February 28, 2026 marked a strategic turning point with the targeted elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by Israel and the United States. Israel thus made the open transition from a containment strategy to an active regime change strategy in Iran. From the Israeli point of view, this was a necessary step to secure the national existence against Tehran's nuclear, missile and proxy threats. Iran, in turn, is provoking a regional war with unpredictable consequences through its counterattacks on Israel, the Arab states in the Gulf, US military bases, NATO member Turkey and other targets. Five possible scenarios should help to understand how things could go on and what impact the war could have on the Middle East, Europe and beyond.
In the first week of the war, Iran fired a total of more than 660 missiles and 1,900 drones at neighboring states and attacked a total of 11 countries.[1] The Gulf states were significantly more under fire than Israel: In the first days of the war, the Iranian regime fired 2.5 times more missiles and 20% more drones at its Arab neighbors than at Israel.[2] Since the first day of the war, however, the number of attacks on Israel has declined continuously. This is mainly due to the more than 10,000 air strikes by Israel and the USA and the targeted destruction of Iran's ballistic launch capabilities.[3]
More serious than the Iranian attacks are the increasing attacks by the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which bombs Israel with drones and missiles. An Israeli ground offensive in southern Lebanon has already begun.
Five scenarios
Against this background, the question arises as to how the situation will develop. The dynamics of the conflict, the large number of actors involved, and the different strategic objectives open up several conceivable development paths, each with different consequences. To better classify the situation, five conceivable scenarios are outlined. They do not serve to predict and do not cover all eventualities. Rather, they are intended as an analytical instrument to help systematically record the risks, opportunities and consequences of further development.
Scenario 1: The Iranian regime collapses
A collapse of Iran's central power – as a result of Israeli and US airstrikes, lack of resources and growing discontent in Iran – would create an abrupt power vacuum that could lead to civil war between rival ethnic and political groups. Israel, the USA and Arab states could prevent the return of a strong central power in Iran in the medium term through their support for various groups. The chaos in the country would trigger a massive refugee movement, primarily towards Turkey. This could quickly lead to a humanitarian crisis in the border area with Turkey and put considerable pressure on Europe and the UN. The end of the Iranian government would expand Israel's options for action vis-à-vis the other members of the "axis of resistance," such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza. In Iran, however, there is a risk that various groups could gain access to weapons and possibly nuclear material. Therefore, Israel and the US could use special forces to secure nuclear materials, which would be associated with significant risks. In Israel, the military success would strengthen the government of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who could bring forward the elections scheduled for October this year at the latest and benefit politically from them.
Scenario 2: A long-term war of attrition
If the Iranian regime holds out despite severe distress, a war of attrition will develop, marked by daily Iranian missile and drone attacks. Israel and the US would respond with precise strikes but avoid a ground war on Iranian territory. The regime in Tehran continues to militarize internally, and repression takes on completely new dimensions. The Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable, energy prices are rising worldwide, and supply chains are coming under pressure. The incentive for Iran to build a nuclear weapon would increase sharply. China and Russia are supporting Tehran diplomatically and technologically, while domestic political pressure is mounting in Israel and elections are being called as late as possible. In the USA, too, domestic political pressure on the president would grow. The continuation of the war by the USA is becoming increasingly uncertain.
Scenario 3: Escalation of the war
A further aggravation of the situation would arise if Iran expands its attacks. While the missile launch pads are increasingly being destroyed, Iran continues to have its army and the Revolutionary Guards, which could be used for attacks on neighboring states. In addition, Iran could extend the attacks with drones and short-range missiles to the Gulf states and provoke a direct counterattack. The Houthis could also retarget shipping in the Red Sea and attack container ships as fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon escalates. In view of the uncontrollable escalation, NATO could consider sending forces to the Turkish border. Israel is simultaneously conducting multi-front operations against terrorist groups in its vicinity and Iran. Worldwide, energy prices are reaching new record highs, maritime routes are becoming uncertain, and supply chains from Asia are coming under pressure. In the midst of this dynamic, Tehran will have a strong incentive to quickly develop a nuclear weapon. From an Israeli perspective, this would be the worst possible scenario.
Scenario 4: End of violence, not conflict
In this scenario, President Trump unilaterally declares victory and withdraws part of American troops. Militarily, the US is concentrating on protecting the Gulf states, which limits Israel's ability to continue fighting on its own. The Iranian regime remains in power, and a strategic change in Iranian policy seems unlikely. Although the violence ends for the time being, the conflict between Israel and the USA with Iran remains. The nature of the conflict is similar to that before the escalation in 2024. Iran is reorganizing its power structures and shifting the military conflict more to proxies such as Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and the Houthis. Mediation creates an informal ceasefire that curbs escalation without resolving the conflict. Energy prices would gradually stabilize, but sectarian tensions and asymmetric violence, especially by Iranian proxies, would remain. The Israeli government would not benefit from such a scenario and would delay new elections.
Scenario 5: A new process to resolve the conflict
In this scenario, a new government is established in Tehran that is interested in ending the violence and resolving the conflict. After Israel and the US eliminated the leadership of the regime in Iran, a group interested in negotiations and reconciliation prevailed. The US and other countries are trying to start a diplomatic process. The violence is decreasing, the lifting of sanctions is being promised, and in return Iran is ending its support for various proxies and handing over radioactive material to inspectors. Energy prices are stabilizing and global recession risks are receding, although political uncertainties remain. In the short term, the conflict remains frozen, but new communication and mediation channels could contribute to regional détente in the future. States in the region would begin to address the conflict in direct talks and to recognize each other. Hezbollah would withdraw from the Israeli border while the government in Lebanon discusses plans for disarmament. The Israeli government would benefit and gain popularity from changes within Iran and Lebanon.