Einzelpublikationen

WHY THE EU IS NOT MAKING A NEW WORLD

Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has asked questions of the European Union. For some, its relative invisibility during the early phase of the pandemic confirmed its irrelevance; for others, its relevance and necessity are more obvious than ever in an increasingly insecure world. The pandemic provides an opportune moment to assess the EU’s capacity to face security challenges in an emerging global order. The EU will need to adapt quickly if it is to retain its vigour and security.

COVID-19 AND NATO: NO GAME-CHANGER BUT ACCELERATION OF PREEXISTING TRENDS

Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

The full scale of the destructive effect that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought on virtually all aspects of life is not yet fully clear. However, it is evident that the pandemic already had profound consequences for international affairs in general and security policy more specifically. These developments, in turn, have also affected a cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Although infectious diseases are hardly a chief concern for the organisation, heads of the member states and senior decision-makers within NATO have underlined that the spread of COVID-19 at least bears indirect consequences for the alliance. In order to measure the effect of COVID-19 on NATO, the following analysis will first describe the status quo within NATO before the spread of the disease. Secondly, it will examine the direct effects the virus has had on NATO. Lastly, this analysis will look at the extent to which the virus has altered transformation processes in the political and security environments and thus has had an indirect effect on the alliance.

COVID-19 AND NATO: SHORT-TERM EFFECTS AND LONG-TERM CHALLENGES

Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

In a matter of only a few months the coronavirus pandemic became the dominating domestic policy driver for many countries and the primary shaper of international relations in its own right. It not only affected individual states, but also disrupted the operations of international organizations, integration blocs and military alliances. NATO is no exception. Involved in the fight against the pandemic, the Alliance also found itself faced with serious long-term challenges, which are not entirely new, but have become markedly more relevant in the new environment. So what is it that NATO gas already encountered during the pandemic and to which long-term challenges will the Alliance need to find answers?

CHINA AFTER COVID-19: NAVIGATING BETWEEN GREAT POWER RIVALRY AND INTERNATIONAL STABILITY

Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

When China marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic in October 2019, the role of the United States in the international arena had been thoroughly reshuffled by the presidency of Donald Trump. His open contempt of multilateral institutions and policies driven by narrow interests had left allies doubting if they could rely on US support in the event of a crisis. At the same time, China has become particularly active in defining its role in the world since President and Party Chairman Xi Jinping took over leadership in 2012. He shifted China’s ambitions into a higher gear by announcing that China must “take centre stage in the world.”

CHINA AND COVID-19: AMID GLOBAL PRESSURES AND REGIONAL AMBITIONS

Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the onset of an across-the-board, zero-sum confrontation between Washington and Beijing. This had already been preceded by the Trump administration’s trade war and open warnings surrounding Huawei’s 5G technology, the European Commission’s description of China as a “systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”, criticism of the Chinese regime’s increasing control over Hong Kong and its treatment of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang, and regional pushback against the perceived excesses of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Western countries’ hardening line toward China in recent months has left Beijing with likely the most unfavourable international environment it has faced since the Tiananmen incident of 1989.

Restoration of Russia and the new world order

Contribution of KAS Moscow to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

Over the past 20 years, the Russian government has managed to dodge the impending state collapse and leave behind the economic chaos of the 1990s. This reinstatement as a major power was achieved primarily through incremental but effective upgrade of the armed forces. However, there is still a critical dependency on raw material exports.

Strategic dilemmas facing Russia in the post-corona world

Expert Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

The disruptive nature of the pandemic for Russia and the post-Soviet space should not be overestimated. Yet, it has served as a stress test by aggravating many of the previously vexed issues and their implications, which go well beyond national agenda.

CHALLENGES AND SCENARIOS FOR US FOREIGN POLICY

Contribution to the series "The World HandCOV'd"

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is dangerous not so much because of the direct damage done to living cells, but because of the accompanying complications that it triggers. The overall health status of the affected body is what matters, alongside chronic diseases and susceptibilities. The impact of the pandemic on global politics is somewhat similar: the lockdown and economic disruption exacerbate the accumulated contradictions and problems. From this perspective, the pandemic hit the U.S. at a bad time in terms of both its domestic political landscape and the foreign policy it has adopted in recent years. The active yet chaotic and hazardous game with opponents and partners that Donald Trump picked as his strategy can bear fruit only in certain conditions. Achieving success requires a robust economy (in 2017–2019, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2%–3%), as well as readily available reserves, fast response capability, confidence and an image of success.