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Event Reports

Libya's Endless Crisis?

Recent developments and coming scenarios

The Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in cooperation with Stractegia brought together four distinguished Libya experts in an online seminar, which took place on July 20 in a closed setting with about 40 participants. The experts exchanged their views and discussed with the participants about previous mediation efforts, the political and military perspectives, an outlook on the economy and especially the oil sector, as well as the role of tribes and key social figures in the Libyan scenario.

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The situation in Libya and its underlying problems are multifaceted - but there are three main causes that we can identify: the absence of strong and sovereign state institutions; rivalries and fights over power at the national level; and foreign interference and its heavy consequences. The Libyan war won’t last forever; but as of today, there are no concrete prospects for conflict-resolution at sight. But no conflict lasts endlessly: there will be a day when Libyans turn the page and put peace prospects on the top of their agenda.


Peace does not come alone: it needs drivers and active promoters. In Libya, the absence of strong state institutions gave room to the emergence of different entities; but these political bodies prevail next to other fields and dynamics that are equally important: tribes, militias, military leaders, businessmen and key economic actors, all have a potential contribution to peace. And some of these happen to be key and determinant at the time of moving forward.


Online Seminar

The respective speakers stressed that a solution to the Libyan crisis may be achievable if some key conditions are established. In particular, the limitation of foreign military interference and the introduction of concrete peace initiatives, such as the establishment of a buffer zone in Libya. The polarization of the conflict parties requires considerable political efforts by the various actors to support mediation and reconciliation. The fault lines in Libya are not only to be seen along the conflict parties, but also extend to the institutional division and fragmentation that makes a large part of the public administration inefficient with serious consequences for everyday life and especially the economic situation. While oil and gas revenues could be a promising feature for future developments, natural resource management needs to be reconciled with a political agenda and a mediation strategy. While the many tribes are powerful social structures that must be taken into account in some way in the future, one should not forget to consider other key social figures and to look at the social fabric in Libya with a demographic view, where youth is, as is so often the case, a key factor for social stability.



Welcoming Words

Thomas Volk, Director, Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung


Introduction & Moderation

Barah Mikail, Founder, Stractegia


What did we learn from mediations?

Omeyya Naoufel Seddik, Special Advisor for MENA Region, Center for Humanitarian Dialogue


Political & Military Perspectives

Emadeddine Badi, Independent Consultant and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council


Economy & the Oil Sector

Tarek Megerisi, Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations


Tribes & Key Social Figures

Amal Obeidi, Associate Professor, University of Benghazi



The Online Seminar will be followed by an intra-Libyan dialogue format in Tunis soon.

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Dr. Thomas Volk


Director KAS office Israel


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