This policy brief explores public attitudes in Belarus and Russia amid war and sanctions, highlighting key differences in social adaptation, perceptions of the war, and prospects for democratic transformation. Based on an expert discussion with Belarusian and Russian specialists held in late April 2026, it shows that while discontent is growing, it is largely absorbed through private survival strategies rather than collective mobilisation.
The brief examines:
- anti-war sentiment and the role of sovereignty in Belarus,
- passive support and rising fatigue in Russia,
- the unintended effects of sanctions and isolation,
- and the risks of viewing Belarus solely through a Russia-focused lens.
It also offers practical policy recommendations for the EU, international partners, and democratic forces on how to maintain engagement, strengthen resilience, and prepare realistic transition scenarios.
Policy Brief in English