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Public Opinion Poll for Presidential Elections

Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Poll No. 15

One Week Before Palestinian Presidential Elections: 65% for Mahmud Abbas and 22% for Mustafa Barghouti

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on Thursday and Friday 30 and 31 December 2004. Total size of the sample is 1319 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3% and rejection rate 2%.

  • Among those planning to participate in the presidential elections, 65% say they will vote for Mahmud Abbas, 22% for Mustafa Barghouti, 5% for all other candidates combined, and 8% remain undecided.

  • Popularity of Mahmud Abbas increases in the Gaza Strip (70%) compared to the West Bank (62%), among men (68%) compared to women (62%), among supporters of Fateh (84%) compared to supporters of Hamas and the PFLP (51% and 24% respectively), among the illiterates (75%) compared to those with BA degree (64%), among employees, craftsmen, laborers and the unemployed (76%, 73%, 69% and 69% respectively) compared to students (53%), among those working in the public sector (75%) compared to those working in the private sector (66%), and among the married (67%) compared to the unmarried (59%). Popularity of Mustafa Barghouti increases in the West Bank (24%) compared to the Gaza Strip (19%), in cities (26%) compared to villages and refugee camps (20% and 19% respectively), among women (25%) compared to men (19%), and among supporters of the PFLP (65%) compared to supporters of Fateh and Hamas (10% and 32% respectively).

  • A majority of 71% believe that Mahmud Abbas is the most able among all candidates to reach a peace agreement with Israel; 61% believe he is the most able to improve economic conditions; 60% believe he is the most able to enforce law and order; 50% believe he is the most able to protect national unity; 42% believe he is the most able to protect the right of return; and 26% believe he is the most able to keep the armed intifada going.
  • If Marwan Barghouti nominated himself, 38% of the public say they would have voted for him (34% of Abbas’ voters and 54% of Mustafa Barghouti’s voters say they would have voted for Marwan Barghouti). If Marwan Barghouti was a candidate, the voting results, based on current intentions, would therefore have been as follows: 43% for Marwan Barghouti, 39% for Mahmud Abbas, 9% for Mustafa Barghouti, 3% for all other candidates combined, and 7% are undecided.
  • If the choice in these elections were between Mahmud Zahhar (of Hamas), Marwan Barghouti, and Mahmud Abbas, public opinion would be divided as follows: 37% for Abbas, 29% for Marwan Barghouti, and 19% for Zahhar.
  • 49% support and 49% oppose the views of Mahmud Abbas calling for an end to the militarization of the intifada and cessation of the use of arms.

  • Support for Fateh reaches 41%, Hamas 20%, and nonaffiliated 28%. The combined total for all Islamists (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and independent Islamists) reaches 26%. Support for Hamas increases in the Gaza Strip to 28% and decreases in the West Bank to 15%.
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