Upheavals and Change in the Middle East and North Africa

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Stephen Downes / flickr / CC BY-NC 2.0 / creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/

Upheavals and Transformation in the Middle East and in North Africa

How Political and Social Transformations Change an Entire Region Over the Long-Term

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The Arab Awakening or Arab Spring has changed the geopolitical landscape.

Ban Ki-moon, former Secretary-General of the United Nations

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At a glance

Since the start of the Arab Spring in 2011, almost all states in the Middle East and North Africa have experienced radical political and social processes of change.
There was no sustainable democratisation of the region. Rather, geopolitical and identity-based conflicts broke out, which led to millions of refugees, radicalisation and political instability.
Yet, the change is not over everywhere. Social and economic transformations are taking place in many places. The royal dynasties, which are preparing their countries for a time after the energy transition, are now considered a driving force behind this.
The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung observes, analyses and supports ongoing transformation processes in the region through the work of its local country office and from its headquarters in Berlin.

Content

1. Temporary failure of the democracy movement

2. From the “will of the people” to modernisation from the top

3. Ongoing processes of transition

4. Our offers and projects on the topic

5. Publications, events and media contributions on the topic

Almost all countries in the Middle East and North Africa have experienced far-reaching social and political transformations over the past few years. Starting with the so-called Arab Spring that began with a wave of protests in the Tunisian hinterland in December 2011, and swiftly reached cities such as Tunis, Cairo or Damascus. The calls of the predominantly young protesters for “bread, freedom, dignity” on the Avenue Bourguiba in Tunis and the Tahrir Square in Cairo, resonated with large swatches of the Arabic world and led to widespread upheaval within the region. Within one-year, authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and in Yemen, who had ruled their countries for decades, were toppled.

Temporary failure of the democracy movement: freedom is scarcely worth anything without economic success

Swift democratisation and a spring-like blossoming of the region did not follow, however. Instead, it became clear that: without economic development, freedom has hardly any value at all. Hence, since a coup d’état in 2021, the region’s former democratic trailblazer, Tunisia, is a prime example of the temporary failure of democracy movements in the region.

Elsewhere, the outcome of the 2011 protests is bleaker still. There were many places where geopolitical and identity-based conflict lines erupted, protests were violently suppressed and frustration led to radicalisation and instability. Political violence and escalating conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Libya forced millions of people to flee to neighbouring countries and to Europe.

From the “will of the people” to modernisation from the top: royal dynasties as drivers of social transformation

Whereas the dictatorial sham democracies were still the epicentre of social protests in 2011, ten years later, the royal dynasties are major drivers of social transformation in the region. The “Saudi Vision 2030” initiated by Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, which has gradually opened a previously isolated country to investors, tourists and even its own society, is symbolic of many initiatives of Gulf monarchies that are preparing for a time following the energy transition.

Morocco’s development strategy looks similarly ambitious, and aims to comprehensively transform the North African country both socially and economically. Jordan, as the only Levantine monarchy, is focusing on cautious political reforms, which, however, are mainly being interpreted as “protest prevention”.

Ongoing processes of transition: the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is intensively monitoring and accompanying the process

The dispute between citizens in the Middle East and North Africa and their political elites about demands concerning a modern state and the future of their societies continues. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) accompanies this ongoing process of transformation via the work of its country offices in the region and from the headquarters in Berlin. In 2021, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung also used the ten-year anniversary of the “Arab Spring” as an occasion for the extensive appraisal of the manifold and protracted transition processes in the Middle East and North Africa.

The fundamental issues addressed here have lost none of their validity. Why did the “Arab Spring” fail in so many countries? Nevertheless, where can we see signs of democratic change? What future do young people wish for in the region today? How can participation and representation be organised in the societies of the region? Can Germany and Europe play a role here, too?

Our offers and projects on the topic

Selected website projects

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung regularly creates informative overview pages on selected problems and conflicts in the MENA region, where our experts will keep you up to date with current articles and assessments.

Protests in Iran

Darafsh / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0

The violent death of the 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman, Jina Mahsa Amin, caused by the brutality of the notorious morality police, has triggered a wave of indignation since mid-September 2022 that suddenly burst into widespread protests on the streets.

What began as a show of solidarity and a rejection of rigorous violence by the morality police quickly developed into a serious challenge for the Iranian regime owing to its spread to large parts of the county, and the emergence of calls for more rights and freedoms. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is observing the situation in Iran from the headquarters in Berlin and its country offices within the region, and provides information about current developments in the county on a dedicated page

Learn more about the protests in Iran.

The Conflict in Yemen

Ünbersichtskarte zu den Konfliktparteien im Jemen

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. (Stand: Juni 2020)

Despite attracting little public attention, a bloody civil and proxy war is raging in Yemen in the wake of a transition process initiated by the Arab Spring. The violent power struggle has led to a major humanitarian crisis in recent years, for which there is currently little hope of serious improvement. The problem and conflict situations are and continue to be complex. Nevertheless, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung endeavours to comprehensively analyse the conflict in Yemen, and to bring together experts and decision-makers from Germany and the region so as to seek political solutions.

Learn more about the conflict in Yemen

Podcasts

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung publishes podcast episodesdevoted to developments in the Middle East and North Africa at irregular intervals.

Berlin Mideast Podcast

With our regional podcast series “Berlin Mideast Podcast”, we examine and analyse at irregular intervals the current situation and important developments in the Near and Middle East. Here, we place a special focus on issues such as the position of women in the Islamic world, or the role of Arab armies in the region’s political systems. Of course, we also consider the situational advancements and set-backs more than one decade since the onset of the “Arab Spring”.

Learn more about the Berlin Mideast Podcast

Virtual art exhibition

With a virtual art exhibition, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung together with its partner, the “I have Learned Academy”, has created a platform for artists from the Middle East and North Africa to present works focusing on problems and challenges in their region.

Arts and Politics

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

“Arts and Politics” is a virtual art exhibition that approaches current societal trends in the Middle East and North Africa via installations, graffiti and videos. Artists from Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Tunisia use their work to portray the challenges of their home countries.

Learn more about “Arts and Politics”

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Contact

Dr. Canan Atilgan

Head of the Department Middle East and North Africa

canan.atilgan@kas.de +49 30 26996-3201

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Wana News Agency

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Für die Sehnsucht nach einem normalen Leben

October 17, 2022

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Intervention without a Goal

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February 8, 2022

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Ten Years After the “Arab Spring” – What Does the Region Think Today?

A Survey of Public Opinion in the Middle East and North Africa

July 5, 2021

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Ten Years “Arab Spring”: A Sobering Result – Reforms Are Frozen

Dr Canan Atilgan, Head of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s Department for Middle East and North Africa assesses the Arab Spring ten years on in a guest article on Focus-Online.