Syria is no longer under Assad’s rule, but it is far from peaceful. The capital, Damascus, is now controlled by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group is struggling to bring the rest of the country under its authority. Armed factions in the Kurdish, Druze, and southern regions continue to hold their ground. They refuse to disarm or follow HTS’s lead.
At the same time, foreign powers like Türkiye, Israel, the United States, and Russia are taking advantage of Syria’s divisions. Their involvement makes it harder for the country to rebuild and regain control over its own future.
Rather than a decisive transition, Syria is witnessing a “balance of weakness” where no actor is strong enough to consolidate power, yet all are powerful enough to resist. The paper argues that Syria needs two things to break this cycle. First, it must create a political system that includes all communities. Second, it must reduce foreign interference by restoring its national independence.
