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Myanmar three years after the coup: where is the country heading?

A landmark year for Myanmar - new dynamics, alliances and scenarios for a "post-war state"

February 1 marks the third anniversary of the military coup (Tatmadaw) against the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Peaceful protests in the country continue to be bloodily suppressed and the humanitarian situation is catastrophic. Refugee movements, particularly to Thailand and India, and fighting on the Chinese border are turning the conflict in Myanmar into a supra-regional risk that the ASEAN community has so far done little to counter. Armed resistance has formed in large parts with the People's Defense Force. Since October last year, this has been supported by a number of powerful, highly armed ethnic organizations in the west, north and northeast of the country. The military appears vulnerable for the first time. Debates about a "post-junta" state are gaining momentum, although the ideas of the actors involved in the struggle (democratization vs. expansion of territorial claims) could not be more different. Myanmar is facing a landmark year full of dynamics.

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What is it about?

On February 1, 2021, the military staged a coup in Myanmar against the democratically elected government of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), whose party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won a landslide victory in the November 2020 election. On the day of the constituent session of the newly elected parliament, State Counselor ASSK, State President Win Myint and other high-ranking parliamentarians were arrested, a state of emergency was declared and the internet was shut down. ASSK has since been sentenced to more than thirty years in prison for various alleged offenses; the sentence was partially - but not seriously - reduced in early August 2023. It is clear that Myanmar's generals want to influence relations with the outside world - or at least with ASEAN - through ASSK. As the daughter of Aung San, the "Father of the Nation", ASSK, also known as the "Lady", stands for the democratic awakening in Myanmar like no other person and has been responsible for Myanmar's civilian government affairs since 2015/16 as a State Counsellor - a position created especially for her due to the restrictive constitution of 2008.

 

The full-length publication is only available in German.

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Contact

Andreas Michael Klein

Andreas Michael Klein

Director Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia

andreas.klein@kas.de +65 6603 6162

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