Main Findings:

Findings of the second quarter of 2013 show that a majority of the public supports the appointment of Rami Al Hamdallah as prime minister and that two thirds support the resignation of Salam Fayyad. Despite this, half of the public agrees with the view attributed to Fayyad that the Palestinian leadership has been a failed one from the beginnings. Indeed, less than a third of the public believes that the Palestinian Authority (PA), with its two parts in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, is an accomplishment for the Palestinian people while 40% believe that the PA is a burden on the Palestinian people. There is no doubt that the deteriorating economic conditions in the West Bank, the pessimism about the chances for reconciliation, and the continued deadlock in the political process negatively affect public assessment of the PA and the Palestinian leadership. Findings also indicate a rise in Hamas’ popularity and that of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip only with support for Hamas and Fatah very close and with Haniyeh winning over Abbas by five percentage points. In the West Bank, however, Fatah remains more popular than Hamas, with 17 percentage point difference and Abbas against Haniyeh with 13 percentage point difference.

Findings also indicate that optimism about reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas is in decline and that the belief that the current split is permanent or will stay for a long time is on the rise. A majority believes that the chances for reconciliation are non-existent as long as freedom is denied to supporters of Fatah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively, as long as no date is set for national elections, as long as security coordination with Israel continues, and as long as Hamas refuses to accept agreements signed between the PLO and Israel.

Finally, findings show that a clear majority supports the Abbas-Abdullah Holy Places Agreement, signed on 31 March 2013, which recognizes Kind Abdullah’s custodianship over al Haram al Sharif in East Jerusalem. But only a slightly less than a third supports an immediate confederation with Jordan while one quarter support such confederation later after the ending of occupation. The largest percentage opposes a confederation with Jordan, now or in the future.

Presidential and Legislative Elections:

• If new presidential elections are held today and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 49% and Haniyeh 44% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such elections would reach 64%. Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 52% and Haniyeh 41%. In this poll, in the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 46% and Haniyeh 51% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 51% and Haniyeh 38%.
• If presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 57% and the latter would receive 36% of the participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 72%. In our March poll Barghouti received 60% of the vote and Haniyeh 33%.
• If presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti would receive the largest percentage (35%) followed by Haniyeh (33%), and Abbas (27%). The rate of participation in this case would reach 76%. In our previous poll last March, Barghouti received 38%, Haniyeh 31%, and Abbas 26%.
• If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 30% say they would vote for Hamas and 41% say they would vote for Fatah, 9% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 21% are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 38% and in the West Bank at 24%. Vote for Fatah in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 41% and in the West Bank at 41%. These results are similar to those obtained three months ago with the exception of the vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip which stood at 33% at that time.

Domestic Conditions:

• Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises from 32% three months ago to 36% in this poll while 38% say conditions are bad or very bad.
• Positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank rises slightly from 29% three months ago to 31% in this poll while 37% say conditions are bad or very bad.
• Perception of corruption in PA institutions in the West Bank stands at 77% in this poll. Perception of corruption in the public institutions of Hamas’ Gaza government stands at 61%.
• 22% say there is, and 45% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 19% say there is, and 34% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip.
• 32% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, 23% of the public say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear.
• Perception of safety and security in the West Bank stands at 56% and in the Gaza Strip at 64%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 67% in the Gaza Strip and 54% in the West Bank.
• Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to other countries stands at 42%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 27%. Last March these percentages stood at 49% and 27% respectively.
• Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government stands at 41%.
• Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas remains unchanged at 49%. Dissatisfaction with the president performance stands today at 48%.
• Two thirds support and 24% oppose the resignation of Salam Fayyad as prime minister.
• By contrast, 59% support the appointment of Rami Al Hamdallah as prime minister; 21% oppose the appointment and 20% expressed no opinion.
• 49% agree with a statement attributed to Salam Fayyad that the Palestinian leadership from the beginning has been a failed one and 47% disagree with the statement.

Reconciliation:

• Given the ups and downs in the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation dialogue, percentage of optimism about the chances for reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip stands at 17%. The belief that unity is impossible and that two separate entities will emerge increases from 33% three months ago to 36% in this poll. 44% believe that unity will be restored but only after a long time.
• 34% say that ending the split requires regime change in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 13% say it requires regime change in the Gaza Strip only and an identical percentage believes that it requires regime change in the West Bank. Only 34% say that restoring unity does not require regime change in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip.
• We asked respondents about conditions under which they believe reconciliation cannot succeed. Three quarters believe that reconciliation will not succeed without first ending the restrictions on freedoms enjoyed by supporters of Hamas in the West Bank and a similar percentage (74%) believes that it will not succeed without ending restrictions on freedoms enjoyed by supporters of Fatah in the Gaza Strip. Similarly, 66% say it will not succeed without first agreeing on an election date; 59% say it will not succeed if Hamas continues to reject agreements signed by the PLO with Israel; 61% say it will not succeed if security coordination with Israel in the West Bank continues; another 60% say it will not succeed if the PA continues to recognize Israel and the Oslo agreements; and 50% say it will not succeed as along as Hamas insists on keeping its al Qassam armed wing in the Gaza Strip.
• The largest percentage (40%) believes that the PA, with its parts in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, has become a burden on the Palestinian people and 30% believe that it is an accomplishment for the Palestinian people. Furthermore, 12% believe that the PA in the West Bank is an accomplishment while the PA in the Gaza Strip is a burden. By contrast, an identical percentage (12%) believes that the PA in the Gaza Strip is an accomplishment while the PA in the West Bank is a burden.
• 28% say that the election of Khalid Mishaal as head of Hamas for a new term will speed up the process of reconciliation while 22% say it will slow it down. 42% say it will have no impact on reconciliation.

Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 42% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 34% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 10% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians. Three months ago, 46% said ending occupation and building a state was most vital goal and 31% said the most vital goal was the right of return.
• The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 29% of the public while 23% say it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, 22% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities, 18% believe the most serious problem is corruption in some public institutions, and 7% believe it is the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings.

Holy Places Agreement and relations with Jordan:

• 58% support and 41% oppose the Holy Places agreement signed between Kind Abdullah of Jordan the Mahmud Abbas in which the Palestinian side acknowledges the King’s custodianship over al Haram al Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) in Jerusalem.
• But 40% say they oppose a confederation with Jordan now and in the future while 31% say they support a confederation with Jordan now and 24% say they support a confederation with Jordan but only after the ending of Israeli occupation.

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-15 June 2013. The period before the poll witnessed the resignation of the government of Salam Fayyad and the appointment of a new government headed by Rami Al Hamdallah, President of Al Najah University. The period also witnessed the re-election of Khalid Mishaal as head of Hamas’s political bureau for a new term and the postponement of the formation of a reconciliation government. This press release covers public evaluation of the general West Bank and Gaza conditions, elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh, public satisfaction with the performance of President Mahmud Abbas, the internal balance of power between Fatah and Hamas, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

This survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Ramallah.