Introducing a new agenda for inquiry
The proliferation of anti-democratic ideas and violence constitutes a new landmark in the evolving terrorism/extremism landscape. Under the guise of democratic dissent, anti-government protests are becoming a vehicle for increasing polarization and extremist activism as a prolonged ‘state of exception’ allows for the frustrations and anger of citizens to be steered around the interests of the far-right. This includes the strategic instrumentalization of conspiracy and anti-democracy narratives, made possible by the easy flow of transnational digital networks and amplified by adverse state actors. Particular concerns are that ‘ordinary citizens’ instigate and commit violent acts in the belief they are acting in the ‘defence of democracy’.
These evolving dynamics invite us to examine existing theories and practices, raising important questions about root causes, escalation mechanisms, as well as the nature and extent of the threat emanating from them. Due to the similar challenges Germany and Australia are facing as liberal democracies, manifest in increasing linkages between protest movements, they lend themselves to a comparative perspective.
While Germany’s historic experience with National Socialism, where domestic politics were radicalized from within, is certainly unique, recent developments make it an illustrative case study for how the COVID-19 crisis has impacted existing extremism dynamics and galvanized anti-democratic forces across the ideological spectrum. Nationwide anti-lockdown rallies since March 2020 have provided a platform for various forms of anti-government activism to turn into extremism as existing and emerging trends converged: the QAnon ideology found its largest following outside the US in Germany, blending with existing conspiracy myths and esoteric practices, many of them anti-Semitic in nature.
Tracing the trajectory of an increasing acceptance of extremist ideas and associated rejection of the existing political system can be instructive for other democratic countries facing similar challenges. This comes against the backdrop of Australian terrorism researchers long urging for a better understanding of, and, in many cases even the recognition of what pertains to the extremist spectrum - in terms of security challenges as well as harms to democracy.
Waves are a popular conceptual tool in terrorism research, used as lens to capture the nature and evolution of ideas and movements. A classic of the terrorism literature, Rapoport’s ‘Four Waves of Modern Terrorism’ for example, categorizes terror phenomena/groups as pertaining to distinct and successive historical periods, each marked by shared characteristics in terms of their ideology (doctrines/theology), organization/operational mode and strategy/tactics.4 Some experts query whether recent developments point to the formation of a new, fifth wave of anti-system, anti-globalist resistance, driven by networked communication technologies; or alternatively, if we are seeing a new iteration of a right-wing extremist wave.
Others have suggested that the current threat landscape is better captured by an understanding of co-existing, overlapping phenomena or ‘strains’ rather than neatly delineated, separate consecutive waves. For a nuanced understanding of the landscape, a critical engagement with existing and emerging concepts, definitions and theories is needed. This entails a recognition that seemingly new iterations of extremism – manifested in attacks or events many didn’t see coming (US Capitol siege), or groups that appear to spring up out of nowhere - may not be so new after all but have been simmering along under the surface.
The ‘WAVE’ concept hence invites us to focus on the dynamic nature of the landscape before us: fluidity between ideologies, the blurring of boundaries, between traditional left-right markers as well as the so-called mainstream and fringes; movements take precedence over organizational structures, including the transnational networks, local nodes and ideas that propel them.
A forward-looking agenda for inquiry could include questions such as:
- What evolving narratives, themes, subcultural expressions can we observe across the spectrum of extremist/terrorist groups?
- What is the significance of cross-ideological coalitions and loose alliances in regard to mobilization?
- Are ideological fusions manifesting in tangible changes, such as new groups forming out of coalescing anti-establishment currents?
- Can we observe a noticeable shift towards a post-organizational paradigm - beyond hitherto known organizational structures/operational modes and established indicators?
- Do we need a more differentiated understanding of the relationship between ‘online and offline’ spaces that draws a connection between online activity and real-world harms?
More than tending to theoretical and conceptual considerations, the interrogatory lens of a ‘A NEW WAVE?’ aims to address policy-related problems and questions. Its premise is that new frameworks for analyzing and understanding the threats to society are needed to improve strategic-policy discourse and decision-making. As ASIO’s Deputy General said in his 2021 Annual Threat Assessment, to counter the evolving threat environment, thinking outside the box is needed.
Using Germany as a case study, this Brief hence serves as the introduction to the Analysis Paper Series. It contextualizes the research theme and seeks to provide a broad framework of inquiry for subsequent research endeavours, seminars, and publications.
