Kosovo’s decarbonisation pathway to 2030 is defined by a structural contradiction between its existing lignite-based electricity system and its binding obligations under the Energy Community framework and the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans. The adoption of an economy-wide emissions ceiling of 8.95 MtCO2-eq by 2030, corresponding to a 16.3% reduction relative to 2016, establishes a fixed compliance threshold that requires systemic transformation rather than incremental efficiency gains. The transition is therefore not primarily driven by environmental considerations, but by regulatory alignment, energy security imperatives, and the economic consequences of integration into the European energy market.
The transition also carries important social and economic implications. The lignite sector represents a major source of employment and economic activity, and electricity affordability remains a critical policy consideration. Ensuring a gradual and managed transition that preserves energy security and protects vulnerable households will be essential for maintaining social and political stability.
This study identifies four priority policy areas required to enable Kosovo’s decarbonisation pathway. First, strengthening governance and emissions monitoring systems to enable carbon pricing readiness. Second, accelerating renewable energy deployment and implementing a sequenced lignite transition. Third, reducing structural electricity demand through heating sector reform and building efficiency improvements. Fourth, aligning Kosovo’s regulatory framework with European carbon pricing mechanisms to protect economic competitiveness and facilitate market integration.