Massive Palestinian support for going to the UN

Main Findings:

Findings of the third quarter of 2011 show that a semi consensus is evolving over the issue of seeking UN membership and recognition of Palestinian statehood despite the fact that a large majority believes that the step will lead to the suspension of American financial support and Israeli custom transfers and will lead to greater hardships on the ground with more Israeli checkpoints and settlement activities. Findings also show that the overwhelming majority of the public want the PA to exercise actual sovereignty throughout the entire West Bank and to insist on assuming control over the Allenby Crossing with Jordan even if such steps lead to a confrontation with the Israeli army and settlers. While findings show widespread opposition to return to an armed intifada, a majority supports, and wants to participate in, large scale peaceful demonstrations. Only 50% however expect Palestine to become a member of the UN this month.

Going to the UN:

• 83% support going to the UN Security Council to obtain recognition of Palestine as a state.
• Moreover, 74% believe that there is no point in returning to negotiations with Israel without acceptable terms of reference or without freezing settlement construction and that therefore president Abbas is right in seeking UN involvement.
• In response to the Palestinian decision to go to the UN, an overwhelming majority of 78% expects Israel to suspend transfer of custom funds to the PA or to suspend the transfer and take additional measures to make occupation harsher by setting more checkpoints and expanding settlement construction.
• Similarly, 64% expect the US to respond to the UN drive by suspending its financial contribution to the PA or by suspending the contribution and imposing political restrictions.
• 77% expect the US to use its veto power at the UNSC to prevent admission of Palestine to the UN but 58% believe that most European countries will recognize the new state of Palestine.
• 50% expect Palestine to become a UN member state this September and 43% do not expect that.
• After the UN recognition of Palestine as a state, 75% (76% in the West Bank and 71% in the Gaza Strip) want the PA to exercise sovereignty throughout the entire West Bank even if such a measure leads to a confrontation between the PA and the Israeli army and settlers.
• Similarly,73% (71% in the West Bank and 77% in the Gaza Strip) want the PA to assert Palestinian sovereignty over the Allenby crossing with Jordan even if such a step leads to the closure of the crossing
• Only 35% support a return to an armed intifada and 64% oppose it.
• By contrast, 61% support resort to popular, unarmed and non-violent resistance and 54% say they will participate in peaceful demonstrations that would seek to breach checkpoints and block roads used by Israeli army and settlers after the UN recognition of the state of Palestine

Domestic Conditions:

• 23% describe conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 50% describe them as bad or very bad. By contrast, 39% describe conditions in the West Bank as good or very good and 30% describe them as bad or very bad.
• 71% say there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West Bank while only 58% say there is corruption in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip.
• 65% say there is, or there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank and 30% say there is no such freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 48% say there is, or there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip while 38% say there is no such freedom in the Gaza Strip.
• Perception of safety and security stands at 68% in the West Bank and 65% in the Gaza Strip.

Presidency and Legislative Elections:

• If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 59% and Haniyeh 34% of the vote of those participating.
• If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 67% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 29% say they would vote for Hamas and 45% say they would vote for Fateh.

Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• The largest percentage (59%) believes that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital.

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 15-17 September 2011. The poll was conducted after the PLO declaration of its intention to seek membership in the UN. President Abbas announced the intention to go to the UNSC during data collection. This press release covers Palestinian attitudes regarding the UN issue, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the most serious problems confronting Palestinians today. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. This survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah.