Sudan's search for stability

Background to the current conflict

The situation in Sudan is tense. Currently, armed fighting is taking place between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum. The former allies are fighting over economic resources and, above all, power in the country. At worst, the conflict could take on a regional dimension and is also explosive because of the international entanglements. The country report sheds light on the events and background to the current situation in Sudan.

Berliner Libyen-Konferenz 2.0

Absichtserklärungen ohne Auswirkungen?

Am 23. Juni trafen auf Einladung der Bundesregierung und in Abstimmung mit den Vereinten Nationen Vertreter aus 16 Ländern und internationalen Organisationen zur Zweiten Berliner Libyen-Konferenz zusammen. Neben einer Bestandsaufnahme der erfolgten Schritte seit der ersten Libyen-Konferenz im Januar 2020 wurde in der Abschlusserklärung vor allem auf die Einhaltung freier Wahlen am 24. Dezember 2021 und den Abzug aller ausländischer Kämpfer und Söldner gepocht. Erstmals waren mit Interimsministerpräsident Dabeiba und Außenministerin Mangoush auch libysche Regierungsvertreter Teil der Konferenz. Obschon der Berliner Prozess wesentliche Fortschritte in Libyen ermöglichte, bleibt die Stabilität Libyens nach wie vor fragil.

Escaping the Blackbox – oder auch nicht?

Algerien nach den ersten Parlamentswahlen nach Bouteflika

Während die meisten Staaten Nordafrikas spätestens seit den Umbrüchen des sogenannten Arabischen Frühlings die Aufmerksamkeit Europas erhielten, ist das größte Land der Region weitgehend unbeobachtet geblieben. Doch auch in Algerien ist das politische Spielfeld in den letzten Jahren gehörig durcheinandergewirbelt worden. Nun wurde das algerische Parlament am 12. Juni – ein Jahr früher als geplant – neu gewählt. Was sind Trends und auf welche Szenarien sollten sich Europa und Deutschland einstellen?

Biden‘s Libya Policy

US government relies on diplomacy and multilateralism in Libya

Ten years after the start of upheavals in Libya, recent developments provide hope for a stabilization of the situation. Since October 2020, the guns have been silent in the civil war-torn North African country. And since February 2021, for the first time in almost seven years, the country has been ruled by an interim “Government of National Unity“, GNU. In the first hundred days of the Biden administration, a change of course in US foreign policy towards Libya has become visible. While the previous US government pursued a very passive and sometimes questionable Libya policy, the Biden Administration relies on the power of diplomacy and the cooperation with traditional partners like Germany. The promising multilateral approach seems to be back.

Libya's fateful year

Where does Libya stand one year after the Berlin Libya Conference?

2020 Libya set an important course for achieving (security-relevant) political and economic progress towards a sustainable political solution to the conflict that has been ongoing since 2011. The Berlin Conference on Libya convened by Chancellor Merkel on 19 January 2020 was a significant contribution on that way. Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled to take place in the North African country on 24 December 2021. The first weeks of this year will show whether this remains a realistic scenario. If the agreed deadline to withdraw all foreign fighters from Libya by 21 January is not met, Libya will once again start an uncertain and probably turbulent year.

Libya - Developments in the Shadow of Corona

Since May 2020, the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), with massive help from Turkey, has succeeded in breaking the siege of Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar and his militias, supported by Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, and regaining important territories. Both sides are massing troops along the new front line near Sirte. This may either lead to new military escalation of the conflict or split up the country into spheres of interest. In order to mitigate these scenarios, a joint European approach is urgently needed. This should include sanctioning the destructive role of external actors, strengthening the United Nations’ negotiating mission, supporting the revival of an internal political process in Libya and providing humanitarian aid to the country.

Fast and Furious: China's rise in the Middle East and North Africa

Traditionally, China has pursued a relatively restrained foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa. This has changed dramatically in recent years. Within a few years the country has positioned itself as a new global power in the region. On the one hand, this is due to China's interest in securing access to energy and resources, expanding trade routes and opening up markets for its own export products. But there's more to it than that. President Xi Jinping's declared goal is to make China the world's number one power by 2049 - the centenary of the People's Republic.

Libya Conference: A Success for German Diplomacy

The Berlin Libya Conference is a success for German diplomacy. For five months the German government has been working behind the scenes on the so-called Berlin process for Libya, which Chancellor Merkel announced in September 2019. The conference in Berlin was preceded by several meetings of senior officials from the participating states and regional organizations. All foreign powers interfering in the Libyan conflict were brought together and committed themselves to respect the UN arms embargo and to stop bringing mercenaries and arms into the country.

Libyen: Haftar in der Tripolis-Sackgasse

Während Kampfverbände des selbsternannten Feldmarschalls und de-facto Herrschers Ost-Libyens Khalifa Haftar vor den Toren der libyschen Hauptstadt Tripolis stehen, haben die Milizen im Westen des Landes unter der nationalen „Einheitsregierung“ (GNA) die Operation „Vulkan des Zorns“ zur Verteidigung der Hauptstadt ausgerufen. Haftar will mit seiner „libyschen Nationalarmee“ (LNA) die Macht in Tripolis und somit in ganz Libyen übernehmen. Dafür muss er alles auf eine Karte setzen.

Religion and Politics in North Africa

An Opinion poll on Religion and Politics in North Africa was conducted in cooperation with Sigma Conseil and the Arab Observatory of Religions and Freedoms in order to analyze attitutes in the north african societies regarding the interaction between politics and religion, and the perceptions of religious extremism.