BELARUS AFTER A POTENTIAL PEACE SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE:

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Belarus has become deeply embedded in the war's military, logistical and political infrastructure, despite not being a full-fledged participant. The war's future course, including the prospect of a peace settlement, will directly impact Belarus's military, political and economic reliance on Russia, its relations with the West and Ukraine, the sustainability of sanctions, the trajectory of the regime and its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy. This paper assumes that for Belarus, it is not only important whether the war continues, but also the regional environment that will emerge from any given outcome. Three potential paths that the war could take are introduced here, each of which would create qualitatively different conditions for Minsk.