s popularity is the same in the Gaza Strip (41%) as in the West Bank (42%).

  3. Voting Intentions and Considerations in the Upcoming Legislative Elections

    • Findings show that the level of participation in the next legislative elections will be 77% and the outcome of those elections will be as follows: 44% for Fateh, 33% for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, 3% for the left, and 8% for independent lists. 12% are undecided.
    • If the contest is between two lists only, one for Fateh and headed by Marwan Barghouti and one for Hamas and headed by Mahmud Zahhar, 47% would vote for Fateh and 38% for Hamas. 15% would vote for neither list or do not know to whom they would give their vote.
    • The most important consideration in voting for individual candidates in the next legislative elections is going to be the integrity and lack of corruption of the candidate.
    • From among eight considerations in voting for election lists, number (1) is the ability to fight corruption, (2) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel, (3) ability to improve economic conditions, (4) ability to maintain national unity, (5) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations, (6) the name or affiliation of the list, (7) ability to enforce law and order, and finally (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada.
    • Fateh receives greater appreciation (compared to Hamas, left, or independent and new parties) for its ability to deliver on five of seven considerations while Hamas receives greater appreciation for its ability to deliver on two. Fateh is more able to improve the economy (46% for Fateh and 34% for Hamas), to reach a peace agreement with Israel (65% for Fateh and 22% for Hamas), to protect national unity (43% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas), to protect refugee rights (44% for Fateh and 36% for Hamas), and to enforce law and order (52% for Fateh and 32% for Hamas). Hamas is more able to fight corruption (47% for Hamas and 37% for Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (64% for Hamas and 23% for Fateh).
    • Major public concerns are organized in the following order of importance: (1) poverty and unemployment (34%), (2) occupation measures (33%), (3) corruption (24%), (4) internal anarchy and chaos (8%).
    • After legislative elections, the public would like to see the following order of priorities: (1) improve the economy, (2) fight corruption, (3) reach a peace agreement with Israel, (4) enforce law and order, and finally, (5) maintain national unity.
    • In an open question, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support to lead Fateh’s election list in the next legislative elections receiving the support of 14% of respondents followed by Mohammad Dahlan (5%), Ahmad Quarai and Farouq Qaddoumi (4% each), while 56% have not decided yet or do not know.
    • If presidential elections were held today, Abu Mazin, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (24%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (12%), and Mahmud Zahhar (8%). 36% have not decided or do not know.
    • In an open question regarding nomination for vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the largest percentage of support (11%), followed by Ahmad Quarai (5%), Mustafa Barghouti and Mohammad Dahlan (4% each), Mahmud Zahhar and Saeb Erikat (3% each), and Ismail Haniyyeh and Farouq Qaddoumi (2% each). 52% have not decided or do not know.
    • For the position of prime minister after the next legislative elections, Ahamd Qurai, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (9%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (7%), Mahmud Zahhar (5%), Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti (3% each). 56% have not decided or do not know.

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah.

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End of press release