Publications

Konstantin Rintelmann

Die Protestkultur im Libanon

Libanons Sonderweg seit dem Ausbruch des Arabischen Frühlings

Während sich ab Ende 2010 in seinen Nachbarländern der Reihe nach Massenproteste anbahnten, die zum Teil auch schnell eine gewaltsame Dimension annahmen, blieb es im Libanon verhältnismäßig ruhig. Über das Jahr 2011 hinweg kam es lediglich vereinzelt zu kleineren Protesten, die in ihrem Versuch, auf der Grundlage einer nationalen, konfessionsübergreifenden Kampagne politischen Druck gegenüber der Regierung aufzubauen, eher homogen in Bildungsstand und Herkunft blieben. Zu einer landesweiten und inklusiven Massenmobilisierung sollte es im Libanon erst 2019 kommen.

MODEL OF LEBANESE-ARMENIANS

The “MODEL OF LEBANESE-ARMENIANS” written by Yeghia Tashjian analyses the impact of the communitarian approach as a way for Re-discovering Armenian Nationalism, responding to socio-economic crisis and rendering a consolidated communitarian response front vis a vis challenges. Download the article to learn more about it.

Breaking the Bank: Alternative Pathways to Lebanons Broken Banking Sector

In the absence of relevant legislation, informal capital controls and the currency crisis, Lebanese small and medium depositors are not only confronted by a harsh devaluation of their savings, but also enormous challenges to gain access to their deposits. Are there alternative options for the Lebanese to store value, preserve wealth and run Lebanon’s finances? Investing in physical assets can be unsustainable; vulnerable to theft and unexpected market collapse, the trend for luxury cars and real estate is likely to be short-lived. In our latest policy paper authored by our partner Triangle, we explore the option of credit unions and other types of financial cooperatives. These could have the power to diversify Lebanon’s homogeneous banking sector. This, in turn, could serve Lebanon well in the rocky years ahead: research shows that when banks do poorly, credit unions often do much better.

The Lebanon Chronicles

The Lebanon Chronicles is an independent platform for captivating, innovative journalism from Lebanon authored by young Lebanese journalists.

Going Hungry: The Empty Plates and Pockets of Lebanon

The Fight to Prevent Hunger amidst Pandemic and Recession

The deadly, mysterious COVID-19 pandemic has joined forces with the worst economic recession in decades to send food prices skyrocketing and household incomes nosediving. The result: almost half of the population struggles to put the most basic foods on their tables. In collaboration with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Triangle is publishing the first policy paper in a series "Pandemic Papers" following the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper critiques Lebanon’s complacent attitude to food security and proposes ways to uphold the old Lebanese adage that “nobody ever dies from hunger.”

reuters

One crisis too many

State bankruptcy and COVID-19 combine to form a toxic catalyst in Lebanon

For the first time in its history, Lebanon has defaulted - and loses its spotless record of its crisis-resistant solvency. The banking system, a pillar of the Lebanese economy, has begun to totter since the nationwide protests of October 17. The ailing economic system was dragged along for years and kept alive by highly irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. The COVID-19 outbreak will deal the desolate economy an additional blow, with far reaching consequences that we can only imagine at this point.

reuters/Muhammad Hamed

Covid-19 in Nahost und Nordafrika

Belastungsprobe für eine instabile Region

Die globale Ausbreitung des neuartigen Coronavirus wird für den Nahen Osten und Nordafrika zu einer zusätzlichen Belastungsprobe. Vielerorts bestimmten politische und wirtschaftliche Krisen bereits den Alltag, sind staatliche Strukturen und Legitimität nur schwach ausgeprägt. In den fortwährenden Transformationsprozessen der Region könnte die Pandemie als Katalysator wirken. Die Corona-Krise wirft damit nicht nur Fragen zur Krisenreaktions- und Widerstandsfähigkeit der betroffenen Staaten und ihre Gesundheitssystemen auf, sondern auch zu den politischen und sozioökonomischen Folgen in einer Region, deren Entwicklung immer auch Folgen für Europa nach sich zieht.

Konstantin Rintelmann

Political paralysis at the brink of an economic collapse

The immense challenges for Lebanon grow with its political inability to act

The killing of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani complicates the already stagnating formation of a government in Lebanon that has been pending for months. Hassan Diab is struggling with considerable domestic hurdles, but seems nevertheless determined not to step down. Political leadership is urgently needed: not only to implement economic reforms, but also in view of regional tensions. At the same Lebanon is sliding further into an economic crisis, the sheer scale of which politicians are only now beginning to understand. The failure of the central bank and politicians to mitigate the pervasive uncertainty by clear communication has severely damaged confidence in the currency, banks and financial system.

reuters

Der Tod von General Soleimani und seine Folgen

Wahrnehmung und Reaktionen im Nahen und Mittleren Osten

In den frühen Morgenstunden des 3. Januar 2020 wurde Qassem Soleimani, Kommandeur der Auslandseinheit der Iranischen Revolutionsgarden, durch einen US-Drohnenangriff bei Bagdad getötet. Das Regime in Teheran schwor blutige Rache. Ob mit dem iranischen Beschuss von US-genutzten Militärbasen im Irak der Nacht zum 8. Januar – und Trumps Verzicht auf militärische Vergeltung – die Eskalationsspirale wirklich endet, bleibt offen.

Development of the Middle East Gas: Opportunities & Challenges

The Konrad Adenauer Stiftung did publish, together with the Director of the Regional Forum for Consultancy and Studies, Brigadier General Khaled Hamadeh, the following report about “Development of the Middle East Gas: Opportunities and Challenges” with the aim of assessing the security situation in the Eastern Mediterranean, identifying the risks facing the gas industry loop from exploration to extraction and exportation, forecasting expected realistic scenarios, and coming up with recommendations that could be valuable for decision makers in the public and in the oil and gas sector. The content of the report was discussed afterwards with a selection of politicians, experts and academics within a joint workshop.