On September 19, Azerbaijan started a war against Nagorno-Karabakh with the purpose of fully occupying its territory, and ethnically cleansing the Armenian population of 120,000. This is Azerbaijan’s first full-scale attack on Nagorno-Karabakh since the 44-day war in 2020, or the third one since, if one counts the attacks on — and occupation of territories of — Armenia proper in May 2021, and September 2022. As a result of the trilateral statement signed between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan on November 9, 2020, Azerbaijan occupied most of Nagorno-Karabakh’s territory, while Armenia withdrew its armed forces from the area. As per the statement, Russia deployed peacekeeping forces in the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh that were not controlled by Azerbaijan.
During the recent aggression, Azerbaijan advanced in several directions and occupied further parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. Unlike the 2020 war, the Azerbaijani attacks were much harder to repel as the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh stood alone against Azerbaijan. After a day of military actions, the government of Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to start negotiations on the Azerbaijani agenda, although Baku repeatedly violated the new ceasefire agreement that was brokered by Russia on September 20, 2023. The Azerbaijani requirements include the dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Defence Army; the withdrawal and destruction of its heavy equipment; and negotiations on what it terms the “integration” of the Armenian population into the Azerbaijani state.[1] Azerbaijan has always denied Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination, which the region’s population expressed by declaring independence, and backing this up with a referendum in 1991. Moreover, the Azerbaijani government has clearly and repeatedly demonstrated that it rules out the possibility of peaceful co-existence with Armenia. It has done so by sponsoring hatred towards Armenia and Armenians as a nation; committing war crimes during all periods of the conflict; and systematically destroying Armenian cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh, Nakhijevan and elsewhere, even going so far as to desecrate Armenian cemeteries. The intensity of this is further demonstrated by the International Relations Committee of the Azerbaijani Parliament, which openly describes Armenians as “a cancerous tumour”.[2] In such a situation, independence has always been a guarantee of physical security for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, being left without armed forces and facing an incredibly high amount of pressure and existential threats from Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh was simply forced to adopt a document on dissolution of the republic from January 1, 2024[3].
As in previous rounds of escalation, Azerbaijan used force against the population and civilian infrastructure. The capital city of Stepanakert and other towns and villages were bombarded, leaving at least 200 people dead and 400 wounded (the count being as of September 20).[4] The Azerbaijani armed forces even hit the morgue’s ambulance during its attempt to transport bodies from the Martakert region to Stepanakert.[5] Azerbaijan has also captured civilians in the village of Taghavard, in the Martuni region.[6]
This latest attack has further intensified the humanitarian catastrophe that has been unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh since December 2022. For over nine months, Azerbaijan has blocked the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and thus the world, thereby denying 120,000 Armenians access to food, gas, and healthcare, while also paralysing transportation. Additionally, the aggression caused the failure of local mobile, internet and electricity networks, rendering communication very difficult, and at times impossible.[7] Many people are missing. Left without any security guarantees, people have massively started to leave for Armenia. As of September 28, at noon, more than 68.000 people have crossed the Hakari bridge and arrived in Armenia’s Syunik region.[8]
Not for the first time, the international community has failed to stop Azerbaijan’s genocidal policy. At the start of this new attack, the Russian peacekeeping forces — responsible for the security of Nagorno-Karabakh and its population — refused to use force. The Chairman of the Defence Committee of the Russian State Duma, Andrey Kartapolov stated that Russia’s peacekeeping forces can open fire only for self-defence purposes[9]. Meanwhile, the first Deputy Chairman of the same committee, Andrey Krasov argued that “[t]hese hostilities are an explosive situation that only benefits the West”.[10] No armed retaliation or diplomatic condemnation of the attack occurred — not even when Azerbaijani armed forces hit a vehicle of Russian peacekeeping forces, killing Russian servicemen.[11] A number of European and US officials deplored the aggression but refuse to take any measures against Azerbaijan.
