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PERISCOPE - Occasional Analysis Brief Series

PERISCOPE -Occasional Analysis Brief Vol. 20 2026: The Limits of Democracy in Tonga Exposed in the Aftermath of the 2025 Election

by Prof. Jon Fraenkel, Lopeti Senituli

Occasional Analysis Brief Series

'Periscope' is the Occasional Analysis Paper/Brief series of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Regional Programme Australia and the Pacific. Just like the real-world sighting instrument, Periscope is meant as a lens to broaden our insights - taking in views from different angles. This way, it seeks to bring together perspectives from Germany, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific region to augment our understanding of contemporary issues and help address the pressing problems of our time. The Periscope Series covers topics from the area of foreign and security policy, cybersecurity, terrorism/counter-terrorism, energy policy, rule of law, socio-economic matters and development policy. It comprises both longer Analysis Papers– in the form of single-author (and co-authored) contributions or edited volumes with multiple authors - and shorter Analysis Briefs.

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In November 2025, Tonga witnessed its fifth election since sweeping reforms

introduced a majority popularly elected parliament and, ostensibly, ended the King’s control over the selection of government.


Yet in the wake of that election, the new Prime Minister is a noble, the former Speaker Lord Fakafanua, who on 15 December 2025 defeated the outgoing incumbent, ‘Aisake Eke, by 16 votes to 10. That outcome is, in one sense, a sign of the enduring powers of the nobility, despite the democratic reforms of 2010. More importantly, it signals a further step in the reassertion of monarchic authority by King Tupou VI, after a troubled 2021-25 term of parliament during which key areas of government – defence and foreign affairs – were wrestled back from the control of elected representatives. The limits of the reforms of 2010 have now been starkly exposed.
 

Tonga went to the polls on 20 November 2025 to re-elect its 26-member legislative assembly. The country has 149 islands spread across a total exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of around 700,000 square kilometres. Three-quarters of its 100,000 people live on the main island of Tongatapu, where the capital Nuku’alofa is located.

 

About the Author

Prof. Jon Fraenkel

Jon Fraenkel is a Professor of Comparative Politics in the School of History, Philosophy, Political Science and International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington. He has published extensively on the politics of Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Tonga, Samoa and Papua New Guinea.

 

Lopeti Senituli

Lopeti Senituli is a Law Practitioner in Tonga and former Political Advisor to two Tongan Prime Ministers, Dr. Fred Vaka’uta Sevele and Samiuela ‘Akilisi Pohiva. He was founding Director of the office of the Tonga Human Rights and Democracy Movement (2000–2003). Prior to that, he was Director of the Pacific Concerns Resource Centre Inc, the secretariat of the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific Movement (NFIP), based in Auckland, Aotearoa/New Zealand (1987–1993) and Suva, Fiji (1993–2000). He has also served the Tongan government in various capacities including CEO of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (2012–2015). He served as representative of the Pacific Conference of Churches (PCC) to the Churches Commission on International Affairs of the World Council of Churches (WCC-CCIA) in Geneva (1999–2006). He was appointed as the representative from the Polynesia region to the Pacific Islands Forum - Specialist Sub-Committee on Regionalism (PIF-SSCR) (2015–2018) and has been a member of the International Advisory Committee of the Diplomacy Training Program (DTP) of the University of New South Wales-Law School since 1994. He is a former President of the Tonga Law Society.

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Contact

Eva Wagner

Eva Wagner
Senior Policy Adviser Governance and Rule of Law
eva.wagner@kas.de +61 2 6154 9323

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